Cutting-edge House Races

by: Mike Lux

Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:45


Cross-posted on Huffington Post

Between our steady and perhaps even expanding generic congressional national polling lead, the massive Obama GOTV operation (57 swing congressional races are in Obama targeted states), and the huge DCCC money edge, we have a legitimate shot at really blowing out our pickup margin.

Chris Bowers predicted a 22-28 seat pickup, the DCCC has an incredible 63 candidates on its Red to Blue program, and now DCORP's latest poll of the 50 most competitive Republican-held districts shows us steadily picking up our polling numbers each of the last two weeks. According to DCORP, we are now eight points up in the 20 top-tier targets, meaning we could easily pick up 15 of them. Even more importantly, we are only slightly down in the next two tiers down. Even without the Obama turnout taken into account, even if the upward polling trend doesn't continue, we are currently poised to pick up close to half these races. On top of the 50 GOP-held districts being polled by DCORP, there's another 13 races the DCCC is targeting and while when you get that for down the chart, it gets tougher and tougher to pick up wins, you still might add two or three in this bottom 13.

What all this means is that if the election were held today, adding no seats for the Obama turnout operation, the expected youth/African-American tide of new voters, or any other factor, we would be likely to pick up at least mid-20s in House seats. Absent a last-minute fade in the polls, I think 25 should be our minimum goal, and that we should be pushing to stretch that number well past 30. I think the best way to make that happen is to give money to candidates (or state parties or outside groups working in these districts) who have been on the rise in recent weeks who are in those tougher districts to win. The candidates in open seats that are 50-50 or better D/R, that have been targeted by the DCCC for 18 months and have already raised way into the seven digits, are probably going to make it in this atmosphere. The exceptions in terms of needing help are people like Darcy Burner, who even though she's been targeted from the beginning by the DCCC, is still heavily dependent on the progressive community, and especially hated and feared by the GOP establishment. Another exception to this rule would be Betsy Markey in Colorado, who is despised by the right-wingers for taking on their hero, Marilyn Musgrave, and who is in a top-tier target state for Presidential and Senate reasons. So here are my up and coming "get us over a 30-seat pickup list":

Mike Lux :: Cutting-edge House Races
1. Darcy Burner (WA-08): per the above

2. Betsy Markey (CO-04): per the above

3. Judy Feder (VA-10): up and coming race, top-tier target for Obama in the most important swing area of the state for him. Judy would be a major leader for health care reform in Congress.

4. Nick Liebham (CA-50): Running against the worst person in Congress (with Tancredo retiring) on immigration issues, Brian Bilbray, just an awful person. Nobody's given Nick a chance, but he's suddenly in a statistical dead heat, and Bilbray would be hugely important to knock off.

5. Tom Perriello (VA-5): A strong progressive, Perriello is also running against one of the most awful, bigoted right wingers in Congress, Virgil Goode. As noted above, in a top targeted state for Obama.

6. Elwyn Tinklenberg (MN-6): Everyone knows the story here. Beating Bachmann after her anti-American remarks would be sweet.

7. Sam Bennett (PA-15): Sam's been on a steady uphill climb all cycle long, and with the GOTV operation for Obama in PA, she's got a real shot.

8. Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-3): Another up-and-comer in this classic swing state, and the GOTV operation could be the thing that wins it for her.

9./10. Walt Minnick (ID-1)/Gary Trauner (WY-AL): Horrible Republicans, two more up and comers with a decent shot in extremely Republican states but in a region trending toward the Democrats.

11. Jim Esch (NE-2): Gotta give a shout-out to my homeboy Jim Esch. Nobody thought he had a chance against Lee Terry in 2006, and he came close to knocking him off, plus the Obama organization is working this district like crazy.

12./13. Joe Garcia/Raul Martinez: Florida's the biggest target state for Obama in the country, and these two surprising challengers have a chance to knock off old guard right-wing Cuban Republicans. Winning a double victory here would be huge symbolically, and would and help Obama a lot.

14. Dina Titus (NV-3): While there is one poll showing Titus ahead, she has spent most of her campaign trailing Jon Porter, and trails badly in the money race. But Obama's got a lead in Nevada now after being down not that long ago, and the GOTV operation may carry a rising Titus to victory. This race is also important in terms of helping shore up Harry Reid's seat in two years.

If we end up winning a majority of these races, it almost certainly pushes us past the 30+ seat pickup margin. And 10 of these are also in states that Obama is targeting, making support of them a nice twofer.

Of the 14 (Burner, Markey, Liebham, Perriello, Tinklenberg, Minnick, Trauner, Garcia, Martinez) also have the big added bonus of being big symbolic wins that the media will pay attention to: Burner because of her rising up through grassroots/netroots activism; Markey, Liebham, Perriello, Tinklenberg because they beat nationally known right-wing leaders; Minnick and Trauner because they hail from some deep red states; Garcia and Martinez because of their new generation Hispanic leadership beating the old guard Cuban leadership.

If you want to help push us past a 30-seat pickup, these are the races to give to.

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Cutting-edge House Races | 16 comments
why are you asking people to give to Tinklenberg? (4.00 / 1)
He's raised almost a million from the netroots, and the DCCC said they'll throw in another million.

Is another few thousand from Open Left readers going to make a difference in this race?

I don't get it.

Put some money behind candidates who are not getting the big bucks from the netroots (Orange to Blue) or the DCCC.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

Fair point. (0.00 / 0)
But like with Marilyn Musgrave, the right will rally to her defense bigtime, and it would be a very big deal to have a series of the most flaming wingnuts go down in this election.
[ Parent ]
no Debbie Cook? (4.00 / 1)
That race should be a priority.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
Almost (0.00 / 0)
I almost put her on the list, but (a) it's a really, really tough district; (b) she has absolutely no money; and (c) CA's not targeted in any other way, meaning there's no side benefits.
[ Parent ]
gripe at no one in particular (4.00 / 1)
I get frustrated when people tell me IA-05 (Steve King) is a lost cause because it's so Republican, yet it's only R+8 and Obama is crushing McCain in Iowa.

NE-02 is R+9, and Obama will lose the state.  ID-01 and WY-AL are both R+19, and again Obama will have no coat-tails.

I just don't get why people are so quick to write off certain longshots while pushing hard for other longshots.

Nothing against our good candidates in NE-02, WY-AL or ID-01.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

Here's the lowdown (0.00 / 0)
How it works: The staffers and Congresscritters at the DCCC talk to each other and to a few old friend, sources in some of the state party organizations. They give interviews about their outlooks, often largely "on background," to the prognosticators and sometimes to the traditional press. The prognosticators ask the counterparts over at the NRCC for their opinion on the same races mentioned in these interviews. Maybe someone looks at fund-raising reports, or recalls something from a previous race in the district or the area.

Then the prognosticators draw up their lists, and over the months of primaries and campaigns, the lists get updated from time to time. Of course, Larry Sabato reads Rothenberg who reads Cook who ... reads the Washington Post and the New York Times ... just like the folks at the DCCC read them and the reports of the prognosticators. There hasn't been so much incestuous goings-on since the Pharoahs married their sisters. It all becomes a closed recycling system of election forecasts.

The blogs have expanded things a bit, but only a bit. The prognosticating blogs read Rothenberg and Cook and Sabato (I'm sure I'm leaving out some leading list makers, sorry) more closely than they read the diaries on their own blogs. So their postings tend to report and repeat the conclusions of the Beltway experts and their coterie of listmaking prognosticating reporters.

In the end, the DCCC starts spending big money -- on the same list of candidates they mentioned to the prognosticators back in the spring. Funny how the big money makes these candidates viable and talked about, attracting media attention and more contributions, while the unmentioned others wither on the vine.

Now you come along, writing dispatching from out in the sticks. You've talked to the candidate and seen him in action on the hustings. You've talked to the volunteers. You've observed the rallies. You've heard the ads on the radio, seen the articles in the local papers. You've talked to actual voters. You may think you have a feel for what is happening in your backyard.

What the hell do you think you know about Rob Hulber and IA-05 that the recycling prognosticating experts inside the Beltway don't already know and have known all year?

[ Parent ]
And can't you see they're busy? (0.00 / 0)
In the end, after your candidate loses by a few thousand votes, then they will tell you to your face, "We told you all along it wasn't a winnable race."
[ Parent ]
Your point is good, but I think I know why. (4.00 / 1)
Last cycle offered strong proof that Democrats could compete in WY-AL, ID-01, and NE-02.  In all three districts Democrats who were not taken very seriously anywhere outside the netroots made it to within ten points, and in Trauner's case to within 1 point.  So the potential competitiveness of these districts was literally proven two years ago, and everyone believes in them now.

Other districts, even very similar districts, that weren't explicitly demonstrated last cycle have been overlooked.  I've donated to Becky Greenwald because I think Paul Loebsack proved that Iowa districts will flip.  A lot of people have declined to believe in Nick Leibham based on how Busby did the last two times.  I believe in CA-03, because of what happened last cycle in CA-11.  On the other hand, I believed in MO-06 because of what happened in AZ-05, and it looks like I was wrong there.

It's a lot riskier to assume that district Y will act as similar district X did, than to just maintain your focus on similar district X.  Most people are doing the latter, and for a fairly valid reason.

[ Parent ]
Comfortable with the familiar (0.00 / 0)
You are no doubt correct that those that got noticed in the past cycle have a huge advantage in this cycle. And we owe a lot of gratitude to some candidates who showed the way and bowed out the next go-around.

Down our way, in TX-10, Ted Ankrum ran against Michael McCaul, the incumbent whose only noteworthy accomplishment in life was to marry up, into the family of the Clear Channel radio behemoth. Ankrum ran in '06 with no money, just smarts, volunteers, and a Democratic message. He held McCaul to 55% while W. was racking up 62%. This year Larry Joe Doherty, a Houston lawyer who had a judge-on-TV show on Faux, is running with much more money, and the district is considered competitive largely because Ankrum made the case.

Indeed, Ankrum's showing adds credibility to Michael Skelly's challenge to John Culberson, Tom DeLay's closest crony, in the neighboring TX-07.

Even further back, Richard Morrison ran against Tom DeLay and lost, but proved that there were indeed some Democrats in TX-22 after all. When DeLay's legal matters caught up with him, Nick Lampson was able to win using in part the organization that Morrison had begun to build.

All this speaks again to the profound wisdom of the 50-state strategy, with its corollary to contest every race. I don't see us "contesting every race" if we concentrate all our firepower on a Top 15 list drawn from the DCCC's Red to Blue list and Swing State Project's rankings of Toss-up and Lean Repub races. That tight focus on the short term fails to prepare us well for the important election coming up in 2010.

[ Parent ]
No buzz. (0.00 / 0)
I just haven't heard anyone tell me, including some old friends in IA, that they think King is beatable.  
[ Parent ]
Your list fails to widen the battlefield (0.00 / 0)
The Cash on Hand of the candidates on this list must total in the millions. Most of the candidates here will win without another dollar from anyone who reads the blogs.

Tinklenberg alone now has over a million bucks -- what can he possibly do with more money and 10 days to spend it? And the DCCC has pledged another million! You want me to put my lousy $50 bucks or so into this multimillion dollar race?

We all like Darcy Burner, a better Democrat. But she's a MicroSoft exec with a circle of friends and acquaintances whose tech stock holdings, even post-meltdown, leave them well able to fund her campaign. She's got a popular, celebrity ex-sheriff opponent, and a tough race. But I've never seen anything that says lack of money is what's making this one tough. Anyway, DailyKos is smitten with her, so she gets plenty of love from the Netroots already.

Judy Feder is in the NoVa suburbs, surely one of the highest income districts in the country. I'm gonna let her raise money in her neighborhood. VA is trending blue, from the state capitol to the Senate seats to the other House races to the Electoral Votes. If she can't make it without me this year, she just can't make it. It's out in FlyoverLand where my little money now can make the most difference.

Perriello, your other VA Dem, has a harder district and a notoriously crazy opponent, a party switcher -- from Strom Thurmond's old Dixiecrat Party at that. But at this point in the game it's not clear to me that even Perriello needs more money to win.

Well, at least Feder's and Perriello's races, like Sam Bennett in PA-15 and Nick Liebham in CA-50 are ranked "Likely Republican" in the Swing State Project ratings, itself a very cautious, may I say timid, ranking, of where these contests will end up in this wave year, "change" election. So they are fighting uphill. All your other suggestions are in the comfort zone of Toss-up or barely Lean Republican status. "Toss-up" must mean that about half the races would go our way at this point So what are doing in these popular contests?

Every one of these picks is already among the DCCC's Red to Blue list, and these campaigns are already receiving various kinds of assistance from inside the Beltway.

In '06, another wave year election, some saw it coming, but "headquarters" did not. Rahm Emanuel's D-trip poured millions into a few targeted races in Illinois and Kentucky that we ended up losing by large margins. Meanwhile a handful of candidates won elsewhere without much help -- like Carol Shea-Porter in NH, Nancy Boyda in Kansas.

And sadly, Larry Kissell in NC and Vic Wutsin in Ohio and maybe others came within hundreds or thousands of votes of winning despite being ignored by the heavyweight prognosticators -- and by the party committees whose job it was to find potential winners.

This list goes down that same sorry path, concentrating on already targeted and well-known races and ignoring the prospects where even a few bucks from sites like this could tilt the end result. Didn't you read desmoinesdem's post on expanding the field and picking up seats that weren't already on the radar some months ago? This seems like an attempt to rebut that post and undermine that effort. Pathetic, and very disappointing.


Besides that, Mrs Lincoln, did you like the play? (0.00 / 0)
Sorry to have made you so irate, we just disagree re these races.
Some of these races, like with Darcy's and Markey's, have been targeted for a while, but still face an uphill battle because of the $ on the other side. And I'm a big believer in the symbolism of certain races, races that get people talking for years to come about their importance.
Several I just don't agree re your assessment- these are all hard, uphill races to win. And, frankly, while I want to expand the pool of winners, with 2 weeks out, I'm not interested in investing in the real long shot races- I want the ones that are tough but very doable.  
[ Parent ]
How I really feel ... (0.00 / 0)
I'm afraid that far too many squandered opportunities will be painfully clear on Nov. 5, when we start to compile the list of so-damn-close races we lost but could have won easily and cheaply and with only a little last minute push.

Only, no one at all will step forward to take any responsibility for being overly timid and failing to reach for the sweep. Nobody will be wrong. Right?

Who with any important position ever apologized to readers or donors for leaving Larry Kissell 300 votes short in NC, or stranding Vic Wutsin 3,000 votes short in OH? If you got that memo from Rahm Emanuel, or from any candidate-picking, list-making blogger or prognosticator, well, I missed it.

If  Steve King in IA-05 survives by a few hundred or a few thousand votes, will you remember to tell desmoinesdem that you coulda, shoulda, woulda but you blew it? Maybe I'll remind you, O.K.?

[ Parent ]
Good list (0.00 / 0)
but frankly, I'd like to see Harry Reid primaried in 2010, so I certainly don't see saving his seat as a reason to help out Dina Titus. I have no use for him -- if he had any stones or leadership ability, he would've played legislative hardball with the Republicans due to their abuse of the filibuster-lite, and the FISA Amendments Act would never have passed.
one more knife-edge race (0.00 / 0)
Yesterday's UConn poll in CT-04:

Shays (R) 44
Himes (D) 44

This is the GOP's last House seat in New England.  If we win it, the story next morning will be of the Republicans unable to compete in an entire region of the country.  The other story will be of a party, its "moderate" faction now evaporated, reduced to a rump caucus of mostly Southern right-wing ideologues.

I like those stories.  By the way, Jim Himes is a genuine progressive, nonprofit and business leader, an expert on finance, urban poverty and Latin America, and a Rhodes Scholar.  He'll make you proud.  He should be up there with any of these candidates.

CA-03 Bill Durston v. Lungren (4.00 / 1)
Let's not forget about Dr. Bill Durston who is running against Dan Lungren in CA-03.  http://www.durstonforcongress....

The GOP has admitted that Lungren is in trouble and they are pulling funds from other races to help him.

The DCCC has put Durston on the Emerging Races list, but of course, no money yet.  A little money for Durston would go a long way.

Durston's polling shows this race as a dead heat:
http://www.durstonforcongress....

Watch his TV ads and contribute some dough to keep them running.

http://www.actblue.com/page/bu...

http://www.actblue.com/page/co...

When we win this one, it will be the biggest conservative to progressive upset in the country!

Cutting-edge House Races | 16 comments
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