The "Market Fear" Anti-McCain Bounce is Over

by: tremayne

Sat Oct 18, 2008 at 14:19


Some narrowing of Barack Obama's lead in the tracking poll average today will no doubt spur numerous theories to explain it. "We expected it to narrow towards election day" or "It's a McCain debate bounce" or "Joe the plumber something" or "the smears are working." Take a look at the graph of the five tracking poll average (does not include the non-daily Battleground or IBD/TIPP which is less than a week old):

 

Here's my take. The overriding picture is still stability. Obama has been between 49.2 and 50.5 for 12 days now and John McCain between 42.1 and 43.3. In fact, Obama's typical mark in this average has been 49.8 and he's been within 3 tenths of that point for all but a couple of days. Today we are right back to where we started with this 5-tracker on Oct. 7: a lead of about 6.

Remember that the daily reports actually reflect the preceding three days' polling. So the data shown here for Oct. 7 was mostly collected before the market meltdown that started Oct. 6. I believe the stock market collapse of the Oct. 6-10 week created a bounce which has now faded away. It wasn't so much an Obama bounce (although a little, see his numbers on Oct. 11 and 12) as it was a McCain anti-bounce. His numbers fell sharply on the Oct. 9 report (fully reflecting three days of market fear) and stayed down for four more days until starting on Oct. 14 to gradually recover.

There were other events, debates and such, but my take is that the market collapse of Oct. 6-10 hurt McCain and Republicans in general. The market, while still volatile, was better this past week and McCain's numbers have crept back up to where they were 12 days prior.

So I don't expect much more narrowing although Chris Bowers' forecast of a stable 4-5 point Obama lead is reasonable.

Your take?

Update: It appears the TIPP tracking poll, which debuted Oct. 13, will be polling and publishing on weekends. If so, I will be adding to this average. Here's a preview: when you look at Oct. 13 thru Oct. 18 with TIPP in the average, there has been almost no movement, a steady Obama lead of about 6.5 points.

tremayne :: The "Market Fear" Anti-McCain Bounce is Over

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The "Market Fear" Anti-McCain Bounce is Over | 15 comments
Gallup's polling today... (0.00 / 0)
....stated that economic optimism scored higher this week than previous weeks... I would gather there is a direct correlation.

I think people are "getting used to" the economic downturn, and that isn't helping us.... it lets stupid gimmicks and distractions like lipstick and joe the plumber get in the way.

When the topic isn't about real issues, Republicans always have the upper hand.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

When you are counting (0.00 / 0)
on terrible events to push a candidate past the finish line that doesn't say great things about the candidate. Perhaps voters have taken notice that almost all of Obama's plans are 10 year plans and he doesn't offer much in immediate plans.

His job creation plan is centered around alternative fuel technology which has yet to be invented so no one can count on that. His plan to renegotiate failing mortgages is nonexistent. And he has yet to sign on to an immediate stimulus plan as far as I know.

Last night I heard someone on TV ask if Obama were in the WH would the bold moves being made to prop up the financial sector and the economy ever have happened as fast as they did? Who knows but with caution being one of his trade marks you have to think that people may be wondering about that.

And don't laugh at Joe The Plumber. He is a metaphor for not raising taxes. Traditionally even Democrats are not real keen on raising taxes on anyone, especially in a bad economy. Add to that most people don't look at $250,000 as being rich and in fact many have aspirations of reaching that figure someday with their own business. Obama wants to tax those people when they get there so they may not find that very inviting.

One thing the GOP has always been incredibly good at is a short concise message with impact. So when McCain said during the debate and continues to say that 'during an economic downturn is not the time to raise taxes on anyone', that may just be getting into the psyche of the voters.  

[ Parent ]
oh noes, we're only winning by seven!!!1!!1 (0.00 / 0)
.
[ Parent ]
Rubbish (0.00 / 0)
The electorate have long believed Obama would raise taxes. This is nothing new. People thought Clinton would raise taxes in 1992 - he still won. The situation is arguably worse now. And the very reason people thought Obama handled the crisis better than McCain was because he behaved exactly in exactly the manner you are being negative about while McCain was erratic. This is all just natural tightening. The days of double digit presidential victories are well in the past.  
[ Parent ]
Are you sure about this? (4.00 / 1)
Add to that most people don't look at $250,000 as being rich and in fact many have aspirations of reaching that figure someday with their own business.

$250,000 is much more than the average American makes. It's much more than the average American college graduate makes. I don't know the income or gross revenue of the average small business owner. But, I imagine some of them would be happy with 1/4 of that salary. I know I would.  

[ Parent ]
Gas Price Theory (4.00 / 1)
With so manyh variable any one might influence small trends, but to the extent that McCain is seen as the heir to the incumbent the decline in gas prices may help him a little.  For some Low Information voters it is possible that the price of gas has become a kind of barometer for overall views of the economy and government.  This may not make much sense, but gas prices have fallen sharply.
I think you nailed it! (0.00 / 0)
The Republicans have managed to have it both ways on gas prices, they managed to make it a winning issue for them when they were high, and, of course, they benefit when gas prices are lower...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
Seniors- Moved to Obama (4.00 / 1)
The Wall St. crash has had a lasting impact. The polling says seniors have moved from being for McCain by a large margin to being for Obama, by various margins. They see clearly now what the impact would be of giving soc. sec. funds for "private accounts." They also have seen their 401ks and other retirement funds impacted permanently. This accounts in large part for the movement to Obama in Florida.
TIPP (0.00 / 0)
Well! (0.00 / 0)
I was waiting to see if TIPP was going to poll and publish on weekends (unlike Battleground). Since it appears they are I am going to have to add them and create the new and improved 6-tracker average.
[ Parent ]
I'm going to worry (0.00 / 0)
I'm going to worry right up until McCain concedes the election. We've got to get enough votes, overcome racism, overcome voter suppression, and overcome a radical base that loves Palin.

Based on the numbers at fivethirtyeight.com, Obama has lost 14 electoral votes in four days. The lead at the moment is comfortable, but there are 17 more days.

Yeah, and McCain has skyrocketed to a 6.4% chance of winning on 538 (0.00 / 0)
If he keeps "surging," maybe he can even get to a 10% chance!

I understand not wanting to get overconfident, but I still don't see much reason to get worried (not the same as "there's nothing to worry about"--you mention voter suppression, which is obviously something to worry about and fight against no matter what the polls say).

[ Parent ]
Agreed (0.00 / 0)
Chris had it right the other day - cautious optimism while keeping a watchful eye.
[ Parent ]
The Bounce maybe over (0.00 / 0)
but the fundamentals remain the same. Right track numbers were terrible before the "crash".
I see the polls just about where I expected them. I wont really worry until I see McCain above 45% on a consistent basis.
They will creep above 45 (0.00 / 0)
by election day.  It is almost impossible for them not to.
[ Parent ]
The "Market Fear" Anti-McCain Bounce is Over | 15 comments





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