And then there were six. The newest tracker, by IBD/TIPP, published and polled this weekend and therefore it meets the criteria of the other five. It's based on a three day rolling average like the others. It began on Oct. 13 so I've gone back and added to the average to create the graph below. The big takeaway? Extreme stability in the Obama-McCain race over the last 7 days. As I wrote yesterday, Obama's peak in the old five-poll tracking average was Oct. 11 & 12 when he went above eight points which I believe was market related and represented a small decline in McCain's support.
The margin is very stable. Since Oct. 13 it's been 6.6, 6.7, 6.3, 6.3, 6.9, 6.4 and 6.3.
If you look at likely voters instead of registered voters you will find a narrower margin. That doesn't mean the race is narrowing it just means likely voter models usually predict that younger (Democratic leaning) voters will turn out at lower rates than older (Republican leaning) voters. That may or may not be the case this year. African American turnout will be very high and will favor Obama, that much is clear.
The folks over at Redstate are trying their best to ignore the Colin Powell news and the $150 million news and focus on a supposed narrowing of the race. According to this daily tracking poll average that is a thin hope.
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