So it's a lazy Sunday, and the Presidential race looks like it'll come down to environmental factors. I put up a post about four months ago (can't find it now) in which I basically echoed the thesis that Obama would win if the economy melted down prior to the election, but would only probably win if it didn't. I'm not good at predicting electoral outcomes, and despite giving out mounds of advice, I don't believe in backseat strategizing. I think you execute based on what you know, and that the Obama team has done. Given the financial crisis, this strategy is doing just fine - the country wants a steady centrist hand on the tiller. And now the 60 vote threshold in the Senate is possible, with Liddy Dole 'certain' to lose according to McCain officials and McConnell getting pounded in the polls.
So what does this mean? Well, I don't really know, but I'm going to assume that the Senate, as the most conservative institution on our Federal level, will be a major breeze to the right in terms of health care, trade agreements, civil liberties, economic justice, etc. Let's then examine the playing field for 2010; the environment for 2010 is unpredictable and probably chaotic, with a sharp recession on its way and a credit crisis here now.
I'm particularly interested in possible primaries to the Democrats, the party that the lobbyists are going to fete repeatedly and intensely in 2009 and 2010, much to our chagrin. I'm sure there will be retirements, but here's the list of Democrats up for reelection.
Now, here are my first impressions, very lightly held. Primary challenger races could emerge in Hawaii, Maryland, Washington, Colorado, or New York. In Hawaii, Akaka had a right-wing challenger from Ed Case, who ran basically on age and race (white versus native). That could happen again, Inouye is quite old; hopefully he'll retire and make room for some excellent progressives in Hawaii to move up. In Maryland, Mikulski was a liberal force earlier in her career, but she has become an out of touch and generally conservative Senator, though she is still quite popular. In Colorado, Salazar has basically ignored and marginalized progressives, stumping for Lieberman and voting badly on pretty much every piece of legislation possible. Colorado progressives though are still quite scared of challenging him, because they perceive that he fits the state well. In New York, the popular Senator Chuck Schumer's nightmare scenario is a Wall Street billionaire running against him as a populist, making alliances with the progressives who right now do not believe they have enough power to challenge him. In industrial Indiana, Bayh is way out of step on trade and the bailout, but I can't imagine Indiana Democrats challenging him and throwing the seat to a possible Republican. Boxer, Dodd, Dorgan, Feingold, Leahy, Lincoln, Murray, and Reid seem safe from primary challenges.
If I had to guess, I'd predict that there will be very few primaries in 2010, because the expense of such a race and the challenge of taking on a Democratic machine. And most of the challenges will be at the House level. Still, it's worth looking at the map a bit, because potential candidates are right now thinking seriously about what to do. What do you think?
... Mikulski and Obama's replacement in Illinois are attracting a bit of chatter. If it's Duckworth in IL, I do think there's a strong possibility of a primary race.
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