| 10PM CBC projects Conservative government, just remains whether it will be majority or minority.
Green Party leader May did not win her seat.
10:10PM These results are based on some pretty low number early counts in many ridings, but it's not looking good for any kind of progressive government in Canada.
10:25PM Liberals down significantly in Ontario, but made gains in Quebec. Currently leading in a rural Quebec riding, which is surprising.
10:35PM NDP flirting with their best ever performance of 43 seats under Ed Broadbent. Bloc Quebecois have not performed to expectations. Pierre Trudeau's son Justin and astronaut Marc Garneau are leading for the Liberals in their Montreal ridings, which is a silver lining for the Liberals.
10:45PM CBC projects it will not be a majority government. Whew. Also, Harper's Senate Appointed Cabinet member from Quebec is going down in well deserved flames.
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Stephen Harper is almost certain to keep his job as Prime Minister today. He has an outside shot at a majority if the vote splitting on the left goes particularly badly. If it goes particularly well, there is a small chance of a Liberal or Liberal/NDP minority government. Assuming Harper wins a plurality of the seats, there is a fairly remote chance of a Liberal/NDP/Bloc coalition. All in all, a pretty chaotic situation. And yet, I get the sense that many Canadians are unsatisfied with their choices, particularly Harper and Dion, and with the market meltdown it isn't clear who is the "winner" with the uncertainty. Harper might have been, but did not handle it well (he remarked that there were good investment opportunities on the worst crash day).
Canadian markets were closed yesterday for our Thanksgiving (really, having in October is much nicer, it's warmer and the leaves are really colourful). However, today, yesterday's big recovery came north. That may have some impact on people's last minute voting preferences. What exactly I can't really guess.
Finally, the big wildcard to me is the Green Party vote. Latest polling has the Greens at between 7 and 11% of the national vote, which is significantly higher than their 4.5% of the vote in 2006. Similarly, the NDP are hovering at 20%. Ordinarily in Canadian elections, the NDP and Greens lose some support on election day if there is a threat of a Conservative victory, particularly a majority. The last couple weeks of polling have the Conservatives below the usual threshold for a majority (40%) but that threshold was arrived at under a pile of elections that did not include the Green party garnering possibly double digits. Most voters probably do not think the Conservatives will win a majority which will blunt their desire to vote strategically for the Liberals. Ironically, this will increase the odds of a Conservative majority as there are enough seats where a "perfect" split of the left's vote will give the Conservatives the seat. This will no doubt happen once or twice, but for a majority, the Conservatives will have to draw an inside straight by doing so over about 20-30 ridings. Possible but not likely.
Regional Rundown
Canada is usually thought of in five regions: The Atlantic, Quebec, Ontario, the Praries and BC. The groupings are debatable and of course this ignores the North but it is a convention in wide use so I'll keep it here.
In the four Atlantic provinces, the Conservatives will likely lose seats. The Liberals poll highest and may even gain a couple. The NDP have a couple and may pick up also. Green leader Elizabeth May has a longshot chance in her Conservative lean district held by the Conservative deputy party leader and Minister of National Defence, Peter MacKay. The Liberals are not running a candidate there, and have endorsed May in that riding, but the NDP are running a candidate. MacKay will likely win, but May squeaking out a win would be a nice surprise.
The Conservatives really hurt themselves in Quebec, and are now in third place behind the Bloc and Liberals in the province. Historically, the Conservatives have only ever been able to forge a majority with substantial support in Quebec. As it stands, the Conservatives may actually lose seats in Quebec (and the Atlantic too) which will make a majority even more out of reach for them. The NDP will likely hold their 1 seat but I don't see them winning any others and neither do any of the prediction sites. Dion's french language debate performance gave the Liberals a real boost in Quebec and probably cut the flow of progressive federalist Quebecois to the NDP.
Moving west, the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP are all competitive in Ontario, which has 106 seats and will again be decisive as to the outcome. In the praries (Manitoba and Saskatchewan) the Cons are dominant with the NDP and Liberals competitive only in a handful of seats, Alberta will elect 28 out of 28 Conservatives leaving BC as the final battle ground, with a selection of three-way competitive ridings and even higher Green support than the national average. The North has only 3 seats which will likely go 2 Liberal and 1 NDP.
Also, I wrote a Canadian Primer earlier for US readers that may be some help in understanding the situation up here. The comments are recommended since some readers take issue with my take and I don't claim to be the end-all of Canadian commentary and opinion. |
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