Election Predictions

by: Mike Lux

Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 15:30


Since Chris has put out his predictions today (here and here), I think I should follow up with my own assessment, just to get you really jazzed. Some caveats on my predictions:

  • I, of course, look at numbers- polling, early voting, etc.- when making my predictions. But I also rely on instinct and emotion, which is why I would never suggest people make big bets on my predictions. There are certain races where my head tells me one thing but my heart absolutely won't let me predict a loss.

  • I find myself torn between not wanting to be too optimistic on the one hand, and on the other hand thinking all this enthusiasm and field work is going to allow us to really roll up some big numbers. My predictions here are more the former than the latter.

Here is my final assessment on the state of the elections right now:
Mike Lux :: Election Predictions
Presidential

I think Obama will win in all the states Kerry won. New Hampshire is a little volatile with all those independents who know McCain so well, but Obama's lead seems pretty strong. Pennsylvania is the only other state being heavily contested, and the gap there has closed as I expected it to all along (Pennsylvania is always competitive, no matter what the election dynamics are in a given cycle), but Obama should still win by about 4-5 points. The Bush states I believe Obama will take are:

  • Iowa, 7 electoral votes: consistent lead. Great Obama organization, strong state party organization

  • New Mexico, 5 electoral votes: Hispanics breaking strongly Obama's way, and Obama has kept a solid lead there

  • Colorado, 9 electoral votes: Great Obama organization, great outside progressive infrastructure, steady lead in the polls

  • Virginia, 13 electoral votes: The numbers are tightening in Virginia, as was expected all along, but early voting has been going on for awhile, and black turnout will be extraordinary

  • Ohio, 20 electoral votes: Yes, I believe the Rosetta Stone of American politics, the always targeted Ohio, will come in for Obama. It will be close, it always is. There will be voter suppression shenanigans, there always are. But the state party organization is far stronger than in 2004, Gov. Strickland is working like a maniac for Obama, there's a Democratic Secretary of State helping people to vote rather than trying to stop them from doing it, and African-Americans are going to come in not only in bigger numbers than four years ago, but 10 points higher in Democratic percentage than four years ago.

  • Nevada, 5 electoral votes: With Hispanics breaking so heavily Obama's way, and Democratic registration so much higher than four years ago, I think Obama will win here.

The states that are toughest for me to call are Florida (27 electoral votes), Missouri, (11 electoral votes) and North Carolina (15 electoral votes), all really close. With Obama's overall numbers in the South slipping, it seems like these three might just barely slip away.

I expect McCain to win the other currently close states (Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Arizona), but it sure is fun that they are even possibilities.

Senate

I believe the Democrats will hold all of their current seats, and pick up seats in Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Oregon, all by a few points or more. The outrageous "Godless" ad being run by Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina is backfiring, and black turnout will put Hagan over the top. Early voting in Oregon is giving Merkley a big edge.

The three states toughest to call are Minnesota, Kentucky, and Georgia. There are good reasons to believe Republicans will hang on in all three, and good reasons to think the Democrats might pull it off. Franken was running a little ahead a week ago, slightly behind today, all within the margin of error. I'm guessing the Obama GOTV operation will give Franken the edge he needs. Kentucky and Georgia have incredibly well-funded Republicans in surprisingly tough battles. If Obama's trend downward in the South continues, it will be extremely hard for Lunsford and Martin to pull it off. But high black turnout, especially in Georgia, might create a surprise. What the hell, I'm going out on a limb and predicting the Democrats win both, although my head says that's pretty unlikely.

I don't believe Democrats will win their challenge races in Mississippi, Maine, or any of the other five interesting races (Nebraska, Idaho, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas) in spite of some terrific candidates.

House

I predict a Democratic pick up, a net of 26 seats. A lot of it depends on whether Democrats can win a higher percentage of the close races than they have in recent elections.

--

I admit that I haven't been following non-federal races enough to make predictions in them, but I do think the overall Democratic tide will help in a lot of down-ballot races. Keep an eye especially on the Washington gubernatorial race and on the New York State Senate, Pennsylvania House, Ohio House, Indiana House, Tennessee Senate, and Wisconsin House and Senate in terms of redistricting- very tight battles in all of them. I haven't followed ballot initiatives as much as usual, so I can't make predictions there either, but I do think we're going to win the Proposition 8 battle in California.

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Election Predictions | 30 comments
I think you are a bit conservative... (4.00 / 1)
... but no harm in that.
Cautious - not "Conservative" (0.00 / 0)
Cautious is a more appropriate term, for when we finally are able to call a candidate a "Conservative" - and the voting public realizes how much "Conservatives" are against American values.
[ Parent ]
"Conservative" has become the self designation of reactionary zealots (4.00 / 1)
in the context of political framing.

But in scientific discourse, the term continues to mean prudent, cautious, restraining the desire to extrapolate.

In the context of political science, the result is cognitive dissonance.  

There is no such thing as a free market.

[ Parent ]
Alaska? (4.00 / 2)
What about the Senate race in Alaska?  
Forgot about that one (0.00 / 0)
It's a win.
[ Parent ]
Agree with almost everything (4.00 / 1)
Big exception is Prop 8, which sadly I think is going to win by a not insignificant, and perhaps surprising, margin. Bear in mind that many of the new Democratic voters the presidential is going to pull out are going to be more socially conservative than the average, particularly Latino. They are under-surveyed and may not be willing to admit their preference in this campaign.

I think you got the presidential spot on. Suspect those three southern swing states (MO, NC, FL) all so "south" by a point or two, but we'll know who the next President is by the time polls close in PA and VA. Similar in Senate, I think we lose all the southern close ones (GA, KY, and MS) with GA likely not concluding until December. Minnesota isn't decided until Wednesday at best. And we pick up about 30 House seats, a good 15 of which will be bears to hold onto in 2010 (if Repubs reading this are looking for a bit of silver lining).

Any basis (0.00 / 0)
For your statement that Latino voters are more socially conservative than others?
[ Parent ]
They are heavily Catholic... (4.00 / 2)
and more pro-life than the rest of Democratic coalition. I don't have stats or links handy to prove it. I do think Prop 8 will barely go down, but still go down.
[ Parent ]
Does heavily Catholic and more pro-life... (0.00 / 0)
... necessarily mean that Latino voters will tend more to vote yes on measure 8? If that's what you're saying (which isn't necessarily the case), those are some pretty broad generalizations without data.
[ Parent ]
here's evidence (4.00 / 1)
Both in the previous Prop 22 exit polls and polls from this summer.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.co...


New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

[ Parent ]
You May Be Right, But I Wouldn't Count On It (0.00 / 0)
There's a pretty good ad aimed directly on this point.  I've only seen the English-language version, but there must be even more exposure for the Spanish-language version--and radio as well.  It starts off saying how important family is for Latinos--so you think it's going to be pro-Prop 8.  It's totally unapologetic, and I think that's going to be quite helpful.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3
[ Parent ]
And Then There's This No-Nonsense Ad (4.00 / 3)

Which is just the sort of straight-forward push-back that's needed.

The narrator doesn't hurt, either.


"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
And the points made... (0.00 / 0)
Should be why the SCOTUS should rule in favor of the principle that if one state recognizes a gay marriage... ALL of them have too.  

Of course with the Wingnuts on there it won't happen.  Those judicial activists will work to legislate their agenda and break the law.

[ Parent ]
Prop 8 (0.00 / 0)
Prop 8 is currently losing 49%-44% according to a new Field poll.
[ Parent ]
The polls disprove you (4.00 / 2)
The Field Poll, linked in a comment above mine, shows Latinos are opposing Prop 8 46-48. The "socially conservative Latino" is the Chupacabra of California politics - a legend that has never actually been proven to exist.
[ Parent ]
I am pretty skeptical about Kentucky. (0.00 / 0)
Even though it would be really, really awesome to win it. The numbers coming in seem to be getting worse rather than better, and Lunsford was somewhat behind even beforehand.

I'd love to hear any counterevidence you might have which leads you to predict a win.

Good predictions (4.00 / 1)
Although not too risky.  

Right now, every state you predict for Obama is +5, so, you leave yourself a lot of room.

That's 311 electoral votes by the way - pretty good.

Like you "The states that are toughest for me to call are Florida (27 electoral votes), Missouri, (11 electoral votes) and North Carolina (15 electoral votes)".

This is why the range is from 311, if you think McCain will win none of those 3, to 364, to 364, if Obama wins all 3.

I have to think that the odds are, Obama wins at least 1, right, of NC or FL?  This brings the margin to minimum of 326.

At any rate - I'm going to assume that Missouri goes to McCain, and hope to be pleasantly surprised.

This gives my prediction range from 326 to 353, because I'm taking the 311, and then saying that Obama will win ONE of NC or FL.


Corrections (0.00 / 0)
Actually, my range would 326 to 338.  

[ Parent ]
Hmm... (0.00 / 0)
Like you, I kind of go back and forth between the "conservative" model and the more exciting one... but I'm starting to lean more towards "exciting".

McCain still has trouble reaching over 46% (he's at 47% in Ras now... but this is a pretty recent development and he has yet to exceed it).  I think we're looking at a 7-8 point Obama win, but an even better EV total because of the swing-state targeting.  I think Obama ends up picking up every toss-up on Pollster.com except for maybe MT, ND, and GA, but with decent chances even at those as well as (just barely) AZ.  It seems like the infomercial may be pushing one last wave in Obama's direction that has a good chance of cresting on election day, pushing all of these states into Obama's column along with Obama's extremely solid ground game and McCain literal lack of one (they have NO paid ground-game operation now... only volunteers).

my predictions are similar (0.00 / 0)
Agree with your Presidential tiers, but think Obama will definitely win NC (called no later than 11:00), and definitely lose MO (very late call, as it will tighten late as in primary).  FL is my only true toss-up, but think McCain holds it if forced to pick now.  Agree that 311 EVs is Obama's floor.

Senate +9 - AK, MN, NC, NH, VA, CO, NM, OR, GA (Martin leads in November vote by <1%, wins runoff thanks to MAJOR Dem energy and netroots money).

House +27.

Al Franken (0.00 / 0)
You may have seen that Norm Coleman filed a lawsuit against Franken for defamation of character.   Good Grief!!!   It's a silly lawsuit and, in my opinion, it makes Coleman look petty and wimpy.  

I expect this action will produce a backlash against Coleman.  That will probably drive more votes to (third party candidate) Barkley than Franken but Franken still benefit in the end.  

I've not seen any polls to support this but I know MN quite well

I'm more optimistic about Franken in MN.

No proof whatsoever... (0.00 / 0)
...but I think this will result in a more visible counterstory, via the press, regarding the Coleman's alleged infidelity with respect to his wife.  It's been an undercurrent for a while now, and I suspect it will get above-board play before the election.

Whether it will help or hurt I have no idea.  Minnesota's Senate race is one that leaves me totally stressed and uncertain as to the final result.

[ Parent ]
IIRC, when Billo sued Franken, (4.00 / 1)
it was literally laughed out of court,
and helped Al sell more books.

I expect Coleman will get a similar result.

There is no such thing as a free market.

[ Parent ]
Pres Prediction (4.00 / 1)
I'm guessing...

Obama 52.5%
McCain 47.5%
Other  2%

EV Obama - 364 McCain 174

right there with you (0.00 / 0)
that's my feeling as well.  a friend i respect gave a much bigger margin, so who knows.   I say 35% chance the margin is greater than 5 points.  
[ Parent ]
Lets just say... (0.00 / 0)
I hope I'm wrong and the margin is much higher 10% or more... and he gets over 400 EVs... THAT would kick ass.
[ Parent ]
Georgia senate (0.00 / 0)

I predict the GA senate race is close and goes to a runoff (which happens if nobody gets over 50%).  What happens in the runoff is anybody's guess, but I suspect Chambliss will pull it off without Obama coattails for Martin.
Hunch about Missouri (4.00 / 1)
As a native Missourian I clearly want my state to turn blue so I'm not totally objective.  Missouri was the closest state in the primaries and it may be the closest Nov. 4 as well.  I feel good about it because our side has the most enthusiasm and, by far, the best ground game especially where it really makes a difference, in big cities and inner suburbs.  The state will also be a test of the so-called Bradley effect -- even if it is only a point, it could easily be the difference.  In the end I'm optimistic because I think we will make solid gains in the far suburbs & ex-urbs, especially in St. Charles and Jefferson counties.
Prop 8 prediction (0.00 / 0)
Loses by wider than expected margins b/c people who tell pollsters they will vote "yes" vote "no" in the booth.

The biggest differential will be in the African-American community.

Are you factoring in the GOTV ground game? (4.00 / 1)
In 2004, Rove's turnout operation kicked our collective butts, but NOT THIS TIME!

After they pick themselves out of the ditch and go through the stages of grief,
they will recall the GOP convention mocking Obama for being a community organizer.

Obama by +200 EVs!

There is no such thing as a free market.

Election Predictions | 30 comments
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