| I'm still putting Darcy Burner at the top even though she's been one of the early swing races identified by the DCCC and everyone else (and it is great news that, as Matt points out, there is another poll showing her in the lead). She is both a symbol of all that is good about the progressive political movement, and one of the smartest substantive people running for office- any office- this year. She would be one of the best young progressive leaders in government.
The only other House races I would put in my highest priority category are a pair of VA candidates, Judy Feder and Tom Perriello. Both are great candidates, real stars who would be leaders in Congress, in tough districts made easier by the Democratic tide. And VA is a really important swing state in Presidential politics, so helping them is a twofer.
Next category: getting to 60. It is extremely likely at this point that we win the seats we've been ahead in all year long- Warner in VA, Shaheen in NH, the Udalls in CO and NM. Those campaigns should take nothing for granted, but I don't think the broader progressive community needs to worry about them too much beyond finishing out whatever grassroots programs that have already been put into place (which, since they all happen to be in swing Presidential states, should of course absolutely be finished out). I would also add the NC race to this list, with all the new black voters who will be coming out, I think it's very likely Kay Hagan will beat Dole.
Begich in Alaska is a lock to win if Stevens is convicted, but if he's acquitted, I fear a vindication/this was all politics factor that will be tough to overcome, so I rate this one as out of our hands.
The ones where I think progressive donors, groups, and online activists can really make a huge difference:
- MN. Franken has been running just a little behind this whole race, but now has caught up. It would send shockwaves into both parties to have someone like Franken in the Senate, someone who has been as openly aggressive to O'Reilly, Limbaugh, and Coulter and others is so different than the culture of caution practiced by many in the Democratic party.
- OR. Merkley has been helped a lot by the Democratic tide, and his strongly progressive campaign has Gordon Smith running scared. Great shot at a pickup.
- ME. Susan Collins has a reputation as a moderate, but is famous for siding with right-wing Republicans when they need her (see my post on riding the train with Rick Santorum). Because of her reputation, though, it's been an uphill race for Tom Allen. With the tide coming in, she's now in trouble.
- KY. As I've said in the past, I have deeply mixed feelings on this one, as Lunsford clearly isn't a progressive. But beating McConnell would be the sweetest thing imaginable, and this race is clearly in play. It should be a high priority.
I strongly recommend helping in these four races, but it's going to take some longshots coming in to give us a chance at 60 (if we won every single one of the above, we'd get there, but that's pretty unlikely, so I think we'll need at least one of these). Here's where those last couple of seats might come from:
- GA. With the surprising rise of populist Jim Martin, who is remarkably close in the polling, and with lots of black voter registration and a likely huge black turnout, this out-of-the-blue race is the most likely of the longshots to be a victory. The big problem, naturally, is the huge Chambliss money edge. This is definitely a race where big donors and netroots givers alike could make a huge difference.
- MS. Another race long thought to be a longshot, and another state where a huge black turnout could easily put Musgrove over the top. The polling has stayed consistently close, and Musgrove is also very competitive on money raised.
- OK. Rice is an outstanding candidate who just keeps lurking around, lurking around, maybe a dozen points back. He doesn't have the benefit of a large African-American population, but an Obama tidal wave sweeping the country might still sweep him in.
- NE. Another one which polls show is on the outer margin of possibility- two different late September polls had him fourteen points down, and we don't know whether the economic turmoil of the last two weeks could have moved numbers more his way. Like Rice, Kleeb is a very strong candidate, and with both Obama and the DCCC targeting the Omaha district for a lot of grassroots activity, Kleeb still has a shot.
Of those four, my favorite is GA- I think it's our best shot, and Martin seems like a pretty strong progressive.
So that's my top of the heap list. For each race, I've linked to a fundraising page so you can throw in a few dollars. There are a ton of exciting House races out there, as well as some big gubernatorial and closely divided state legislative chambers, so there are plenty of great races for everyone to be excited about. For me, though, given that we are pretty much a dead lock to pick up double digits in the House, getting to 60 Senate seats is the biggest deal remaining in this election outside of ensuring an Obama win. |
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