Extremely Disturbing

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 13:44

With today's plunge in the stock market, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has now fallen 42 percent over the last year. Just how bad is that?

It's nearly as bad as one terrible 12-month period from late 1973 to late 1974. Other than that, it's the worst decline since 1932.

These historical comparisons are best done in real - that is, inflation-adjusted - terms, so that's what we will use from here. In real terms, the decline since Oct. 9, 2007, has been about 45 percent. From the end of September 1973 to the end of September 1974, the S.&P. 500 dropped 48 percent.(...)

The worst 12-month period happened between June 1931 and June 1932, when the stocks fell 62 percent. (Mr. Shiller's data is monthly, so there was probably a 365-day period that was slightly worse than this.)

Given that this was published yesterday, we have probably blown past 1973-1974, trailing only 1931-1932. And there is reason to believe that it will continue to fall.

More in the extended entry.

U.S. intelligence analysts eavesdropped on personal calls between Americans overseas and their families back home and monitored the communications of workers with the Red Cross and other humanitarian organizations, according to two military linguists involved in U.S. surveillance programs.

The accounts are the most detailed to date to challenge the assertions of President Bush, CIA Director Michael V. Hayden and other administration officials that the government's controversial overseas wiretapping activities have been carefully monitored to prevent abuse and invasion of U.S. citizens' privacy.

Describing the allegations as "extremely disturbing," Sen. John D. Rockefeller IV (D-W.Va.), chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, said the panel had launched an inquiry and requested records from the Bush administration.

Rockefeller then said that after they are refused the documents, they will ask again, but not do anything else. And then, he also added that he intends to make sure if any illegal activity is found, he will lead the charge to change the law so that said activity becomes legal. That's what Rockefeller did for FISA, after all.

These are, of course, both extremely disturbing developments. Throw them onto the pile, I guess, as developments like these seem to happen all the time over the past few years. However, what is just as disturbing is that the Democrats who helped push this and other Republican laws through Congress will actually reap the electoral rewards of the failures of these policies. The Democrats who supported the Iraq war when it began, who supported Bush's tax cuts, who supported bankruptcy "reform," who supported the bailout, who supported illegal wiretapping, who supported torture, who supported unregulated trade, who supported confirming Bush's supreme court justices, who supported the Patriot Act--these are the same Democrats who will reap the most electoral benefit from the failure of these policies. Democrats are poised to make huge electoral gains again this year, but just like in 2006 the new members of Congress will line up behind the Blue Dogs and New Dems in record numbers. Consider that 24 of the 70 Bush Dogs are either freshman or sophomores. In other words, the same Democrats who helped Republicans cause the litany of disasters that we currently face will be the ones who benefit from the failure of those policies at the ballot box.

Maybe I am just being too cynical, and maybe progressives will experience a vast increase in power within the Democratic caucus next session. It is possible, because progressive organizing is improving, and because Democratic majorities will be so wide that Bush Dogs will see their power lessened. However, I find it enternally frustrating and extremely disturbing that the first Democrats to benefit from Republican collapses tend to be the conservative Democrats who facilitate the passage of conservative Republican policies. As such, even if we score huge victories this year, we need to remember that it still doesn't mean a progressive governing majority is in place. There is a lot of work left to do, and victory at the ballot box this year is still only a step in the right direction, not a destination. I'm still going to work my as off to make it happen, but my eyes are wide open when it comes to the continuing difficulties progressives will face.