House Forecast Update, 9/18 Update

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 14:12


The new House Forecast is up. The projection has tightened in focus, as I currently forecast a 13-17 seat Democratic pickup, compared to a 12-18 seat projection two weeks ago. Since the last forecast, there have been many category changes:

  • FL-08 upgraded from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-up"
  • IA-04 upgraded from "not competitive" to "Likely Republican"
  • IN-09 upgraded from "Lean Democratic" to "Likely Democratic"
  • KY-03 downgraded from "Likely Democratic" to "Lean Democratic"
  • LA-07 downgraded from "Lean Democratic" to "Toss-up"
  • MS-01 upgraded from "Lean Democratic" to "Likely Democratic"
  • MO-09 downgraded from "Toss-up" to "Lean Republican"
  • NJ-07 downgraded from "Lean Democrat" to "Toss-up"
  • NC-08 downgraded from "Toss-up" to "Lean Republican"
  • PA-11 downgraded from "Likely Democratic" to "Toss-up"
  • TX-07 upgraded from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican"
  • WA-08 downgraded from "Toss-up" to "Lean Republican"

You can view the complete House Forecast here.

Also, check out the Better Democrats Act Blue page. Among other great candidats, potential progressive leaders like Darcy Burner (WA-08) and Alan Grayson (FL-08) are campaigns where your small donations can really make a big difference in building a progressive governing majority. Make a difference today.

Chris Bowers :: House Forecast Update, 9/18 Update

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Sounds about right (0.00 / 0)
a little conservative. But not too much.

I think you mean LA-06, by the way. LA-07 should be somewhere on that list though.

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power


I think you mean LA-06 (0.00 / 0)
LA-07 is Cravins-Boustany.

Disappointing (0.00 / 0)
That there are no Likely Ds yet for the GOP held seats, but not that there are no lean R for the Dem held seats.

My guess is that WV 02 is probably more of a lean R after the economy shakes out and with Byrd's active campaigning for Barth.

What, no html versions this year?  What else do you have on your plate? ;)


Bowers, here's a primer on Louisiana. (0.00 / 0)
LA-06 is going to be a knife-fight, but Cazayoux (D) will pull it out.  The GOP hopeful comes across as unbelievably insincere.  Plus, he's out of touch ... for evidence, take a look at his first campaign commercial.

LA-07 is Cravins - Lord Boustany.  Cravins' is one of the best natural politicians I've ever seen.  He's got the entire LA-07 Democratic political establishment behind him, which means that the unions in Lake Charles are lining up behind Cravins. Democrats win in Lake Charles ... the key is keeping it close in the Lafayette area while running up the score in Lake Charles.

Since Cravins is from Opelousas, one of the "suburbs" of Lafayette, it's a good bet that he will keep it close there.  The question then becomes whether the Lake Charles margin will be enough to put him over the top.  

LA-04 is Carmouche.  He's got a much harder road than Cazayoux and Cravins, simply because there will be a run-off in the closed Republican primary that's being held on October 4th.

That's right, I said CLOSED Republican primary.  That's your notice that Louisiana no longer has an open primary system for federal office.  


[ Parent ]
Need to add Annette Taddeo and Alan Grayson (0.00 / 0)
To the Bettre Dems page so people can give.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

GA-01: Bill Gillespie can beat Jack Kingston (0.00 / 0)
You forgot GA-01.  Bill Gillespie polled more votes in the Democratic primary than Jack Kingston did in the Republican primary. True, Bill's behind in fundraising (Jack has big food and big business in general behind him). So if you want to replace Bush-enabler Obama-baiter Jack Kingston

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=...

with a Wes Clark endorsed real Democrat, Bill Gillespie, for getting out of Iraq, for affordable health care, for renewable energy,

http://www.billforgeorgia.com

why not donate to Bill today?

 http://www.actblue.com/entity/...

Oh, and please add GA-01 to "leans Democratic".


How many Class of 1994 Gingrich Republicans are left. (0.00 / 0)
1)John Shadegg(AZ-3)
2)George Randanovich(CA-19)
3)David Weldon(FL-15)retiring
4)Jerry Weller(IL-11)retiring
5)Ray Lahood(IL-18)retiring
6)Mark Souder(IN-3)
7)Tom Latham(IA-4)
8)Todd Tiahrt(KS-4)
9)Ed Whitfield(KY-1)
10)Frank LoBiondo(NJ-2)
11)Rod Fregulsyen(NJ-11)
12)Walter Jones(NC-3)
13)Sue Myrick(NC-9)
14)Steve Chabot(OH-1)
15)Steve Latourette(OH-14)
16)Frank Lucas(OK-3)
17)Phil English(PA-3)
18)Zack Wamp(TN-3)
19)Mac Thornberry(TX-13)
20)Tom Davis(VA-11)retiring
21)Doc Hastings(WA-4)
22)Barbara Cubin(WY-3)

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