Despite Reichert campaign manager Mike Shields's attempt to unlock right-wing money for Reichert through a savvy PR campaign (including this Amy Sullivan article in Time titled Will the Netroots Sink a Microsoft Dem?), the wave has caught up in the Northwest. Darcy's up 47-40 over Reichert in the latest Lake Research polling, with Reichert's reelect number at just 36%.
The full polling memo is on the flip, but the key here is that Reichert's floor of 52 has been cracked, and he's now in the low 40s. That means that his main asset, his image of a hard charging sheriff is no longer working in the district. Lake is Darcy's pollster, but there are reasons to think this confirmation of yesterday's DCCC poll is on target. Her message is getting out there, as even sportsbloggers are complaining about how many commerials they are seeing.
The latest Lake Research Partners survey of likely voters in Washington's 8th District shows Democrat Darcy Burner leading Republican Dave Reichert for the first time in the history of our polling.
• Burner now leads Reichert 47% to 40%. This is the first time she has ever led, signaling that the voters of WA-08 are ready for the kind of change on behalf of middle class families that Burner promises to bring.
• Reichert's job performance rating has plummeted to 34% good or excellent versus a majority (55%) just fair or poor. Voters are waking up to the reality that Reichert has been exceptionally ineffective on behalf of the district, and are tired of his being a rubberstamp for George Bush's policies.
• Reichert's re-elect stands at just 36%. The remaining two thirds of the electorate would consider voting for someone else, vote to replace Reichert, or aren't sure.
• Burner's positive message is starting to penetrate, while Reichert's lack of leadership is exposed. Voters who have recently heard, seen, or read something about Burner feel more favorably toward her by a better than 2-to-1 margin (39% more favorable to 18% less favorable). By way of contrast, voters who have recently heard, seen, or read something about Reichert are twice as likely to feel less favorably than more favorably about him as a result (16% more favorable to 30% less favorable).
With enough resources to continue to communicate Burner's strong messages and inform voters about Reichert's ineffectiveness, Burner is on a path to emerge victorious in 20 days.
