First, McCain has conceded 203 electoral votes to Obama. That is, in states where both Kerry and Gore won, McCain isn't running any ads in states worth 203 electoral votes. He is ran about 24K of ads in Maine last week, but the RNC pulled out and Pollser.com shows Obama ahead by 16.9% in the state. So, I'll mark Maine down in the Obama column, too, giving him 207. Here is a look at four other states that puts Obama up to 238:
IA, MN, NH, and WI Polls 10/24-10/30
| State |
EV's |
Obama % |
McCain % |
Margin |
Polls |
Obama EVs |
| Obama Lock |
207 |
|
|
|
|
207 |
| Iowa |
7 |
54.0% |
39.5% |
+14.5% |
2 |
214 |
| Minnesota |
7 |
54.0% |
40.3% |
+13.7% |
4 |
224 |
| Wisconsin |
10 |
52.7% |
40.7% |
+12.0% |
3 |
234 |
| New Hampshire |
4 |
52.3% |
41.0% |
+11.3% |
4 |
238 |
Blowout city in these four states. From this point, only Colorado, New Mexico and Pennsylvania are needed for victory.
Looking at Colorado and New Mexico, more than half of the vote has already been cast. In Colorado, as I noted last night, Obama leads early voters by 15% in Rasmussen, 18% in Marist and 17% in PPP. The tight grouping of these numbers gives them a lot of credibility, and means that McCain must win the remaining voters by a minimum of 18.4% (but probably by way more). The polling situation is much worse for McCain in New Mexico, and roughly the same percentage of early votes have been cast. There really just isn't anyway for McCain to win either Colorado or New Mexico right now. Nate Silver didn't quite come out and say as much this morning, but he came pretty close.
That puts Obama at 252 electoral votes, with only Pennsylvania's 21 electoral needed for victory. If it wasn't clear before, the logic of McCain's Pennsylvania strategy should be clear now. McCain has to win Pennsylvania in order to win the election. Period. He has no other path right now. So, effectively, when I am calling the election for Obama, I am really just calling Pennsylvania for Obama. It's the same thing. Pennsylvania is the win state.
In the five Pennsylvania polls taken entirely since October 26th, Obama leads by an average of 50.4%--43.6%. Holding onto that lead is all Obama has to do in order to win the election. While that is a bit closer than it has been recently, it includes a Republican polling firm ("Strategic" "Vision") that always skews toward Republicans, and Obama is over 50%. McCain hasn't led in a telephone poll here since April 24th, and hasn't passed 47% in a telephone poll here since the same time period. And, as a member of the Pennsylvania state Democratic committee, I am indeed willing to guarantee an Obama victory in Pennsylvania.
Now, if this de-motivates you, then we come from different places. This analysis psyches me up huge. I want to go canvass my neighborhood right now, but it is Halloween and everyone in the city is downtown cheering for the Phillies right now. Tomorrow, I'm hitting the pavement, and not stopping until everyone in my division (precinct) has been canvassed. I want to kick their butt even harder. I want to be the win state.
If this makes you superstitious, then we really come from different places. Not only am I a very analytical, non-spiritual person, but the city where I live just broke a twenty-five year curse (The Curse of Willie Penn). So, out here in Philly, I am feeling pretty superstition proof right now.
One thing is for certain, I want to win by a lot more than 273-265. We need a large electoral victory, 51.0%+ of the popular vote, and huge majorities in Congress. We need everything that gives Democrats a mandate, and the numbers to enforce that mandate in D.C. We are going to get the win, but of course that is no reason to stop working. Let's pile it on. Let's get out there and kick some more ass, but do it with a confidence in victory, and a strut that Democrats have lacked for so long. |
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