On Term Limits

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Aug 20, 2007 at 20:15


According to the latest release from the Field Poll, Californians really like term limits:

While seven out of ten (70%) voters support the idea of limiting the terms of California's elected officials, likely voters in next February's primary election also support, by a 59% to 39% margin, an initiative that would modify the state's term limits law.

I have to admit that term limits for non-executive elected officials is one of the few issues where I can honestly see both sides of the debate. On the one hand, it makes sense to limit individual power in a representative form of government, especially since the power of incumbency is extremely difficult to overcome in an era of enormous legislative districts and expensive, paid media campaigns. However, on the other hand, elections themselves are supposed to be a check on the expansion of individual power in a representative democracy, and just because someone has been in office for a while does not necessarily make that person corrupt or otherwise dangerous to democracy.

I know there are other arguments on both sides of this debate, but I want to cut right to the chase. I think, in the end, if I am forced to choose, I am in favor of term limits for all city, county, state and national executive offices, mainly because executive offices are of questionable value for representative government in and of themselves. However, when it comes to parliamentary or congressional elective offices, I think in the end voter enthusiasm for term limits mainly strikes me as a form of whining and shirking of personal responsibility on the part of the voters. Elections are supposed to serve as term limits, and it seems to me that many voters are blaming the politicians who are elected by the people for staying in office, rather than the people who keep electing those same politicians. In other words, if the public favors term limits, but keeps electing the same politicians again and again, it feels like they are blaming someone else for their own problems, and I can't support that.

The current ballot initiative in California seems to justify me view of a confused electorate shifting responsibility elsewhere:

An initiative likely to appear on the February 5th presidential primary ballot will ask voters to reduce the total years a legislator can serve in both legislative houses from 14 to 12 years, but allow legislators to serve their entire 12 years in either the Assembly or the Senate. By a 59% to 30% margin, likely voters support this proposal. This represents a slight increase in support from last March when the initiative was favored 53% to 39%. Currently, majorities of Democrats, Republicans and non-partisans are backing the proposed initiative.(…)

One consequence of the new term limits initiative, should it pass, is that many current legislators, including the present leaders in the Senate and Assembly, would avoid being termed out of office next year. This is because the initiative contains a provision allowing legislators to serve up to 12 years in the legislative body in which they are currently serving, and while many have served a total of 12 years in both houses, they have not reached this threshold where they currently serve.

After voters were informed of this and asked what effect this would have on their support or opposition to the initiative, more than two-thirds (68%) say this has no effect on their opinion of the initiative. This compares to one in eight (13%) who say this information makes them less inclined to support the initiative, while as many (14%) say it makes them more inclined to support it.

So, let me get this straight-and I admit I could be reading the new proposed law incorrectly. Even though 70% of Californians are in favor of term limits, 59% are also in favor of a law that would allow every sitting member in the state legislature to avoid being term limited out for another twelve years, including many members who would have been term limited out next year. Wow-I mean, wow. What a bunch of whiners those who support term limits are. I mean, they like term limits, but also support a law that will allow their representatives not to be term limited out. It sounds like another case of where teachers suck, or Congress sucks, but people think their local teachers and local members of Congress are good. Basically, people are scapegoating an abstraction, and unwilling to look into the mirror. Or am I just being too harsh?

Chris Bowers :: On Term Limits

Tags: , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
On Term Limits | 18 comments
What do you expect? (0.00 / 0)
This is the sort of nonsense that governing through ballot initiative brings.  I'm surprised California doesn't fall into the Pacific just because of the sheer weight of the bullshit they come up with to put on a ballot. Anytime I worry politics in Kentucky is a mess, I always can thank God for California.

these are not the droids you're looking for (0.00 / 0)
By selling it as limiting the total time it appears like it strengthens term limits and is rising in the polls with the falling of the legislative poll favorability due to the budget tantrum by Senate Republicans.

On twitter: @BobBrigham

I must wholeheartedly disagree (4.00 / 2)
Chris,

I am surprised by your post, I would think you would come down  on the other side of the debate on term limits.

But, I believe people see term limits through whatever political prism they are most accustomed to. As someone who was born and bred in California politics, I firmly believe that the term limits that are imposed in California are one of the key factors in the grinding legislative process that is Sacramento.

The thing that is the most insidious about term limits is that it strips institutional memory away from those actually who are actually on the ballot. They have to leave or move up every 6 years, even if they are good at getting things done. Newly elected people must be fast tracked to leadership positions and as soon as they take office and once they take thier post only have a very small window in which to wield any sort of power. They have to begin fighting off lame duck status as a constant stream of newly elected assembly men walk in. Also, because of the referendums in California, understanding what hoops each bill has to jump through takes even more experience than in other places.

This teamed with the flabbergasting amount of gerrymandering in California (basically both sides agreed on incumbent protection at the last redistricting ... to the point where exactly 0 seats switched parties in either the house or senate in 2006 iirc)  means that new legislators need to almost immediately start planning for what the next step is when term limits are up. That means very strategic planning and more rancorous fights in the legislative process (especially when it comes to the budget, which i don't think has ever been turned in on time.) Those who do have the institutional memory in California are the staffs of the various offices (who more or less stay the same, if only reshuffled when term limited assemblymen leave) and the lobbyists who help write much of the legislation to make it through all the hurdles set up by propositions.

In a state as vast as California (the 6th largest economy in the world) this is not a smart way of doing business. What the legislators are trying to do with this is to allow those just elected not to worry about making the jump to the senate and actually legislate more, without having to worry about bringing home x, y and z for the folks to make the senate race just that much easier.

I for one hope this passes, if only so those who ARE elected to do the peoples business actually understand what they are doing and have more control of the process.


Good analysis, Jestyr (0.00 / 0)
One big problem in CA is the loss of institutional memory, especially around things like the budget.  Intelligent citizens realise that.  It really does take expertise, and it takes time to develop expertise. Term limits, coupled with slashing of legislative staff, was a disaster.  The alternative is for legislators to rely on lobbyists much more, and that is exactly what happened here.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

[ Parent ]
err ... oops (0.00 / 0)
wow, i completely misread you position on the term limits ... Just consider the last post more of a buttressing of your argument

rather than limits (0.00 / 0)
I'm toying with some form of making it progressively more difficult to win re-election each time.

Some kind of "incumbency tax" on the fundraising of the incumbent, which escalates each term in office.  The money could go (through some formula) to the declared opponents. 

The idea is to dull the incumbency advantage, which is mostly just name recognition and people preferring the devil they know.  That's not really a great reason to re-elect someone, but I think it is the choice a substantial number of voters make.

I mean, you get X years in office where your name will appear in the paper, interviews, on C-Span, etc, but your opponent only gets a couple months of meaningful media attention prior to the election. 

So this also has the effect of making running for office more difficult for non-millionaires and non-famous people. 

To make a more general point:  Term limits are problematic, but let's try and think of other solutions to the problems of incumbency.


on limits themselves (0.00 / 0)
If term limits there must be, for legislative positions they should be renewable after a term out of office. 

That would at least dull the damage done to the institutional memory by turfing all the senior people who know how things actually work. 


What kind of legislators has it produced? (0.00 / 0)
I think we need to start looking beyond the abstract and determine what actual impact term limits has had in a place like California. Has it produced a more diverse legislature, or a less diverse one? Has it produced more progressive Democrats, or more conservative Dems?

California's Democratic legislative caucus is very progressive, having promoted the landmark greenhouse gas and global warming act, having passed a full legalization of gay marriage (not civil unions, but outright equal marriage rights for homosexuals) as well as a truly universal health care plan. The equal marriage and universal health care bills were vetoed by Arnold in 2006, but I don't know of another Democratic legislature in the country that's passed both - MA and VT come closest.

Of that progressivity, how much of it is due to term limits? Is it coincidence or effect that CA has had Latinos as Speakers of the Assembly since the term limits began having an effect in the late '90s? I don't know the answers to this, but it's worth finding out before we make firm conclusions on the value of term limits to our movement.


Term Limits In California Have Been A Disaster (4.00 / 3)
They brought us energy deregulation, for one thing, and that's typical of what they produce--legislation written primarily by lobbyists and special interests because with politicians playing musical chairs, the special interests are the only permanent government left.

You may think it's great that term limits have brought us a whole series of Latino speakers, but what have they been able to do?  And who was gotten rid of before that?

A black speaker--Willie Brown--had real power.  He was there for the long haul.  But in hurry-up mode, it is difficult for a speaker to accomplish even one major piece of landmark legislation, let alone shape a whole structure of progressive legislation.

Finally, term limits weren't the only factor involved, but they certainly contributed to currently recurring budget mess.  So long as there were some Republicans who were in Sacramento for the long haul, they had an interest in doing deals across party lines, which facilitated getting things done.  This incentive has utterly vanished under term limits.

I am all for executive office term limits. I am dead set against legislative ones.

The reason is the same in both cases: because it serves to help them do their jobs better.  The executive needs to have fresh blood and new energy constantly infusing it. The legislature needs that as well, but not at the expense of losing its institutional memory, and its long-term initiatives in developing legislation that takes years to refine and perfect.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
I am in total agreement (0.00 / 0)
Term limits in CA are disastrous. Because of their extremely short limits (6 years in Assembly, 8 years in Senate), the loss of institutional memory, the shifting alliances, the constant jockying for the next seat, have all created a situation in which the massive progressive majority in the Legislature as a whole is neutered.

Add-in the absurd requirement that state budgets be passed by two-thrids majorities in both houses and you've got a recipe for disater, especially when you combine it with the extreme gerrymandering of districts in the state.

This change will help bring some institutional memory back to the Legislature. I support complete abolition of term limits for legislative positions but I also would be in favor of ways of making races more competitive to limit the advantage of incumbancy.

Also, it should be noted that relatively few of the sitting members are going to get 12 years added to their stays. Lots of them are maxing out right now, so you'll see most people getting 6-8 years with some more at 10.


[ Parent ]
I'm not saying term limits are great (0.00 / 0)
As an ardent support of the high speed rail plan, for example, I worry that a lack of long-term vision hurts that project and other good ones. Institutional memory and a grasp of issues counts for a lot.

At the same time, I think we should look at what kind of legislators it has indeed produced. Would we have this diverse, this progressive of a Democratic caucus without term limits? I think it's a very important question that we need to examine. With a Democratic governor and without the 2/3 rule, the progressive Democrats might well have accomplished MUCH more than they've been able to given those constraints.


[ Parent ]
What's The Point? (0.00 / 0)
More rapid one-time diversification of the legislature is a limited good, at best. It is, after all, the policies they pass that count the most.  Plus, if you take a closer look, you'll see that this has served to accelerate the decline of African-American representation.  So it's hardly an unadulterated gain in diversity.

As always, it pays to separate the transitory from the structural when seeking to evaluate fairly.  And in this case, the benefits have all been transitory, at best.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
I'm not sure that's quite it. (0.00 / 0)
In other words, if the public favors term limits, but keeps electing the same politicians again and again, it feels like they are blaming someone else for their own problems, and I can't support that.

I think it's more a way of blaming each other for each other's problems.

We have a lot of laws that we put in place because we don't trust each other to make responsible decisions. This is in that category.


Term Limits Promote Incompetence (4.00 / 2)
I understand that voters are frustrated with the status quo but organizing, not term limits, is the solution.

In my county we have term limits.  The result is staggering incompetence.  Neither the county council nor the county executive understand their obligations under state and federal mandates.  They misappropriate millions of dollars every year violating the law in the process.  Their incompetence also continues to embarrass and undermine the county's employees who have to put up with the politicians' shenanigans.

A state like California with a multi-billion budget requires at least some experienced law makers that have the wherewithal to exercise oversight and to write appropriations responsibly.  Experience requires time.  Term limits make it impossible to develop experience.

As for California, has anyone ever wondered why Democrats are running poor candidates on the top of the ticket?  Those guys rarely have enough charisma to run for class president.  If it had not been for term limits, unqualified candidates never could have made it to the top of the ticket. 

That's how we end up with Republican governors like Pete Wilson and Arnold Schwarzenegger who then manipulate the congressional redistricting.


solid analysis, but one addition (0.00 / 0)
The Field Poll tried to compensate for the Orwellian nature of this initiative, with its "limiting" term limits while letting the same gang hang around for another 12 years.  They asked if a "transition period" for current lawmakers would make you more likely to change your mind.  68% said it wouldn't change their vote, which means 32% said it would.  A third of 59% is almost 20%, which puts this down to defeat.  And the attack ads won't put it as kindly as a "transition period," they'll call it "an extreme power grab by those in power."  Considering that the initiative gets 67% support from Republicans, I'd say this thing is doomed. Conveniently, the above-mentioned California Majority Report post, proudly boasting that 68% won't change their minds when they hear the truth about the initiative, turned off comments.  CMR is a Democratic insider site where the spokesman for the Speaker of the Assembly often posts.

Insert shameless blog promotion here.

amending (0.00 / 0)
actually, reading the poll, it says 13% would change their minds on the intiative when given more information, while 14% said it would make them more likely to vote for it.  13% of 59% is about 7%, putting this in fairly dicey territory, around 52% support without a negative ad being aired.  If those opposed to this initiative tries to get their message out, it'll be a fight.  If the pro-term limits people control the air war, they probably win.  The other problem here is that tons of self-interested corporations and lobbyists and even unions have poured money into the pro side of the term limits initiative, making it a sort of in-kind donation to the current Democratic leadership.

Insert shameless blog promotion here.

[ Parent ]
Lame Duck Presidency (0.00 / 0)
I think that there is an argument to be made that Presidential term limits contribute to an ineffective and lame duck second term.

Go Ahead, Make It! (0.00 / 0)
It sounds pretty lame to me, since there was a de facto two-term limit right up until FDR broke it.

It seems much more likely that 2nd terms are less effective simply because a president's highest-priority issues are addressed in their first term.  The second term generally deals with left-overs, do-overs and things that are thrust upon them.

Frankly, if we were redesigning our constitution, I think a strong case could be made for a single 6-year term for President.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
On Term Limits | 18 comments
USER MENU

Open Left Campaigns

SEARCH

   

Advanced Search

QUICK HITS
STATE BLOGS
Powered by: SoapBlox