The four main theories on Obama's improvement:
- The Market Crash Theory. This one is pretty straightforward. Obama's rise coincides with news of a national financial crisis. Hard not to believe that it has some effect. Even beyond serving as yet another example of failed conservative policies, as Matt noted this morning, the McCain campaign doesn't like talking about the economy, while the Obama campaign--not to mention the Democratic Party in general--does.
- The Palin Crash Theory. Polling data confirms that Sarah Palin's favorables are crashing right at the same time that Obama is rising in the polls. After initial stumbles, Palin did appear to give the McCain campaign new energy, but now that same energy is quickly dissipating. Palin helped the ticket, but perhaps her new troubles are hurting it.
- The Obama Attacking Theory: It can now be officially said that Obama is on the attack. Currently, three quarters of his paid media consists of negative attacks on McCain. Further, Obama seems to have stopped complimenting McCain before criticizing him, and loosened the reigns on anti-McCain paid media groups. Collectively, these three changes represent a fulfillment of the "Obama needs to attack more" argument that I, and many others, have pushed for at last four months. Obama has gotten aggressive, and it seems to be paying off.
- The Convention Bounce Theory. I once heard Simon Rosenberg describe the belief that politics naturally operates in cycles as the "Harry Potter school of organizing," because it was based on the assumption that things would naturally--magically--turn around without the need for any real work. While I share Simon's skepticism on natural pendulum swings in politics, it is true that conventions are the most free media a campaign receives during an election cycle, and so campaigns should naturally perform better during and immediately after the period of free media. Once the free media is removed, the campaign should experience a backslide. So, while I agree with Simon's overall thesis, in the case of conventions there just might be a simple, reasonable explanation for an inevitable bounce then fade pattern of convention polling: lots of free media helps you, especially when you control the message of that free media.
While I don't know how much each of these factors have contributed to Obama's recent improvement, I do have two pretty safe theories about the theories. First, it probably isn't the result of any one factor, since elections are complex systems that defy reductive explanations. Second, people will support whichever theory they personally spent the most time working on. In other words, if someone has been focused on the financial crisis, they will favor that theory. If someone has been focused on getting the Obama campaign to attack more, they will credit that theory. If someone has been focused on attacking Palin, then they will credit that theory. If someone is a historical polling junkie, they will probably back the convention bounce theory. Etc. Even though we can't ever know how much each factor has contributed, you can rest assured that the area you were focused on had the biggest impact.
A third safe theory about these theories is that there is no guarantee Obama's rise will continue, or that he will even keep the lead. We have seen at least four major momentum changes in the past month, and there are good reasons to expect even more. The situation looks decent right now, but relaxing and letting our guard down would be a terrible thing to do. |
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