| Here's the breakdown of governors:
And combining the two previous maps, here's the breakdown of state government control:
Back in September, NCSL's elections expert, Tim Storey, wrote an election preview arcticle. At the time, he wrote, there were 11 governor races--Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Utah, Vermont, Washington and West Virginia--of which only Missouri and Washington were seen as competitive, and both were rated tossups by Larry Sabato, the only election expert cited. Moving on to legislative races, he wrote:
Partisan Landscape
The Democratic advantage in governors is matched in legislatures. Democrats control both chambers in 23 states compared to 14 for Republicans. In 12 states, party control is divided. (The Nebraska Legislature is both nonpartisan and unicameral.) The last time Democrats controlled more than 23 states was before the 1994 election, when Republicans walloped Democrats by seizing the majority in 21 chambers. Currently, Democrats have a 57 to 39 edge in control of individual chambers. There are two legislative bodies that have an equal number of Republicans and Democrats-the Oklahoma and Tennessee senates.
History suggests that success for either Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama will produce a coattail effect. Since the 1940 election of Franklin Roosevelt, the party winning the presidency has gained legislative seats in 11 of the 17 elections. That trend did not hold in 2004 when Republicans suffered a net loss of 25 seats despite George Bush's reelection. On average, the party that wins the White House adds more than 125 legislative seats to its column.
Going into this election, there are 3,993 Democratic legislators-almost 55 percent of all seats held by the two major parties. There are 3,310 Republican legislators-45 percent of the total. Only 21 legislators are independent or from other parties.
But, of course, what political junkies really care about is where action is, the places where control is up for grabs:
On The Bubble
At least 28 of the 84 legislative chambers with elections this year can be called battlegrounds with either party having a chance to emerge with a majority. At the top of the list are the Oklahoma and Tennessee senates, which are tied. In nine other chambers (Alaska Senate, Maine Senate, Montana Senate, Nevada Senate, New York Senate, Indiana House, Montana House, Oregon House, and Pennsylvania House) a shift of only one seat would change the majority.
The list of key states that are on the bubble may be most remarkable because it includes several of the biggest states where legislative control could have a major impact on congressional redistricting of large U.S. House delegations in 2011. The house in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas, along with the New York Senate, are all close enough to be in play.
Republicans have only a one-seat majority in the New York Senate after Democrats won a special election earlier this year. Democrats have not controlled the Empire State Senate since the 1966 election and have had the majority for only 14 of the past 100 years. It would be a big prize for Democrats.
But many of the closest battleground chambers will have Democrats on the defensive. Republican strategists are especially hopeful about the GOP's prospects in the Indiana House, Maine Senate, Michigan House, Pennsylvania House, Tennessee House and Wisconsin Senate. The key according to Carrie Cantrell, spokeswoman for the Republican State Leadership Committee, is remembering that all politics are local. She says Republican candidates "have had great success by running races focused on local issues and things that matter directly to the district." Cantrell adds that the national GOP legislative effort is meeting fundraising targets and has a strong organization in place.
For Democrats, the best chances for taking control appear to be the Delaware House, Montana House, Nevada Senate, New York Senate, Ohio House, and Wisconsin Assembly. None of these will be easy. Michael Sargeant, executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, is taking nothing for granted. "We're excited about our chances for gains this year, but our candidates still have to get out and work hard."
On October 25, the NYT weighed in with a fair and balanced front-page story, "G.O.P. Senses Opportunities in Statehouse Races", but offered zero evidence that the GOP stands to gain more seats this year. Here are the first four paragraphs. All the spin is GOP, but the facts, not so much:
The bad news for Republicans in 2006, when Democrats surged to power and majority control in many legislative chambers, is now their good fortune as Democrats struggle to retain those gains.
"There are vulnerable Democrats in traditionally Republican seats, and the natural dynamic is that Republicans would win back at least some of these," said Lawrence R. Jacobs, the director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota. "But the name brand for the Republican Party has taken a hit, and these lower-party races could be one of the places that that shows up. It's a mixed-up year."
Of the top 12 battleground chambers as identified by the National Conference of State Legislatures, a nonpartisan research group, six are considered opportunities for a flip from a Republican to Democratic majority, and six are the reverse, with possible flips from Democratic to Republican control.
Certainly, many Democrats are getting a boost from an energized party and the growth of newly registered voters, candidates and party leaders say. But Republicans also see chances for gains.
In fact, if anything the shitty national campaign has probably dampened GOP chances down ballot. The table below--derived from combining two different NCSL tables--shows where we stand heading into the election.
With the GOP's national brand in disgrace, and an influx of new Democratic voters mobilized during the primaries and after, Tuesday is a very promising night for us at the state level.
Okay, so now it's your turn. What's happening in YOUR state??? |
