* = If Obama only wins Nevada among these seven, that would force a 269-269 tie, which would almost certainly result in a victory in the House of Representatives, given the large Democratic lead there
(Dark Blue (277): Obama +7.0% or more
Lean Blue (24): Obama +2.6%-+6.9%
White / Toss-up (66): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (30): McCain +2.6%-+6.9%
Dark Red (141): McCain +7.0% or more)
Complete Tracking poll average
Org
Obama
McCain
ABC
53%
44%
Gallup*
51.5%
43.0%
GWU
48%
47%
Hotline
47%
41%
Rasmussen
50%
46%
R2000
50%
42%
TIPP
46.9%
40.9%
Zogby
50.3%
42.4%
Mean
49.6%
43.3%
* = Gallup is an average of their expanded and traditional likely voter models
I notice two things about these numbers. First, Obama is well ahead, with only 14 days left. Second, the number of states where he holds a statistically significant lead has shrunk to its lowest point since October 1st, at least in my reckoning. While that isn't the most heartwarming trend, with only 14 days left, there is good reason to be thankful that Obama built such a large advantage earlier in the month.
Update: New polls from Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina and West Virginia have been added.
STATE BLOGS
