National Untightening

by: tremayne

Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 18:00


Here's the Halloween edition of the tracking poll average, now with seven daily trackers: Zogby, R2Kos, Rasmussen, Hotline, Gallup LVE (using expanded to offset more conservative LV models in other trackers), TIPP and ABC.  See Quick Hits for individual poll results. Bottom line: the gentle "tightening" appears to be over.

 

Really, even over the 12 days shown here, things have been very stable. Barack Obama's support only varied within one point from 49.7 to 50.7 while John McCain's support fluctuated a bit more, between 42.5 and 44.2. Over this period the average Obama lead has been 6.9 percent and today it is 6.7 percent.

Things have narrowed in Pennsylvania but Obama leads there and in most of the battleground states by significantly more than he does nationally.

tremayne :: National Untightening

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The last day of polling (0.00 / 0)
has been pretty crushing for the GOP.

Whatever hope they had has been essentially crushed.


Is This The Undecideds Starting To Break? (4.00 / 1)
I think the so called undecideds are pragmatic white women waiting to see if another Rev. Wright type will show up. The infomercial, Bill, Al, and Hill are bringing them home.  The way the Obama campaign is put together is masterful.  

For all you fellow "landslide believers," keep hope alive.

Good post.


also, these plots are deceptive (0.00 / 0)
Since they are three day tracking polls, only every third point is independent.  So Obama's numbers from today backwards are 50.5, 50.1, 50.7, 50.3 which is no movement at all.  McCain gained a point with 43.8, 44.1, 42.5, 42.7.



New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.


true, not independent (4.00 / 1)
but all that really does is smooth out the line a little...the general trend would be the same.

[ Parent ]
But...but...but! (0.00 / 0)
Ayers!  Wright!  A-R-U-G-U-L-A!!!!!!!!!

The un-tigh-te-ning (4.00 / 1)

Hey Sarah!
Look at me.
We can see the reality
Cause it shook us all out of our world
It untightened
Suddenly it untightened
The un-tigh-te-ning

Now I see polls
For what they are
It untightened for us
And it can untighten for them!

And it untightened...
And it untightened...

Saw the light too late,
When that fickle finger of fate
It came and popped Palin's pretty balloon
I woke up, suddenly I just woke up
To the un-tigh-te-ning.

 (Serious apologies to Holland-Dozier-Holland and the Supremes.)  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn


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