Lots Of New State Polls

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 12:26

New from CNN, Insider Advantage and Survey USA this morning (and late last night):

CO: Obama 51%--47% McCain
FL: Obama 51%--46% McCain
FL: Obama 48%--44% McCain
GA: McCain 53%--45% Obama
MO: McCain 49%--48% Obama
NC: Obama 49%--47% McCain
NM: Obama 52%--45% McCain
NV: Obama 49%--46% McCain
VA: Obama 53%--43% McCain
WA: Obama 56%--40% McCain
WV: McCain 49%--47% Obama

Looking pretty good. I will have a full presidential forecast up later today, but these numbers make the conclusion pretty clear ahead of time. Obama leads 338-158 in the polling analysis consensus. He wins the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia. Four states--Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina and West Virginia--are toss-ups, although really Indiana and its 11 electoral votes probably lean toward McCain. Still, 338-169, with Missouri, North Carolina and West Virginia undecided, is pretty darn good.

Chris Bowers :: Lots Of New State Polls

Tags: swing states, Presidential Polls, President 2008, (All Tags)

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Lots Of New State Polls | 4 comments

Can we talk about that WV poll!? (4.00 / 1)

Only 2 behind! And that's with next to no campaigning in the state since the primary. Biden just said that "we can win West by-god Virginia," and if he's laying the groundwork for a big last minute push from the campaign (and maybe a visit from you-know-who), this could go into the tossup category mighty quick.

by: nautilus1700 @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 16:46:06 PM UTC

by: you @ soon

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Indeed!! (0.00 / 0)

More on Biden comments.

They call me Clem, Clem Guttata. Come visit wild, wonderful West Virginia Blue

by: WVaBlue @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 17:37:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Have seen CO internals (0.00 / 0)

Not from a presidential campaign, but statewide nonetheless. Race is not over. That four point margin you see above is about right (not the 10 points of some other recent poll) and closing fast. Udall now running ahead of Obama.

Watch out.

by: ColoDem @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 17:01:01 PM UTC

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there is no reason to trust internals over public polling, especially (0.00 / 0)

if they aren't obama's internals (where the campaign might have a better idea of how they are doing with voter reg and contacts).

i actually agree that colorado (like ohio) seems resistant to locking up for obama, but i don't agree that internals 'prove' it.

possibly, we are simply seeing the effect of mccain campaigning hard in the state, and spending a lot of money there. same with ohio.

seems to me that VA is the true tipping point state at this point. it is very hard to see how mccain wins the election if he loses virginia (probably flipping PA or NM is his best bet). good luck with that....

by: seabrook @ Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 18:02:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]