Select State Poll Snapshots In Perspective

by: Paul Rosenberg

Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 16:22

As tremayne has noted, Obama has clearly opened a significant lead in the tracking polls, which can only translate into good news on the ground in specific states. But that got me wondering about what we could reasonably expect to see in terms of the overall geography. Rather than an exhaustive look, like I've done before, the ongoing financial/political crisis hasn't left a lot of time for me, so I decided to look at a few key states, which I've collected in the following table. Ohio represents the ultimate traditional swing state and Virginia is the key new swing states in the South, while North Carolina is a "pinch me" swing states in the South, and Missouri is a "pinch me" swing state in the Midwest.

Here's what we see (discussion on the flip):

Paul Rosenberg :: Select State Poll Snapshots In Perspective

First a quick note: because of overlaps in polling times, the alignment of dates is not exact, but no more than one poll had more than one day of polling outside the range for each state.

The results are fairly easy to summarize:

(1) Every state but Missouri got worse for Obama from August to early September.
(2) Every state improved from early September to mid September.
(3) Every state but Ohio improved from mid September to late September (and Ohio slipped only 0.1%).
(4) The strongest moves since Summer have been in the "pinch me" states--Missouri and North Carolina, where 8-point deficits have shrunk to virtual ties.
(5) If Obama had surged as strongly in the key swing states as he did in the surprise ones, he would be virtually set to win the election today.

My final subjective comment on all the above is that once again, if Obama had run as a consistent populist, Ohio and Virginia would almost certainly be safely in his column today.

Tags: 2008 Election, Polls, state polls, (All Tags)

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Select State Poll Snapshots In Perspective | 4 comments

Or if he had run as a consistent populist, he would be doing worse (0.00 / 0)

Look, we know that Obama is not really a populist. So my view is that to pretend otherwise would have been counterproductive in the end, because he would not seem so sincere.

In any event, I don't see how you can draw any conclusions from the polling about what would have happened had he run a different kind of campaign.

by: ThomasPaine @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 15:31:57 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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You Can Look At History (0.00 / 0)

To answer your last question first, you can draw conclusions about these polls by comparing past history. In 1988, for example, Michael Dukakis lost badly in Ohio while Howard Metzenbaum--a GOP top target to defeat for re-election--cruised to easy re-election as Senator. Metzenbaum ran as a full-throated populist.

I don't expect that Obama could have equaled Metzenbaum's performance, only that he could have benefitted sufficiently to make Ohio "lean Obama" on a consistent basis.

Now to your first claim. Is Obama a populist? No. Truth is, he's not much of anything in particular. He is very much an empty vessel. But he very well could have made himself a populist vessel, as indeed he did for a crucial period in the primary season. There is no reason he could not have continued to do that.

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

by: Paul Rosenberg @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 15:42:22 PM CDT

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Gore (0.00 / 0)

Certainly running as a populist against his true nature didn't work out that well for Gore. But Obama is better at seeming sincere in general, so who knows.

Anyway, I'm not sure Paul was basing his conclusion merely on the polls in Ohio, but rather on the gap between Obama's numbers and those of someone like Sherrod Brown, who ran clearly as a populist.

by: thesleepthief @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 15:42:58 PM CDT

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Actually, Gore SURGED After Giving A Rip-Roaring Populist Convention Speech (0.00 / 0)

And immediately after that, he began back-peddling, as per the Versailles Dem's ususal perscription. It wasn't that folks weren't buy it. He simply stopped selling.

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

by: Paul Rosenberg @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 16:44:47 PM CDT

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