Here is the latest swing state chart, using only polls with a majority of interviews conducted since September 20th (except for states that didn't have at least two polls conducted in that time frame, in which case I used the two most recent polls):
Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%. Before you ask, if a state isn't listed, it isn't that close right now.)
Let the good times roll. Obama clears 270 even without Minnesota, Maine-01, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Nevada, all states where the most recent polls give him a narrow edge. Further, Obama is breathing down McCain's neck in Missouri, Ohio, Florida and Indiana. When one considers that very few of these polls were taken since Obama's Thursday and Friday national tracking poll surge, it is possible that he leads in every single state listed here.
The important thing right now is to stay grounded. It is unlikely that Obama will maintain such a large edge all the way through election day, and we will inevitably have some real scares. The last two times Obama jumped out to a lead like this--following his overseas trip and the convention--McCain made back all of the ground in only one week. Further, debates could still be a trip-up for Obama-Biden, given that expectations will be so low for McCain in the economic debate, and that Palin only has to avoid setting the podium on fire in order to meet expectations. And, of course, even a victory is still just a step, not a destination, toward a progressive governing majority.
Still, these are great numbers, and hopefully bring a smile to your face this Saturday afternoon.
STATE BLOGS
