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There has been a lot of talk so far this election cycle about both change and experience - much of it surrounding the Obama campaign in one way or another. The debate this morning kicked off with a long discussion about whether Obama is experienced enough to be President, and much of Obama's campaign has centered around his assertion that he will be able to bring about a post-partisanship style of governing that will move the country forward.
For Obama, these twin focuses are probably a wash - according to the latest CBS poll (492 DPV, MOE +/- 3, pdf), when asked whether it was more important for a presidential candidate to have the right experience or to have fresh ideas 40% said the right experience, and 44% said fresh ideas. 14% said both were important. As you might expect, most voters (80%) think Clinton has the right experience to be President, compared to only 41% who think Obama has the right experience to be President. 67% of Democratic primary voters think Obama will try new ways of solving the country's problems, compared to 42% who think Clinton will.
The CBS results differ, by the way, from last week's CNN poll that found Clinton leading Obama on both experience and change. The format of the CNN poll was different in that voters were asked to name the best candidate rather than rank each candidate individually (as in the CBS poll) and that may account for the difference. Or it may simply indicate sampling variation, or that one of the polls was a statistical fluke. Unfortunately, it's hard to say which poll that is without more data.
What seems clearer is that the focuses on experience and change (as opposed to say, a handful of key issues) may be hurting Edwards (pdf). Experience-wise, voters seem to see him somewhere between Clinton and Obama - 60% say he has the right kind of experience to be President. Change-wise, he is in an even worse position than Clinton - only 34% of Democratic primary voters see him as someone who will try new ways of solving the country's problems. The results of the CNN poll parallel the results here for Edwards. He finishes between Clinton and Obama on experience, and third on change.
This puts Edwards in a tough spot. He can't really challenge Obama on experience without strengthening Hillary Clinton's position in the election, and he can't really push Clinton on change without strengthening Obama's position. But he also can't afford to let Clinton become the experience candidate and Obama become the change candidate if the election will be dominated by issues of change and experience.
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