I've been posting daily poll warning threads recently, and looking at the comments in Quick Hits on the tracking polls, clearly I need to keep doing so. There is nothing wrong with worrying about daily tracking polls--I do so, too. The key is to know what to worry about, and what to ignore.
Helpful tips for watching daily polls in the extended entry.
8.5% is the maximum victory: First, as I warned on Monday, please keep in mind that an 8,5% national victory is the maximum. In the last sixteen national elections (U.S. House and Presidential), the largest victory was Bill Clinton's 8.51% victory in 1996. The simple fact is that no one wins by double digits anymore. This goes for the large Republican victories in 1988 (President--7.72%), 1994 (5.9%), and 2002 (4.6%). It also goes for the large Democratic victories of 1992 (President--5.56%), 1996 (President--8.51%) and 2006 (7.9%). "Landslides" are now 5-8% national victories, not anything larger. Given that a very real percentage of Democrats and Independents won't vote for him because he is black, it was always absurd to think that Obama was going to break this mark. When Obama reached an 8% national lead, the only place for him to go was down.
Polls aren't static: Second, as I warned yesterday, even if you accept that it is impossible for Obama's lead to continue rising, don't expect it to remain static, either. Polls are using non-static means (statistical ranges with margins of error) to measure a non-static subject matter (public opinion). So, when there is nowhere to go but down, when the polls inevitably start moving again, it isn't a shock to see them move down.
Peaks are called that for a reason: Within the last three days, Obama had surpassed or equaled his all-time high in every single tracking poll: Research 2000 (+12% two days ago), Gallup (+9% yesterday), Rasmussen (+8% yesterday), Battleground (+7% yesterday), Hotline (+7% three days ago), and Zogby (+3% yesterday). With Obama hitting his all-time high in four tracking polls yesterday, one two days ago and one three days ago, for both of the reasons mentioned above, the idea that his standing in these polls was gong anywhere but down is wishful thinking. When dealing with polls that have a track record of several weeks and, in some cases, seven months, it is highly unlikely that a record will be immediately followed with another record. This is especially given the two reasons explained above.
Less grandiose, and more specific to the Hotline poll, keep in mind that it shifted 4% toward McCain in a single day (yesterday). That is a shift of 11-13% in favor of McCain for Monday's individual day of polling from Friday's individual day of polling. When Monday's polling drops out of the averages (Friday morning), then let's see where the poll stands. Given the absurd one-day shift, I have a feeling Friday will snap back to Obama.
There are good reasons to be worried about polling in this election. For one thing, my research shows that even polling averages miss the final margin by an average of 2.0%, meaning that a lead of less than 2.0% isn't a lead at all. Second, until about three weeks ago, the campaign was still in that 2.0% range, meaning that Obama's lead is very recent and thus not very stable. New supporters are the shakiest supporters of all. Third, if 8.5% is an unattainable maximum, and 2.0% isn't a lead at all, then we are only dealing with a narrow 5-6% range where Obama can lead. And, as I said, Obama's movement into that range is new and shaky.
For the reasons I listed in the previous paragraph, and with the financial crisis now being forced to share headlines with McCain campaign attacks, there are good reasons to be worried. However, make sure you are worried for the right reasons, and not just wringing your hands because it feels comfortable to wring hands. Fretting over the Diageo-Hotline tracking poll, or even internals in that poll, is really foolish. Fretting over a 5% Obama lead national lead across either tracking polls or all national polls is also foolish. That is about as big as one should ever expect Obama's lead to be, and it still is as much of a landslide as any election has been since 1984. If you want to watch daily polls in our current age of politics and elections, then these are the margins you have to learn to deal with.
