I just whipped up my best estimates for current results in seven key states where early voting is well under way:
Early Return Estimates From Key States
| State |
Reporting |
Obama % |
McCain % |
| Colorado |
16% |
49.2% |
49.8% |
| Florida |
11% |
45.2% |
51.2% |
| Georgia |
23% |
46.7% |
52.2% |
| Iowa |
12% |
64.1% |
35.4% |
| New Mexcio |
28% |
53.7% |
46.1% |
| N Carolina |
20% |
55.4% |
44.1% |
| Ohio |
??% |
60.5% |
38.7% |
I arrived at these numbers as follows:
- Information gathered from news articles here and here, plus quick hits here and here.
- Estimated turnout percentage = ((total number of votes cast in 2008) / (total number of vast cast in 2004 * 1.1)). I am assuming a 10% increase in total turnout. It probably won't be that high, but at least I am not over-estimating the percentage of votes cast so far.
- I multiplied the current partisan breakdown of returns according to how they broke according to 2004 exit polls. For example, in 2004, Kerry won 93% of the vote among Colorado Democrats, so I am assuming Obama will so the same.
- In Georgia, I multiplied numbers according to racial breakdown. Everywhere else, it was according to partisan breakdown.
These numbers tell me that things are going OK, but that the campaign is far from won. In particular, Colorado stands out as problematic, since McCain still holds a very slight lead there according to these estimates. Obama only leads in two "victory states," North Carolina and Ohio. I think we should all consider victory in either of those states to be very dicey, especially North Carolina. And I doubt anyone would be happy about the election coming down to Ohio.
One positive is that there are no numbers from Virginia, as I believe there is no partisan registration in the state. If Obama is winning there, then his clearly advantages in Iowa and New Mexico give him a relatively easy path to the White House. However, there is no information from Virginia right now that I know of, so that is purely speculation, nothing more.
Update: Florida numbers were reversed, I fixed them now. Obama is gaining fast in the state, but I estimate that he still trails by about 55,000 votes. Also, Obama could win Georgia if he wins African-Americans by a net 92% (say, 96%-4% or 95%-3%), and if turnout remains at current levels (roughly 36% of the electorate as African-American). The former seems doable. The latter, however, would be the greatest turnout surge I have ever seen, since African-Americans normally make up 28-29% of the Georgia electorate.
Update 2: Yes, I am counting absentee ballots requested, but not returned, in Florida. I know that tilts things toward McCain, but I feel it is the safest, most conservative estimate to make.
Also, check out this great early voting monitoring site.
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