Here are six election items of note for a rainy Monday night:
Lane Hudson Busts Fred Thompson
Fellow blogger Lane Hudson has filed an FEC complaint on Fred Thompson, arguing that Thompson has violating the "testing the waters" provision of FEC law in several ways. These violations include:
Raising $72,000 for the general election.
Using money for advertising, specifically Google Ad words
Repeatedly referring to himself as a candidate for President, even though he continues to raise money only for an exploratory committee
Signing long-term leases on office space.
Some of these charges clearly have merit, as they have raised red flags from FEC commissioners and election lawyers. It is also receiving a lot of press, as you can see here, here and here. The press surrounding this matter will continue to grow tomorrow. Stay tuned.
In Act Two, the candidates begin saturation television advertising in Iowa, New Hampshire and perhaps a few other early states. This process begins to reach those voters who are less attentive to politics and can move numbers more dramatically for candidates who begin with less recognition. Act Two of the 2008 race started early for Mitt Romney and Bill Richardson (thus producing upward movement for both in Iowa and New Hampshire), but appears to be getting underway for most of the other candidates right about now. So it will be interesting to watch the round of early state surveys in September and October to whether greater exposure to all of the candidates changes perceptions and preferences.
Every Democratic candidate, except Kucinich and Gravel is now on the air in the early states, so Act Two is in full swing. As such, the next set of polls will indeed be very telling of where the campaign will be heading through at least the middle of November. The trends we see in September will likely continue through at least October. Act Three begins when the negative ads start, which typically is about five or six weeks before Iowa. Remember that in 2003, Dean was able to take the lead during "Act Two," but fell apart when the arrows started flying his way in Act Three (the "murder suicide" with Gephardt, among other things).
By our count, Giuliani spent about 58 hours at Yankees games or flying to them in the 40 days between Sept. 25 and Nov. 4, roughly twice as long as he spent at ground zero in the 60 days between Sept. 17 and Dec. 16. By his own standard, Giuliani was one of the Yankees more than he was one of the rescue workers.
I remember watching a lot of baseball immediately after September 11th, too. It was a good way to avoid depression. However, I was just a lowly graduate student and English teacher who was shocked at the direction the nation was turning following those terrible attacks and whose girlfriend was out of the country. I was not Mayor of New York City. And I don't even like the Yankees, anyway.
Obama Slows Debate Schedule, Then Rocks A Debate At MyDD, Todd Beeton notes that almost immediately after Barack Obama said he wouldn't debate anymore, he is now being credited with an excellent debate performance by most pundits. He also seems to be receiving positive reviews from pundits for deciding to not accept anymore debate appearances than he has already made. Personally, I'm not sure what to make of Obama's move, since it is always difficult to cast canceling possible campaign appearances in a positive light. Then again, I think most major Democratic constituencies already have held candidate forums, so he isn't really dissing anyone while simultaneously avoiding potential future political difficulties by individually telling certain groups "no." Also, this means that any potentially revised Fox News debate really is dead. There is no way Edwards or Clinton will show up at a Fox News debate if Obama won't, given the potential netroots backlash that would come if they do.
Why I'm Not Jumping In With Dodd Or Kucinich
Since my declaration yesterday that I would not be joining up with either Dodd or Kucinich's campaigns as a way of trying to change the focus of the primary toward of substantive policy discussions, some people have asked me why. To be as simple as I can, Dodd has already been on the air in New Hampshire, and simply has not seen the same upward movement from his advertising that Richardson did. In other words, I don't think Dodd has any traction, and I don't think I would change that. Second, as far as Kucinich goes, basically I am in agreement with what Markos wrote back in February, except for the part about Kucinich refusing to sell the local power company.
Rove Had Nothing To Do With Kerry Being the Nominee
There has been a lot of buzz about a recent LA Times article that claims Karl Rove and Matthew Dowd masterminded John Kerry's rise to the Democratic nomination in 2004. Apparently, the theory is that Rove and Dowd used reverse psychology on the Democratic base, by attacking the candidate they feared less, Kerry, in order to drive the Democratic base to Kerry instead of Edwards. Here is my simply response to this: What-fucking-ever. The idea that this played any role in Kerry becoming the Democratic nominee is absurd. As Pollster.com shows, that ship had already sailed by "late January" when supposedly rove and Dowd began messing with our feeble minds:
So, when exactly did the great wave of effectively anti-Kerry attacks from the Bush campaign start? Was it during the week after the Iowa caucuses when Dean was facing character assassination over the "scream," and when Kerry was riding a huge wave of post-Iowa momentum after that win? If it wasn't during that one week, then it didn't matter, as that was when all of the meaningful movement in national polls took place (Kerry went up 30, and Dean went down 15). In fact, if it was during that week, it didn't matter either, because the only news stories that week were about Kerry's victory and Dean's scream. The idea that Karl Rove had any impact on this is nonsense, as is the idea that they are having any impact on the 2008 Democratic nomination campaign.
