Obama's Easy Path To 270

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 14:38


How easy is Obama's path to 270 right now? This easy (polling average methodology is the same one I use for my presidential forecasts):

Obama's Path to 270
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin Obama Total
D.C. 3 82.0% 13.0% +69.0% 3
Hawaii 4 65.5% 29.5% +36.0% 7
Vermont 3 57.0% 36.7% +20.3% 10
New York 31 56.3% 38.5% +17.8% 41
Illinois 21 55.0% 37.7% +17.3% 62
Maryland 10 55.3% 38.0% +17.3% 72
Massachusetts 12 56.0% 38.7% +17.3% 84
Rhode Island 4 46.7% 30.3% +16.4% 88
Connecticut 7 52.7% 37.3% +15.4% 95
Delaware 3 54.0% 39.7% +14.3% 98
Pennsylvania 21 53.3% 39.8% +13.5% 119
California 55 52.7% 39.3% +13.4% 174
Oregon 7 52.3% 40.3% +12.0% 181
Iowa 7 52.3% 41.0% +11.3% 188
Maine-01* 1 -- -- +11.2% 189
New Jersey 15 50.0% 39.3% +10.7% 204
New Hampshire 4 52.8% 42.8% +10.0% 208
Maine-AL* 2 50.7% 41.7% +9.0% 210
Washington 11 52.3% 43.3% +9.0% 221
Michigan 17 49.8% 41.5% +8.3% 238
Wisconsin 10 52.3% 44.0% +8.3% 248
Virginia 13 51.3% 43.3% +8.0% 261
Minnesota 10 50.8% 43.0% +7.8% 271

That is a pretty easy path to 271. Obama could lose 7.5% across the board and still win the election. Oh, and I really love how California is closer than Pennsylvania now. Ha-ha!

Chris Bowers :: Obama's Easy Path To 270

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Obama's Easy Path To 270 | 18 comments
California Prop 8 (0.00 / 0)
Speaking of California, I am very worried about the Prop 8 situation.  It will be a huge setback for those us in other Blue States to have voters come out and try to reverse marriage equality.  

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.
Just donated money... (4.00 / 2)
And posted a quick hit about it yesterday.  This would really taint Obama's win for me.  I have friends that are planning their marriage now and just assumed that Prop 8 would be defeated... and now it's looking iffy again and I fear that my friends will get screwed.

Ugh...

[ Parent ]
Good... (0.00 / 0)
This is sort of what I've been complaining about before.. It seemed like Obama's national lead wasn't being represented in his state lead... Now it appears that it does.

If MN is really the baseline state that is tracking with Obama's national lead (which seems absolutely weird... VA is better off than MN?  Really?), I guess we're in good shape.

two weeks (4.00 / 3)
I say that if these numbers are the same in two weeks then we'll win this. 26 days left until the election still seems like a long time.
Anyone else think that McCain is holding on to Wright until... (4.00 / 1)
About a week or a few days before the election?  I've been saying this for months, but why would they bring out Ayers but deliberately avoid Wright?

Wright is the only event, outside of the RNC, that substantially bit into Obama's numbers.  While it's been played twice already, now that it's sort of been forgotten about, I think McCain will try to spring it at the last second to basically create a minor bounce for himself going right into the election.

Agreed. (0.00 / 0)
Would be a decent explanation for why the RNC is still holding on to most of its money.
[ Parent ]
Maybe (0.00 / 0)
But I think you hit the nail on the head with "it's been played twice already". I imagine it will be like the Bush bounces, every single one lower than the previous - 9/11, Iraq starting, finding Saddam, re-election etc.
[ Parent ]
I wonder if there is a way for Obama to prempt it so that McCain bringing it up actually (0.00 / 0)
backfires on him. Obama would have to make McCain's use of Wright equate to a desperate, racist, hate-mongering, last ditch attempt to distract and sucker the American people and engrain that in people's minds before McCain uses it. McCain is also likely to spread a large lie about Obama and tie it in to the Wright smear so that Obama does not have time to counter and is on the defense for the last week.

Either way, I hope Obama is holding on to several tens of millions of dollars for a last week blitz that both bolsters him on a wave of optimistic change, and takes out McCain as the dangerous, unprincipled, and corrupted person that he is. He needs to do both to create that good feeling in the gut, while discrediting the bad feeling messenger.

Help support "CRASHING THE STATES"--a Netroots Film!

[ Parent ]
mark my words (0.00 / 0)
ads concerning wright will come out following the third and final debate.  
[ Parent ]
CA vs. PA (0.00 / 0)
This helps explain why I saw my first Barack Obama last night, during Bones, I think it was.

The anti-Obama 527 ads have been airing for a couple of weeks now, I think.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

Actually... (4.00 / 1)
Funny enough that's NOT why you saw the Bones Commercial... at least I assume so... the reason I assume that is that I saw the commercial and I live in Illinois... if he is in danger in Illinois then Election Day is going to be a LONG ONE...

I assume it was a national ad buy... I saw a few yesterday actually... One during the ABC nightly news (background noise while I was online) and then During Bones and I think Pushing Daisies as well.  

Which is awesome... it means that he made enough in fundraising to buy several national ads.  Nice!!!

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I Knew That (0.00 / 0)
I was just funnin' is all.  I read the FP DKos story on ad buys, saw the figures for "national", and drew the obvious conclusion.

Still, it's weird as hell, since, like the story said, there haven't been national ad buys in quite some time.  

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
Don't read Kos... (0.00 / 0)
DOn't read Kos so I missed that but will have to go check it out...

Yeah I was shocked to see it. The only campaign commercials I have seen  were Cable station during debates, et.  Very few commercials at all, its kind of spooky.

[ Parent ]
bizarro news of the week (0.00 / 0)
McCain is coming back to Iowa on Saturday and supposedly has opened eight more offices here:

http://www.desmoinesregister.c...

They do indeed have more "victory" offices open in Iowa now than two months ago:

http://iowa.johnmccain.com/con...

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

McCain (0.00 / 0)
Did not compete in Iowa in the primaries.  I cant imagine something that would piss off Iowans more than a presidential candidate challenging whether Iowa should be first race in the primary schedule.  Issues aside, Iowa will go for the guy who took the Iowa caucuses seriously over the guy who skipped straight to New Hampshire.  
[ Parent ]
The Democrats now seem more likely to take Virginia than Florida or Ohio (0.00 / 0)
Crazy :O
Go Keystone State! (0.00 / 0)
Truly, it brings a tear to my eye...

But, wait!  I thought Obama couldn't win the state with all the working class whites!  That's what all those PUMAs told me, and we know there were millions of them.

PUMAs ROAR! :P snerk

It's Ain't over 'til Nov. 4th (0.00 / 0)
I love it. But along with so many of you who are donating time/$$/effort to electing Obama, we can't let this one get away. Keep making calls, keep spreading the message. Remember, if we can demoralize the Republicans into anticipating a certain McCain defeat by election day, then we will depress their turnout efforts and all of a sudden Senate seats in Kentucky, Mississippi, Georgia, etc. are ripe for the taking.

I want to see two people, more than anyone else, cry on election day. 1) John McCain -- so that when he refers to Obama as "That One" he can be corrected to mean "President-Elect," 2) Joe Liebermann. WHen he sees the Dems pick up seats to a 60 seat majority that he can be kicked out of the caucus and backbenched with his buddies Graham and McCain.

Obama's Easy Path To 270 | 18 comments
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