Methodology
The methodology for the forecast is simple and straightforward.
- For each state, all polls with the majority of their interviews conducted within the last 7 days from publication of the forecast are included in the averages. There are some necessary exceptions to this rule.
- Every state has at least one poll. In the event that one poll taken within the past week are not available, the most recent polls are used. (Note: "Most recent" is determined by the mid-point in the dates of the polls. For example, a poll taken from 9/15-9/17 has a mid-pint of 9/16. In the event that more than one poll shares the most recent mid-point (within 0.5), all polls with that mid-point are included in the average.)
- The second exception comes with polling firms that have conducted more than two poll in a state over the last 7 days. Every polling firm only has one poll per average.
- All telephone polls are included with equal weight. However, no Internet polls are used.
During the final week of the election, only polls taken entirely within the past seven days will be included in the averages (with the same exceptions listed above, of course). The targeting and swing state chart does not show every state, only the range of states that are currently receiving the most attention from campaigns and commenters on Open Left.
Analysis
Obama now reaches 269 in Colorado, where he leads by 7.3%. Even if it wouldn't be the sort of victory we want, 269 is enough to win, given that Democrats control the majority of state delegations in the U.S. House. Overall, Obama holds some sort of lead in states worth 378 electoral votes, which puts him in the same range as Bill Clinton in both 1992 (370) and 1996 (379).
It is worth noting that Republicans have not reached 300 electoral votes since 1988, and won't do so this year either. In fact, it is worth noting that, at least according to wikipedia, Republicans have not won 50%+1 of the popular vote for the U.S. House since 1946, and they certainly won't break that streak this year, either. From 1990-2006, the only two majority votes came from Bush in 2004, and House Democrats in 2006.
My point is that after the 2008 elections, Democrats will actually have been the dominant party in American elections over the past twenty years. We will have won four of the five popular votes for President, and won by the three largest margins. We will have also won the largest margins in Congress, received a larger share of the popular vote, and actually won more total House and Senate seats total from 1990-2008. So much for the meme that Democrats can't win. Looks to me like the shoe will be on the other foot. |
STATE BLOGS
