Atrios links to this polling showing Americans are mad at Republicans for this mess. I'm told that Democratic pollsters have shown lifts for Congressional Democrats across the board by about two points a week for the last two weeks, and the economy is the reason. Obama is also seeing the same lift. A Survey USA poll and an ABC Poll are both confirming that Obama has cracked 50 in Virginia, and he's also cracking 50 nationwide. If he can hold his Deep Blue firewall, he's got this.
New Mexico progressive Tom Udall is going to be a progressive Senator, up 20 points over his opponent, Al Franken is tied, and Jeff Merkley is running even to an exceptionally dirty Gordon Smith. This is a very bad sign for Smith, since his advantage in the race is that he's really well-liked, and that is no longer the case. Even Kay Hagan is ahead in North Carolina, though weakling Tom Allen is getting blown out by Susan Collins. Dissing your allies isn't a good strategy, Tom.
The DCCC isn't letting Alice Kryzan in NY-26 go unaided, they have put advertising up to help her take the open seat. Still, with the environment as it is, this is an unreasonably tight election; Democrats and Republicans in Congress have equally loathsome ratings, about 25-75 approval/disapproval.
I'm not a forecaster, I'm more interested in seeing how elections and policy interplay, which means that I'm constantly having to correct for my own bias to think that Democrats are going to do well in elections. Still, on a Congressional level, things have lifted quite a bit.
And if the polling is correct, and the public is mad at Republicans, Democrats should stop talking about fucking bipartisanship. Additionally, this is huge leverage for Democrats in the negotiations over the bailout. At least at the polls, Republicans are going to suffer for this if it goes badly, not Democrats. So it's worth it for Democrats to fight the organized crime that is the Bush administration and Republican Party.
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