Have people been talking much about Powell? (0.00 / 0)

It seems to me that the media spent more time talking about how Powell would dominate the news cycle than they did in actually talking about him...with the effect that he didn't really dominate the news cycle, at least not after Sunday (when he clearly was a huge story).  But now it's already on to other stuff.    

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by: Haggai @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 15:33:42 PM UTC

Check out RCP (0.00 / 0)

Their averages are also showing this movement over the last three days. The current number is a 7.6 point lead for Obama, which is a tie for his second best day since the conventions (10/11) and not far off his peak of 8.2 on 10/14. It's also the best single day so far in terms of Obama's level of support - 50.6, which beats the 50.2 on the 10/14 peak.

Remember too that they don't include the R2K poll, which is favorable to Obama and shows significant movement in his direction in the daily numbers, and two of the afternoon polls (Gallup, ABC) are quite like to also show good Obama numbers. Also, Zogby's comments on his poll suggest a trend in his daily numbers in addition to the surge in the rolling average.

When I was phone-banking on Sunday, some other volunteers had talked to a few previously undecided who came into the Obama camp after the Powell endorsement. McCain is only a point off his recent peak, so as lot of of the past three day's movement has been undecideds making up their mind.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

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by: fwiffo @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 15:40:16 PM UTC

Republican bounce (0.00 / 0)

It seems to me that any Powell bounce would be from ticket-crossing Republicans who, like the moderate-R punditry, are starting to abandon McCain as a lost cause. Powell not only provides a blistering critique of McCain and a boost to Obama's cred, he provides ideological cover for moderate national security conservatives made uncomfortable by McCain's belligerence and Palin's ignorance. So if you're looking for definitive evidence of a Powell bounce, look in the R2K crosstabs for declining R support for McCain and rising R support for Obama. I can't be arsed to do it myself.

If that's the case, it might rightly be called a Powell/Will/Noonan/Brooks bounce.

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by: corax @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 15:44:30 PM UTC

John McCain's Last Stand. (4.00 / 1)

I think McCain was on a "dead cat bounce" but now he seems to have resumed his slide down to 40%.

Watching the numbers over the past week, each day a few polls seemed to show Obama slipping, but by the end of the day the aggregate of all the polls put him back just about where was at the start of the day.

I think McCain is pulling in hard-core Republicans who maybe left it to the last minute to declare for him, or others who are suffering "buyers regret" with Obama. However, Obama is still doing far better and I would not be surprised to see a renewed surge to 50%+ by the middle of next week.

Powell was a tipping point for many, I think. Some might still have come across, but where Colin could go, many others might find it easier to go there too, and a bit sooner than otherwise.

Oddly enough, McCain may be at his happiest all campaign .. he has his back to the wall, there is not much he can do, all that is left is to is fight it out as best he can, all the tough decisions have been made (or fluffed, if you want to call it that), he is finally boxed in. John McCain's Last Stand.

With stories breaking every day about how crap his campaign has been, and what a disaster Sarah Palin has become, he may as face the firing squad with a spring in his step and a grin on his face.

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by: tobyj @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 15:57:22 PM UTC

Kos has a good post on the inability to effectively smear Obama (0.00 / 0)

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

Americans have already made up their minds that Obama is not a dangerous radical. Powell's comments may have served to harden that somewhat.

I hereby proclaim this trend to be the Reverse Bowers effect -- rather than the race narrowing back to its natural campaign-long 4% lead, it's increasing to a new event-driven 7-8% lead.

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by: Matt H @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 15:57:53 PM UTC

The last 8 years speak for themselves (0.00 / 0)

whatever Obama will be, he won't be as bad as Bush.

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by: Paul Goodman @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 18:17:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Powell-Palin Weekend (0.00 / 0)

I think the Powell endorsement was very important to a certain segment of the population. but the reason for the endorsement was equally important.  In particular, I thought the observation that Palin is not qualified to serve as VP and the lack of judgment shown by McCain was particularly resonant.

Palin also had her big appearance on SNL, which showed her to be a fun person to have a party while actually making her look even less qualified then previously believed.  I think these two events played off of each other to the detriment of the McCain campaign.

Also, many newspapers, including conservative ones, are endorsing Obama for the same reason; Palin cannot handle the presidency should something happen to the 72 year old cancer surviver.

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by: Mark Matson @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 16:41:35 PM UTC

yes (0.00 / 0)

good point on the endorsements. Normally newspaper endorsements haven't been seen to matter. But when a paper goes against it's own reputation with its readers then it may really move the undecided or weakly committed voters.

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by: tremayne @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 16:50:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Powell matters in LA (0.00 / 0)

Lower Alabama, that is.

My mother is a longtime Democrat who lives in southern Alabama. Rural, southern, Alabama. And she says the Powell endorsement was huge among her friends (white senior women who attend Baptist church). She says in Sunday School this week it was the hot topic, leading some to say it had won them over to Obama.

FWIW, she says the other thing that made a big difference among that group was Obama's comments on abortion at the last debate. For many of "these women" (as she calls them), abortion is a huge single issue, and Obama came across as someone who was sensitive about the moral and personal complexities.

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by: spandrel @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 17:18:09 PM UTC

the race will tighten (0.00 / 0)

this election has always been and still is a close race. my prediction: obama 286-252, 52%-47%, a 5% margin of victory. no landslide but a margin of victory greater than bush's in 2004. if it is a landslide, i'll be more than happy to eat my words.  

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by: TA13 @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 18:04:18 PM UTC

Given the demographic background of the nominee (0.00 / 0)

any victory is a blowout.

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by: Paul Goodman @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 18:19:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

AP Obama 44 to McCain 43? (0.00 / 0)

What the hell is the deal with the AP? How do they come up with numbers like that while so many others are at or near double digits for Obama?
http://tinyurl.com/5c6vwn

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by: Kitt @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 19:25:34 PM UTC