A Different Look At The Swing States

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 16:09


Here is a slightly different sort of swing state chart than the one I produced this morning. In addition to including the doen or so state polls that came out lthis afternoon, this char includes only polls conducted entirely from September 10th forward. Also, with the exception of Montana and North Dakota, which do not have polls within the past week, it includes all states that one campaign or the other is targeting with paid media.

Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%. If a state isn't listed, it isn't that close right now.)
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin Obama Total
Obama Base 183 183
New Mexico 5 50.7% 43.3% +7.4% 188
Oregon* 7 48.0% 41.3% +6.7% 195
Michigan 17 48.0% 44.0% +4.0% 212
Wisconsin 10 49.0% 46.5% +2.5% 222
Minnesota 10 47.0% 45.7% +1.3% 232
Iowa 7 44.8% 44.8% Even 239
Pennsylvania 21 46.0% 46.0% Even 260
Colorado 9 46.0% 46.4% -0.4% 269
Indiana 11 46.0% 47.5% -1.5% 280
Virginia 13 45.2% 47.2% -2.0% 293
Florida 27 45.4% 47.6% -2.2% 320
Ohio 20 44.5% 46.9% -2.4% 340
Nevada 5 46.0% 49.0% -3.0% 345
New Hampshire 4 45.0% 48.0% -3.0% 349
West Virginia* 5 45.0% 49.0% -4.0% 354
Missouri 11 44.3% 50.0% -5.7% 365
North Carolina 15 44.0% 50.0% -6.0% 380
McCain Base 158 158

* = Not currently targeted by paid media

This chart suggests a different picture than the one I posted earlier this morning. The most significant differences are:

  • Iowa is a toss-up, rather than solid Obama. More polls will be needed to confirm this, however.
  • Obama is close in Florida, rather than being blown out
  • New Hampshire is a bigger worry sport than I had previously concluded.
  • New Mexico isn't really in play, and I won't be surprised if one or two campaigns pull their paid media from the state soon.
  • I really don't understand why neither campaign is running ads in West Virginia.
  • Even though I have been dubious at times, Indiana and Minnesota really are in play.

I have to wonder if it is wise for the Obama campaign to continue advertising in Missouri while ignoring Minnesota altogether. Poll after poll shows that Obama is down by a signficant amount in Missouri, while poll after poll shows that Minnesota is tight. Feels to me like the backdoor is being left open.

What do you see in these numbers?

Chris Bowers :: A Different Look At The Swing States

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A Different Look At The Swing States | 30 comments
NH will go for Obama (4.00 / 1)
I don't think there's any way New Hampshire is as close as any of the other swing states, let alone with McCain ahead.  Obama will win there at least as well as Minnesota.
MCsame is loved in NH... he won there twice (4.00 / 2)
That state is like 2 separate states in one .

The area North of Concord is pure GOP.

The Democrats have to win overwhelmingly in Manchester, Portsmouth, Nashua, Keene, but you have  a lot of transplanted MA residents who left, among other reasons, because they were not part of what I would say MA represents.

It is going to be close in NH and I'll be going up there in October to canvass.

 

[ Parent ]
One part of NH that surprised me (0.00 / 0)
when I worked for Dean in 2004 was Berlin.  I think they are so economically depressed up there Obama has a real shot of peeling off a lot of votes that went to Bush twice.
[ Parent ]
Don't we need to see some more NH numbers? (0.00 / 0)
Your conclusion here is based entirely on the ARG poll, which is the only post-9/10 poll available for that state.  CNN had Obama up 51-45 recently, and even though it missed your 9/10 cutoff by a few days, it was still post-GOP convention.
Iowa is strong Obama (4.00 / 7)
You have taken one Iowa poll from someplace I've never heard of and elevated it to make Iowa a swing state just because it's the only one that meets your date cutoff. Sorry I'm not buying that without multiple credible confirmations. It's not any more believable than those polls showing Illinois and New York within single digits.  
and it has bizarre methodology (0.00 / 0)
Who conducts a Presidential preference poll by asking 13 questions, then asking about Hillary Clinton, and only then about who you will vote for in the Presidential election?


New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.
[ Parent ]
West Virginia (0.00 / 0)
Only conclusion I can make is they had some internals that were less than desirable and decided not to make the investment.

It is a shame because I think with a reasonable investment of resources, and perhaps getting the big dog on the ground out there a few times it could put the state in play.

History (4.00 / 1)
I imagine they were looking at Bush's blowout wins there against Gore and Kerry, too.
[ Parent ]
But they are running ads (0.00 / 0)
Chris is just wrong here. They are running paid media in the state. I read that a few weeks ago. I suppose they could have pulled it by now. But the other thing is the paid media for SE OH, SW PA, and VA already reaches something like 60% of the WV population. So it's just wrong to say they aren't. That's probably why Obama is as close as he is there.  
[ Parent ]
Yes... and no. (4.00 / 1)
Yes, both campaigns did run ads here earlier (IIRC, in July).

According to the media maps I've researched, the bulk of the West Virginia is reached via in-state markets.

Much of SE Ohio is reached from a W.Va. media market. A little bit of W.Va. is reached via a PA market, a fair number of counties from the DC market, and one county from a VA market.

Here's a map of West Virginia media markets if you're curious.

They call me Clem, Clem Guttata. Come visit wild, wonderful West Virginia Blue

[ Parent ]
Thanks! (0.00 / 0)
Didn't I hear (maybe from you?), that the campaign had decided to run some ads in Charleston to go ahead and cover the rest of the state? Or I guess they didn't go through with it.

I assume they have no paid staff there right?  

[ Parent ]
Both campaigns are running ads in Charleston-Huntington WV Market (0.00 / 0)
I live in WV and both campaigns have ads several times a day.  It may be to reach southeast Ohio, but they're covering at least our part of WV.

Also, two recent polls (since the RNC) have Obama trailing by only 5 pts and 4 pts respectively.

If Obama makes 2+ appearances and lets Bill Clinton stump for him here, he has a very strong chance to win WV's 5 electoral votes.

In a good conversation everyone speaks. In a great conversation some even listen.

[ Parent ]
How organized (0.00 / 0)
is the party there? Have you guys started thinking about your GOTV operation?
[ Parent ]
Nothing I can believe (4.00 / 2)
I think there's still too much convention churn in these polls to make them reliable. They're lagging the small but clear movement away from McCain (toward undecided or Obama?) and the decisive drop in Palin's favorables this week.

In particular, I don't believe Pennsylvania is dead even. My rule of thumb is PA should be +/- 5pts better for us than OH and +/- 1-2pts better than MI. Therefore, something's not right in the chart with OH at -2.4, MI at +4.0 while PA is even.

Self-refuting Christine O'Donnell is proof monkeys are still evolving into humans

I heard resources WERE going into WV... (4.00 / 2)
Also, a lot of the paid media in the surrounding states also gets played in WV.
That's a good point (4.00 / 1)
I dare say that most of West Virginia is served by media markets in Ohio and Virginia.  They're probably seeing plenty of ads.
[ Parent ]
Um... not so much so. (4.00 / 1)
We're pretty much an island unto ourselves in most of the state: Map of West Virginia media markets.

Some of Ohio is served by W.Va. media markets... and we tend not to associate and more than we have to with those folks in the "other" Virginia. ;-)

They call me Clem, Clem Guttata. Come visit wild, wonderful West Virginia Blue

[ Parent ]
Palin cancels California events (0.00 / 0)
I just saw this (love me some Google news) and since I'm a Californian I found it interesting - Palin cancels two big events in California. The SFGate thinks this may because of recent polling showing Obama with a huge lead in CA. The McCain camp said it is scheduling issues but considering the size and supposed ticket sales...what would conflict with this if the interest was this impressive? Makes no sense.

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who was to star at two major California fundraisers and an Orange County rally for 15,000 next week, has canceled her two-day swing through the Golden State, campaign sources said.

/.../

Party insiders were distributing 15,000 tickets to her Sept. 26 rally in Orange County -- and fundraisers reported an almost instantaneous sell-out of her two $1,000-a-head Sept. 25 fundraising events in Orange County and Santa Clara.

Both fundraisers had generated such high ticket sales that the OC Lincoln Club event was moved to the Orange County Performing Arts Center, and the Bay Area event was moved from the Woodside home of Tom Siebel to the huge Santa Clara Convention Center.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

I hope putting in a partial quote is OK.

i hear (0.00 / 0)
she just postponed them back a week.

Insert shameless blog promotion here.
[ Parent ]
Agree with all previous comments (0.00 / 0)
I think all three states will be blue unless things go south for Obama in a huge way (which seems unlikely).  McBain/Palin aren't spending much or any time in either Iowa or MN -- Palin's doing an airport touchdown here in MN tomorrow but I interpret that as a slapdash gesture based on these recent polls.  I suspect the next round of IA and MN polls will again show McBain trailing especially given the current trend in the national polls.
Wait Until Next Week (4.00 / 2)
We'll get a decent picture of where the race is at next week. Of course, then the debates will be starting and the race will enter a new phase. I happen to think that phase will only benefit Obama, but it's possible things could shake the race up: like if Obama attacks McCain's integrity directly and allows an opening for McCain to attack back with righteous indignation about being a POW. It would be crap, of course, but it's a potential landmine. Also, I suspect Palin has one more positive bump in this campaign when she gives her closing statement. The only question is how bad she looks in the debate before she gets to deliver that closing statement.
I agree (0.00 / 0)
You can't give up on some of these relatively close states for at least another week, to see whether we are only seeing the McCain bump disappear, or if Obama is starting to pull away.  If Obama gains 4-5% more nationally, but doesn't make the same gains in the swing states like Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina, then it's probably time to give up on them.  But if McCain's lead continues to shrink in those states, I wouldn't give up on them yet.

We should have two goals here.  First, win.  Second, win big, to get a real governing mandate (and to make it tougher to steal the election again).  And you can't win big if you give up on too many states too soon.  We obviously don't want lose because we spread ourselves too thin trying to win in too many places where there really isn't a chance.  But I don't see them making a lot of mistakes, so I'll give theme the benefit of the doubt.

[ Parent ]
Can't believe MN would go McCain (0.00 / 0)
I dunno.  I just can't see it.  The polling between MN and WI seems all wrong.  If MN goes red and WI blue, I'll be gobsmacked.

Both states make it really easy to vote - you can register at the polls the day of the election.  (Gee, what an idea!?) The last time I voted, it turned out that my address had not been updated when I moved & I had been purged from the list.  No problem - just go to that table and re-register!

This is one reason I don't believe in the polling being done in these states - the high level of interest is going to translate into massive turnout, and I don't think there's any polling methodology that can predict this.

War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength; McCain/Palin 2008

I think Obama is advertising only in Wisconsin, whereas McCain is advertising in both WI and MN, (0.00 / 0)
so McCain's ads are going unanswered in MN.

I think.  Don't quote me on that.  But that would be a reason for MN to close while WI does not.  It's true MN leans D, more than WI even, but "leans D" does not always equal "will jump right into your lap for free."

[ Parent ]
One correction (0.00 / 0)
I see I am wrong about McBain/Palin spending time in Iowa -- they are.  Still don't see it going red this election.  
i heard from a campaign source (0.00 / 0)
that according to their internals WI MI and MN were tightening

for what that's worth

Then they need to spend some in Minnesota (0.00 / 0)
It would be awful to win every other Kerry state plus Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa only to lose because they assumed MN would be fine when it wasn't.
[ Parent ]
uh, Montana? (0.00 / 0)
dude, come on!

On twitter: @BobBrigham
Screw NH?? What's going on in Pennsylvania!!?? (0.00 / 0)
And Colorado, I thought Colorado was the must-win state for Obama. Polls like this morning's pollster.com on the heels of an entire week of drastic economic news that shoulda been favorable to Obama's numbers...Aaaaaarrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhh.
Don't write off Georgia (0.00 / 0)
Obama has been down as much as 26 points in Georgia; latest poll shows only 11 points down and climbing.

Obama has more offices in Georgia than any presidential candidate ever, including Jimmy Carter, who was born here. Many of them are now run by local volunteers, who are energized to elect Obama and Jim Martin to the Senate and GA-01 Bill Gillespie, GA-03 Stephen Camp, and GA-07 Doug Heckman.

Local Democratic party organizations are resurgent all over the state. Donate to your favorite Georgia Democratic candidate and help out. As a bonus, you can help get rid of Jack "flag pin" Kingston

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=...

and Lynn "uppity" Westmoreland

http://www.ajc.com/metro/conte...

by replacing them with Bill Gillespie and Stephen Camp. And supporting Georgia Democratic candidates supports Obama.

 

A Different Look At The Swing States | 30 comments
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