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House Forecast, October 24th

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 19:00

The new House Forecast is up. The current projection is a net Democratic gain of 23-29 seats, up slightly from Sunday's projection of 22-28 seats. If my numbers are correct, the next Congress will feature a partisan breakdown of anywhere from D 259-176 R to D 265-170 R. Here are the category changes:

FL-08 upgraded to "Lean Dem" from "Toss-up"
FL-18 upgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Likely Rep"
ID-01 upgraded to "Toss-up" from "Lean Rep"
MN-06 upgraded to "Toss-up" from "Lean Rep"
PA-12 downgraded to "Lean Dem" from "uncompetitive"

So, not too many changes. Read the entire forecast here.

I was very tempted to upgrade Darcy's campaign to "Lean Dem," but the various smear campaigns being run against her, together with the NRCC's decision to hang in the district, kept it at a toss-up. I say, we help blow through that barrier, by throwing a few bucks her way. Daily Kos has already raised nearly $100K for Darcy in the last 24 hours-let's join in the fun!

Chris Bowers :: House Forecast, October 24th

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Tags: WA-08, Darcy Burner, better Democrats, House 2008, House forecast, (All Tags)

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House Forecast, October 24th | 3 comments

Conservative (0.00 / 0)

I think your numbers are very conservative, Chris - probably a best-case scenario for the Republicans. If - just if - Obama has a 10-point win where states like GA and MT are swept along, I could see 10-15 absolute shock results (especially in the South), and a net pickup of 40-45 seats. If, as seems more likely, it's a 3-5 point national margin I would say 30 is the most likely number.

by: Deeg @ Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 19:56:45 PM CDT

Think bigger: Clean House! (0.00 / 0)

This is the year to replace GOP theme team leader Jack Kingston with a progressive Democrat, Bill Gillespie in GA-01.

Or you can follow Jack's advice for "the Democrat Party" and get married and work longer hours.

by: jsq @ Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 11:21:00 AM CDT

Awesome Forecast. (0.00 / 0)

A 100 seat margin would be really cool. (A side note, I think you may have reversed the cash on hand numbers in the CA-26 race.)

Saxby Chambliss, worse than disgraceful; he's reprehensible.

by: gunnar @ Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 13:51:33 PM CDT

House Forecast, October 24th | 3 comments

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