Palin versus Predator: The Freak Show Debate Tonight

by: Matt Stoller

Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 18:36


I'll try to live-blog it.  I have some admiration for both Sarah Palin and Joe Biden, for different reasons.  Let's start with Palin.  My read says that, far from most of our initial reactions, she's no cunning politician, she's really just a hockey Mom with little to no understanding of foreign policy matters, economics, or most importantly, the right way to spout political gibberish.  She's up against a legendary gibberish pusher, Joe Biden, a man so experienced and credible that he voted for the war in Iraq.  Both of these individuals have children serving in the military, which is actually quite refreshing.

Republicans are making noises about Palin going after Biden on foreign policy blunders, which sounds kind of ridiculous if you respect DC gibberish.  The problem is that Palin just can't do the plain spoken hockey Mom shtick without cue cards, so most of us are going to be watching with an immensely nervous sense of dread, like when you don't know where that sentence uttered in a wedding toast by that kind of racist drunk guy will end up heading.  You know, cringe-worthy.  Not that Bush isn't cringe-worthy, and frankly, I watched a performance of Dan Quayle's 1992 debate against Gore, and Quayle is friggin' brilliant compared to Palin or Bush.

Anyway, I guess I just have sympathy for Palin because I think she genuinely doesn't know what she's doing.  I don't think she's some religious right cipher - she didn't even know to dog-whistle to the Dred Scott decision when asked about Supreme Court cases, and that's basic stuff.  She's literally just kind of an apolitical hockey mom who happened to be picked for Vice President.  She's profoundly ignorant and incredibly and obviously mean, but in a weird sort of fresh way, different from the usual disastrous politicians we have to tolerate  She brings in an entirely different style of awfulness, a sort of real life 'Mr Smith Goes to Washington', only it's 'Mean Cheerleader Goes to Washington for No Reason'.

So anyway, I admit I'm behind on my Palin obsession, since I've been irresponsibly paying attention to this $700 billion give-away of our future to Wall Street.  But now I'm back in the saddle, and ready to watch the Britney-esque freak show continue.

Man, Biden talks a LOT.  Folks.

Matt Stoller :: Palin versus Predator: The Freak Show Debate Tonight

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Palin versus Predator: The Freak Show Debate Tonight | 43 comments
I'd rather there be no debate (0.00 / 0)

 The narrative right now is helping Obama immensely, and anything that changes the subject, such as this debate, has the potential to mess up Obama's momentum. And nobody NEEDS a change of subject more than McCain/Palin do.

 I don't know how much of the erosion in McCain's poll numbers is due to Palineptitude, but if she delivers a semi-competent performance tonight, spiced with a few well-rehearsed zinger soundbites, we might start seeing McCain's numbers stabilize or even rise. Palin needs a reboot, and this debate gives her one.

 So when McCain demanded that the debate be dumbed down for Palin, or they'd pull out, maybe Obama should have just let them...  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

I doubt it (4.00 / 1)
...but if she delivers a semi-competent performance tonight, spiced with a few well-rehearsed zinger soundbites, we might start seeing McCain's numbers stabilize or even rise

Even if Sarah manages to steal the show with a "cutesy" quip, one liner and avoids a moose in the headlights moment, this debate will not be a game changer for McCain. This is a debate, not a rah-rah convention.

People are expecting to see someone who has command of the issues and a readiness to step into the Presidency if need be. I don't see how Sarah can achieve either tonight, even if she manages not to confuse her talking points, her knowledge of the issues is shallow.

Even if she does well, Sarah's performance will not undo the narrative about her that is well established (and described in Matt's post).

The best the McCain camp can hope for tonight is that they don't lose another big swath of voters due to Sarah Palin's performance.

That said, I'd love to see Joe win this one big! GO JOE GO!

[ Parent ]
and that other guy... (4.00 / 1)
One side effect of the single-minded obsession with Palin's debate performance is that the fact that Biden's a really, really good debater has gotten lost in the shuffle. All I hear anyone say about Biden is 'I wonder if he comes off as an asshole for being so much smarter than Palin.' So in a weird way, the expectations are pretty low for him. Of course, they're below the waterline for Palin... But so I think the most likely outcome is that they both come off surprisingly well, Biden because he is certain to 'win' the debate by any reasonable objective metric not calibrated to the ridiculous expectations game, and Palin because she is likely to be able to give grammatical answers to at least some of the questions. That would be a wash. Which would be a win for Obama, as McCain/Palin chances to close the gap continue to dwindle.
Wash is a win for Palin tonight... (0.00 / 0)
A "wash" means she was able to hold her own... ie, she looks like a credible person who could be VP, even if she loses on points.
[ Parent ]
But does that help McCain beyond the margins? (4.00 / 3)
I'm not sure that it does. Especially when he and Obama still have two more debates still to come. I continue to believe she probably helps with base GOTV and not much else beyond perhaps a decent showing tonight making her a wash with indies and moderates. People will still decide by the top of the ticket.
[ Parent ]
I agree (0.00 / 0)
Is her job to rebuild her profile or help McCain get elected?  I think she should relentlessly attack Obama.  Turn every foreign policy question into an attack on Obama's experience, for example.  They won't replay the questions on the network news, they'll replay what SHE says.  
[ Parent ]
That would be my plan (0.00 / 0)
But the suggestion is she is going to attack Biden directly.
[ Parent ]
Right (0.00 / 0)
Let's say Palin overperforms--ie doesn't lose control of her bodily functions--that'll be the BIG STORY for a day or two and conservatives will be crowing and McCain's poll numbers will move not at all, because his credibility on the economy will still be in the dumper.

Palin wasn't responsible for his decline and she can't be responsible for his comeback.


[ Parent ]
I don't think she's done McCain any favors, though. (4.00 / 1)
Between his own idiocy, her idiocy, Friday's debate, and the huge focus on the economy Obama's got to be seen as the safer bet at this point.
[ Parent ]
No doubt (4.00 / 1)
But whatever the primary cause of his decline (I'd argue it was McCain's response to the economic crisis), I just don't see a big upside for the McCain camp tonight.  
[ Parent ]
I agree. (0.00 / 0)
Unless Biden says or does something incredibly stupid or Palin manages to say something incredibly brilliant, I don't think this is going to change much of anything.
[ Parent ]
You don't think... (0.00 / 0)

 ...that at least SOME of McCain's decline in the polls is due to Palin's utter incompetence, and genuine FEAR of her actually becoming president?  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn
[ Parent ]
Not necessarily (0.00 / 0)
From my point of view, they might both exceed expectations, and thus in that respect it may be a wash. On a 1-10, if Palin goes from a 2 to a 4, and Biden from a 5 to a 6, Biden's still winning 6 to 4.  I think she'll do well enough for the media to say "It wasn't that bad, but was it good enough?" I just don't think there's any way that she can match Biden on points. In a way, the low expectations hurt her, in that her upside is thus limited.  There's no way she's going from a 2 to an 8 tonight and matching or beating Biden.  

Maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part, but the expectations right now are not low relative to thriving, they're relative to surviving. Even if Palin does that, and Biden does the same, the narrative will then be "Palin survives debate," rather than "Palin holds her own."

[ Parent ]
credible? (0.00 / 0)
It's inconceivable to me that she could come off as a credible VP. It is possible, though, that she could beat media expectations. But given that VPs are usually pretty immaterial to the outcome of elections, I don't think that counts as a win for McCain, who would still be losing to Obama without Palin's help.

I am girding for a (maddening) "Palin ran the gamut and came out alive" media narrative. But I am not expecting it to help McCain much.

[ Parent ]
Alternate spin (4.00 / 2)
Wash is a win for Obama, because the McCain campaign at this point have to change the dynamics of the race or they lose and this is one of very few opportunities to do that.
[ Parent ]
I agree (0.00 / 0)
Expectations aren't just about being high or low, they're about magnitude.  Everyone's been ignoring Joe Biden (and when they're not, they're talking gaffes/sexism, which lowers his high/low expectations), which sets him up very well, because I cannot see this being a victory for Palin.  Biden simply will not do badly.  I'm sure they've coached and tested and focused him to death, he's too polished in controlled situations like debates, and has too much experience in these situations.  

Even if Palin does well, the natural comparison will be to Obama/Biden, and you know what? McCain/Palin will never win that test, so even if she exceeds her measured expectations, Biden coming out and demonstrating proficiency, competence, and pivoting to the huge issues in a polished manner will make this a draw, at best for Palin.  

Unlike some people, I really don't think Palin will do well.  As coached as she may be, and as able as she seemed in the Alaska gubernatorial debates, she's going to have to do two things: 1) discuss a variety of detailed national and global issues, and 2) discuss them somewhat spontaneously, no script or teleprompter assistance.  Given what we've seen with Gibson and Couric, though it's not a debate format, I don't think she's shown she can do those things in concert successfully.

[ Parent ]
She's real (0.00 / 0)
For better or worse (obviously, I would argue much, much worse) what you see is what you get.  There's no centrist buzzwords like "compassionate conservatism" or "maverick" or whatever.  While I disagree with Matt in that I think she's cunning, I do she's just in over her head, especially because the McCain camp keeps her in the campaign equivalent of an iron lung.  

She strikes me as the stereotypical mean girl - cunning, but not political, as she has no real ambition, per se, just mean spirited and personally vindictive, with no real principles - just superficial beliefs. When it comes down to it, people will see (and, judging my her favorables, are seeing), that she's real, yes, but her reality is lame conservative fluff, and outside of wingnuts with persecution issues, even Republicans won't ultimately want that for the Vice Presidency (and probably Presidency if McCain bites it).  

watching with an immensely nervous sense of dread (0.00 / 0)
speak for yourself! Late night comedy should be this good. :)

Palin, while a sympathetic character because she is so clearly lost in all this, its very easy to enjoy her suffering because she's so haughty, a real stupid snot.

Together you could say she's supersillyous!

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Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

every time I start to feel bad for her (0.00 / 0)
I think of those "Let me tell you something about Barack Obama" and "I guess that's like being a community organizer" lines, and the blood starts to boil again, and I want nothing more than to savor her failure.

vodamusic.com
[ Parent ]
It occurs to me (4.00 / 3)
People will think Biden is arrogant and condescending no matter what he does. He might as well be arrogant and condescending. At the beginning of the debate he should congratulate her for being the first women VP nominee of the Republican party.

Then he should tear into her like a hyena.  

There may be something to that (0.00 / 0)
It's reminiscent of West Wing Season 4, when they basically told Bartlet that he was going to be seen as an arrogant, elitist Ivy League liberal no matter what, so run with that, feel comfortable, and take it to your opponent.  The Democratic base sure would love it, and I'll all for that.
[ Parent ]
Don't know about "people",` (0.00 / 0)
but the pundits already decided he'll be condescending and worse. How does any person of average intellect speak to a ridiculously overambitious frigging idiot, they don't explain.  
[ Parent ]
"Mean Cheerleader Goes to Washington for No Reason" (4.00 / 1)
is playing on Turner Classics this weekend.  Introduction by Robert Osborne.

vodamusic.com
Palin dangerous (4.00 / 2)
Palin is dangerous not because she's a right wing cipher, but because if she becomes President, she will be 100% controlled by right wing forces. It's Cheney and Bush again.
Yes (0.00 / 0)
And she is a religious extremist. She may not be able to coherently discuss the reasoning behind the religious rightwing nuts' arguments, but she believes strongly in those religious beliefs and has shown that she would inject them into governing.  
[ Parent ]
Quayle (0.00 / 0)
Funny you should mention Quayle's 1992 performance.  In 2000, my wife and I watched a CSpan replay of the Bentsen-Quayle 1988 debate, and Quayle really didn't too badly.  That one moment was a killer, and his "that was uncalled for!" response was laughable, but he did not look like an idiot for the most part.  

The debate that literally scared me was Bush's first 2000 debate.  It seemed like he had absolutely nothing to say.  Oh, yeah, but Gore sighed and rolled his eyes.  

Agree with you about Palin (0.00 / 0)
In the mid 80's Ispent a winter in Paris and went to the Egyptian rooms at the Louvre a lot. All those beautiful sculptures with Buddha faces and I was thinking mankind sure has progressed. Look at people's faces now.

Then I went into another room one day and all the faces were modern! anxiety, fear, cunning, awareness of how they would be portrayed so presenting the best face possible. I thought, "WTF happened here?" Well it was Amenophis (Iknaton III or IV or whatever) who dispensed with the priests, set up a one god (first monotheist), changed the capital city,and a lot of other things I have forgotten. All went back to the past after he died, of course.

What has this to do with Sarah Palin? Well her face when we met her was pretty untroubled looking. No inner conflict was digging lines in there that would have detracted from her looks. she is blessed with a beautiful and aligned body. If you have become acquainted with Rolfing or Yoga then you know what I mean. Or the Palmer Method of chiropractor practice. Joe DiMaggio had that kind of body if you ever saw him play. And it produces a kind of unshakeable confidence as these people have never slumped in chairs in school or elsewhere to develop bad posture. (Think McCain.) Obama has it. Lately Palin's face has been marked with lots of insecure expressions that are new to her. She faces a woman like Couric and she can't use her polished presentation of beauty queen, hockey mom, sexy etc as Couric is very pretty, modulated, informed and sexy in a very classy studied way. She is now beginning to become acquainted with her inner conflicts on her positions that contradict each other. Her ignorance is being displayed to the world and this is shameful to her. McCain picked the beauty queen and now is tired of her and is treating her poorly.

I wouldn't put it past her to turn to the camera and say"Listen folks. I don't know anything about all this but I do know........" and run with it.  

she was so star struck when Ivana Trump came to Alaska (4.00 / 1)
she lied to her husband, told him she was going to Costco, went to J.C. Penny's instead to see Ivana Trump peddling perfume. Palin said We want to see Ivana because we are so desperate in Alaska for any semblance of glamour and culture.

Yea she came up in the world being governor, but getting picked as VP is like a fairy tale come true for her, the last 3 weeks a whirlwind of glamour and culture. Katie Couric is glamorous as Trump, that is confusing for Palin.

[ Parent ]
Thanks Gov. Palin (4.00 / 1)
I like how she's revived the word cringe-worthy.  It used to sound awkward, even a couple weeks ago, now it's just another ho-hum word.  Er, compound adjective?

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It's Often Just a Phrase (0.00 / 0)
...that people remember from a debate.  Even at the time, for example, Lloyd Bentsen's JFK put down of Dan Quayle was the only thing that an awful lot of voters took from that debate.  This is why I fear Palen in this one time debate -- she is more likly to spout some water cooler wit that people will remember.  At least, Biden did pretty well in many of the early campaign debates.  I'd love to hear him give a few yes or no -- period -- answers.
don't forget (4.00 / 1)
Biden's quite the snark slinger himself. She starts messing around, he'll be free to open a can of whoop-ass on her. And he'll do it to.

"Would you like to mutter through another answer Governor?"

Man, we can only dream she starts something.

ALASKA!

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

[ Parent ]
Biden is the least of Sarah's worries (4.00 / 3)
The TV comics are watching and taking notes.

Watch her hands, that's were the parody begins.


"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."

She must have watched her hands in the videos (0.00 / 0)
and learned from her mistakes. She's a step ahead of Bush.


"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."
[ Parent ]
She's the class president. (4.00 / 4)
The kind of person who is socially intelligent enough to be the most popular girl in school, and ambitious enough to get elected class president, but also doesn't have the faintest interest in whatever the content of the job might be nor the analytical aptitude to be particularly good at it if she did care.  The kind who wants to be the president so that she's validated as queen and so no one else can be, but who beyond that is an empty suit.  Score settling and abuse of power might be interesting, but the actual deft use of power requires too much homework.

Her total absence as governor is the tell.  She stormed the capital, maintained enormous and potent approval ratings, but did very little with it.  The few things she did do (generally, going behind the back of potential allies directly to their constituents, thereby alienating them) were clumsy, unsubtle, and backfired.

She's not interested enough in politics to even know wingnut-speak.  She is a wingnut, but an apathetic and disengaged one.  She's more interested in Sarah Palin than in any conservative issue areas.  She's a friggin Pentecostal, a way-out-on-the-fringe evangelical, but honestly, I know a lot of those who are fringe by default, rather than through passion.  I can't actually comment on the strength of her faith, but I wouldn't be shocked if she were no more engaged with it than she is with her claimed political principles.

And finally, Mean Cheerleader Goes to Washington For No Reason is brilliant.  I don't actually think the mean part is quite right (that speech was written for her).  It would be more Prom Queen Goes to Washington For No Reason.  That sounds harsh because it sounds like it's holding her beauty against her, and/or implying that because she's beautiful she isn't smart.  What I'm trying to capture though is the Vain angle.  I don't think she's mean so much as vain; self-absorbed in an egoic, uninteresting way.

Well, she ain't all the beautiful (0.00 / 0)
so even if you did hold it against her you wouldn't be holding much against her. Still it is the only thing about her that isn't below average.
[ Parent ]
Scarborough on TV just now (0.00 / 0)
basically questioned whether Palin is really conservative or just hungry for power.  This is because of her answers on favorite VP (Ferraro an obvious pander, but G.H.W. Bush is not the right choice either to a conservative), supreme court, etc.  

This is a dangerous development for her -- saying she's not a conservative anyway is a key step that allows conservatives to abandon her.

 

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

A bit harsh (0.00 / 0)
Joe Biden can be infuriating, especially when he's "questioning" Supreme Court nominees, but he's not a "gibberish pusher."  That charge might be leveled more appropriately at his boss. Besides, Biden didn't nominate himself.  Obama isn't troubled by his AUMF vote, probably because he would have done the same thing himself.
go joey go (0.00 / 0)
i think he'll do good. he has a way of making fun of himself, of calling out all his own flaws in a doofusy way. but then, i was one of the "Stop saying he was right!" people for the last debate, so i have no idea how this will be seen to have turned out.

"Ladies and gentlemen, I literally, Literally cannot for the life of me figure out when it's time for me to stop talking!"

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She Lacks Basic Cognitive Skills (0.00 / 0)
Processing Speed: she can be pretty slow on the uptake

Logic and Reasoning: I doubt she know what it means

Perception: see Logic and Reasoning

I bet if you could test Obama's, or Bill Clinton's, or Matt's, or most of those who post here, their cognitive skills would be really, really high.  Poor Sarah.

Stoller come on (0.00 / 0)
She may have been "chosen" but that doesn't mean she had to accept the offer. No one should feel sorry for someone whos ego and ambition could potentially put the U.S.A. at risk.
Remember (4.00 / 1)
"You can't blink." :)
[ Parent ]
Wow (0.00 / 0)
This post by Matt could have been written by Ru Paul.
TOO MUCH
about that "hockey mom" (0.00 / 0)
My brother says he read somewhere that none of Palin's kids play hockey. I just assumed Track must have played hockey in high school, but my brother says no.

Anyone know anything about this? Maybe Track used to play peewee league hockey or something, but quit in high school?

By the way, driving around Des Moines I have already seen one "Hockey Mom for McCain/Palin" bumper sticker.

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Palin versus Predator: The Freak Show Debate Tonight | 43 comments
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