Pennsylvania Concern Trolls Feeling The Heat

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 13:46


Now that McCain has adopted a last-minute, last-ditch, long shot Pennsylvania strategy, there has been a lot of concern trolling about my home state, Pennsylvania, recently. In a welcome development, polling shows it hasn't hurt Obama at all, but that it has hurt the concern trolls themselves.

More in the extended entry.

Chris Bowers :: Pennsylvania Concern Trolls Feeling The Heat
Governor Rendell, a particularly famous Democratic concern troll, is firing off memos about the need for Obama to visit Pennsylvania more, probably to cover his ass in the event that McCain's last-ditch Pennsylvania strategy actually works out. This is the essence of concern trolling: express damaging worries about the party in order to help yourself.

The Politico, which I sometimes think should be renamed "The Concern Troll," has a rather remarkable article called "McCain's Path To Victory Through PA."The article takes concern trolling to new levels, as it rounds up every specious argument and concern troll one could find in the state. Remember, Kerry won Pennsylvania by just 144,000 votes, even though he lost the national election by 2.46%. Surely, with the national polls having swung only 10% since 2004, and with Pennsylvania not registering any new Democrats at all, this is an extremely tenuous margin that should scare us all.

An "internal poll" of Pennsylvania supposedly showing Obama only up 2 in the state is getting a lot of play. An email about the poll was forwarded by a random campaign worker to some radio hosts in the state, which is truly a fine example of concern trolling about Pennsylvania. Odd, however, that the poll itself has never been produced, and that it now turns out to be more than a week old. Also, the campaign worker who sent the email was reprimanded.

Jack Murtha, who retracted called people in Western PA "racist" by instead calling them "rednecks," is concern trolling it up. I think this was meant to imply that Pennsylvania voters are wavering on Obama due to racism, and thus keep the campaign from becoming complacent in Pennsylvania. However, in a delicious bit of comuppence, this concern trolling only seems to be hurting Jack Murtha himself, as he only leads by 5% in his re-election campaign. It is nice to see the concern trolls feeling the heat, rather than the target of their concern trolling.

Leaving this concern troll orgy aside to return to the real world for a moment, four polls released this morning all show Obama ahead by double-digits in Pennsylvania. Pollster.com has them all, showing Obama up 10, 10, 13 and 10. Another poll released earlier this week showed Obama up 8%, bringing the five-poll, one-week average to Obama +10.2%. All of these polls are of likely voters, and collectively show Obama at 51.2%, over the important 50% threshold.

It is pretty sweet that this Dionysian episode of concern trolling didn't even slightly damage Obama in Pennsylvania, but did do real damage to at least two of the concern trolls--Jack Murtha and the campaign worker who forwarded the old email. I would like to see more of this in the future, as people who express concerns about Democrats and Democratic campaigns not from a sincere desire to help the party, but instead to forward their own personal agenda, need to be taken down several notches. The results of this campaign are going to put a massive dent in the vast Democratic concern troll industry, and we can already see that happening even before November 4th.


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Standing ovation, Chris (0.00 / 0)
Right effin' on.

personally (4.00 / 2)
My take on Fat Ed and Co. is not so much that they want to cover their own ass, it is that they are just suffering from Myopia.

PA has been close in past years, has never elected a black official statewide, McCain is contesting it, etc., and so, they are a little freaked.  Unnecessarily?  Probably.  But still, given most people I know are still a little queasy about it, I empathize a little..


None of that matters (4.00 / 1)
Everything you list that is making people a ittle queeasy: none of that matters. It is a lot of irrelevant information.

The only measure of where Pennsylvania stands, as with any large, expensive election, is polling. It is the only scientific measure of public opinion. And, accoridng to that, everything is fine.  


[ Parent ]
disagree (0.00 / 0)
I don't think none of it matters.  Past performances, history, and anecdotal but life-long personal experiences all matter to almost everyone when they think about the state of race.  

It is the same reason why people said Obama cannot be up by that much in Ohio and Indiana in the QuickHits.  I don't think they- or Rendell- are concern trolling, as much as trying to reconcile two pieces of conflicting information- their perceptions and the poll numbers.

I am not saying that people shouldn't be more data driven or whatever, or that polls don't give the best snapshot because they are actually quantitative data.  They should be, and polls do.  But there is a difference in what they should do and what their motivation or reasoning is for acting differently than you would like.


[ Parent ]
You are probably right (0.00 / 0)
But that it why it is also remarkably easy to make a living forecasting elections. All you need to do is look at the polls, but virtually no one is willing to do that.

[ Parent ]
Geez. (4.00 / 1)
I hope you weren't saying that same thing right before the New Hampshire primary.

[ Parent ]
wasn't (4.00 / 2)
Kerry supposed to lose PA too because he committed some silly sin or other regarding a cheesesteak sandwich?

Where did Obama order Orange juice instead of coffee?  He will lose that state for sure.  In some bizzaro universe, a goateed chris matthews is discussing how ordering OJ with breakfast won Florida for Obama.


ok, but (0.00 / 0)
it's kind of a stretch to call the campaign worker a concern troll under your definition. Do you think this guy was really trying to forward his own personal agenda? It looks like he was just overzealously trying to rally the troops. He deserved a reprimand, but doesn't deserve your accusations.

Chris - you make me happy! :) (0.00 / 0)
I was believing the worriers, and I was accusing Murtha of being a 5th columnist (still kinda am).  As soon as my throat lets me talk for longer than 1 minute at a time, I'm going to start calling into a battleground state (my original plan was to call into PA, but if you guys say you've got it - I'm going to apply myself elsewhere!)

QT

Visit the Obama Project


WindOnWater.net




Is McCain really going all in for PA though? (0.00 / 0)
This blurb at TPM suggests not, as it shows him trimming TV ads by a bit there, and instead pumping up VA and FL.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talk...

With McCain also trimming in CO, this basically means his advertising is not consistent with an all-in longshot play for PA and 270+ EVs.  Indeed, his advertising strategy suggests he may be going out with a whimper, not a bang.

I think he's out of gas.  There is no more money to saturate the airwaves, and if there were, he'd have a hard time finding slots due to Obama's purchases.  We're all sitting around waiting for Rev. Wright and other smears to go to 11.  Now I wonder if it may even happen.  The October surprise may be: There is no October surprise.


No Bradley Effect in PA in 2006 (0.00 / 0)
The big concern is that McCain might tap into a Bradley effect in PA to defeat Obama in that state.

Rendell's own experience proves that wrong.

Ed Rendell ran against Lynn Swann that year - and it looks like the final polls
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

had Rendell up by an average of 21.8%

Per the election http://www.electionreturns.sta...

Rendell won by 20.8%.

Which could be read as statistical noise, or possibly a modest reverse Bradley effect.


This is classic politics (0.00 / 0)
Look, politicians are never, ever up big, even if they are.  The last thing you want from your people is complacency, so you lie and say its close.  Right now, we have to take the word of these state leaders the same way we take the word of GM's going into the NFL draft - we just accept that they're lying to us.  That's just the way it is.






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