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One question the McCain campaign's decision to keep targeting Pennsylvania in spite of his 11-point deficit is whether a race can be considered done when there is a double-digit deficit with two weeks to go. The question also applies to Senate races like the Collins-Allen race in Maine, the Inhofe-Rice race in Oklahoma, and the Johanns-Kleeb race in Nebraska, all of which have about 11-14 point leads for the Republican according to the most recent public polling.
In keeping with my overall theory about politics and polling, I think the answer to that question is that it depends on what other factors are in play in the state in question and the race in question. Here's three of the biggest variables that need to be considered in all four of the above state contests:
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| 1. Historical voting patterns. Pennsylvania is almost always a state that ends up with a relatively close margin at the end of a Presidential campaign, which is one reason McCain's targeting might make sense- it tends to close at the end. New England as a region has tended to break strongly toward Democrats in recent elections, which is one big reason I have continued to give Allen a fighting chance to close the gap in his race. And Nebraska's and Oklahoma's heavy historical Republican tendencies are why I've tended to be more pessimistic about those two races, although Nebraska has elected some Democratic Senators in recent years.
2. GOTV operations. Any state where the Obama campaign is running a full-scale GOTV operation is going to make a difference up and down the ticket. It's one reason Pennsylvania is still pretty safe from a desperate last-minute surge from the McCain campaign. And one reason Allen has a shot at closing the gap in Maine. With the Obama team working hard in Omaha, that helps Kleeb, but 2/3 of the state doesn't have that advantage. And of course, Rice doesn't have anything going for him in this regard besides his own efforts.
3. Demographics. Some demographic groups in this campaign and in modern political history for that matter, are just a lot more volatile than others, especially older white blue-collar and Catholic voters. Lots of them, of course, in Pennsylvania, which is why McCain still has hopes of turning the tide (hopes growing dimmer by the day, thank God). Maine has a fair share as well, again giving Allen a shot.
There are, of course, plenty of other factors to think about- if you're interested in a longer list, you can check out my post here.
The bottom line is that a double-digit deficit with two weeks to go is obviously a really tough thing to overcome, but some have more reason to hope than others. Of the four case studies I've been referencing here, I would rate Allen's chances in Maine as the best possibility (I'd give him maybe a 35% chance). McCain's chances in Pennsylvania are not impossible but being pretty bleak- even if he starts to come back, I think the Obama field operation is going to be able to hold off any last minute charge. I'd rate Kleeb's chances in Nebraska a little higher than Rice's in Oklahoma, just because of the Obama field operations in Omaha along with Nebraska being generally more open to electing Democratic Senators over the last couple of decades. |
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