The new House Forecast is up. This will be my second-to-last House Forecast, with the final one coming on Monday. This week, I project a Democratic net gain of 19-26 seats, with my best guess at 23. This is down a bit from last week, when I forecasted a Democratic gain of 23-29 seats, with my best guess at 26. As with the Presidential and Senate campaigns, I am projecting a bit of movement back toward Republicans. Still, as with the Presidential and Senate campaigns, the overall picture is still excellent for Democrats. Here are the category changes:
Republican-held seats
FL-13 upgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Likely Rep"
FL-21 downgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Toss-up"
IA-04 upgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Likely Rep"
MD-01 downgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Toss-up"
MN-03 downgraded to "Toss-up" from "Lean Dem"
MO-06 downgraded to "Likely Rep" from "Lean Rep"
MO-09 downgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Toss-up"
NJ-05 upgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Likely Rep"
NM-02 downgraded to "Toss-up" from "Lean Dem"
NC-05 upgraded to "Likely Rep" from "Uncompetitive"
NC-10 upgraded to "Likely Rep" from "Uncompetitive"
PA-03 downgraded to "Toss-up" from "Lean Dem"
PA-15 downgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Toss-up"
SC-01 upgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Likely Rep"
SC-02 upgraded to "Likely Rep" from "Uncompetitive"
Democratic-held seats
KS-02 upgraded to "Lean Dem" from "Toss-up"
ME-01 downgraded to "Likely Dem" from "Uncompetitive"
PA-11 downgraded to "Lean Rep" from "Toss-up"
TX-22 downgraded to "Likely Rep" from "Toss-up"
Read the entire forecast here. No doubt, there will be many readers who consider my projection conservative. However, the local trend over the past few days does not feel strong for us, and so I have downgraded quite a few campaigns. The final projection comes out in four days.
STATE BLOGS
