The Moment Moderate Republicans Turn into Losers

by: Matt Stoller

Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 20:53


Reichert just switched up his ad traffic, substituting this ad for his earlier Harvard Hoax ads.  His Harvard Hoax ads were a clear attack on Burner's trustworthiness as a candidate, but this ad, titled 'Denise', is entirely different.  It's a female union leader named Denise Spencer saying that she's scared of Darcy Burner and only slightly alluding to the Harvard hoax line of criticism.  It is, in short, a change of message three days before the election and after a good number of ballots have come in.

Matt Stoller :: The Moment Moderate Republicans Turn into Losers

Burner volunteers reported a poll last week by someone asking about various lines of attack on Darcy, and it was clear that someone was doing research on the race.  My guess now is that it was the Reichert campaign, and they realized the Harvard ad, though sticky and memorable, didn't persuade anyone to vote for Reichert.  There are more clear shifts in strategy.  After mocking the Burner campaign for sending out two glossy magazine pieces titled 'Darcy' with long articles on Burner's policy ideas and various endorsements, the Reichert campaign has come out with their own magazine mail piece titled 'Reichert'.  

It seems like a laughable shift in strategy.  There's one other possibility, which is that a swing block - younger female independents and Democrats - could move to Reichert with the right persuasion message.  The other possibility is that Reichert just hit his loser moment.

This is a certain moment I've noticed among 'moderates' being challenged by progressives, when these moderates run out of arguments to make and begin to resort to tin-eared attacks.  In 2006, Nancy Johnson went after Chris Murphy for letting terrorists make phone calls, and you sort of realized she had turned into a loser.  When Al Wynn went after Donna Edwards for not renewing her law license, or Lieberman ran a weird Lowell Weicker bear ad, or Gordon Smith went harshly negative at Merkley for helping rapists, you realized that they just weren't in tune with the voters.  That's how John McCain has run his campaign, and it became clear he was a complete failure when Palin gave her interview to Katie Couric.  His 'maverick' choice, his brand, had gotten blown out of the water by intrepid interviewer Katie Couric?!?

This loser moment happens for a number of reasons.  It's partially an ego thing, where a lot of these candidates simply cannot and will not believe that someone dares to challenge them, let alone some liberal.  It's partially that the concept of a 'moderate Republican' or 'moderate Democrat' doesn't actually make any sense in an age of polarization.  And it's partially that no one actually knows how to market moderate conservatives in this new progressive environment, and so the marketing is just bad.  Usual charges like 'she's a liberal' don't work; it's been so long since liberals were in charge of anything or had a clear brand that it's no longer even an insult.

There's no value in the conservative brand right now, voters trust Democrats on every single issue with the possible exception of terrorism, and terrorism is just not the dominant voting issue anymore.  The anti-crime arguments of the 1980s?  Gone.  The economy?  Gone.  Health care?  Ha!  Taxes?  Gone.  There's really nothing left except character attacks and a weird anti-partisan message.  And so that's what we're seeing.


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Who is Denise Spencer? .. (0.00 / 0)
and what union(s) does she represent?

Seattle NACTA (0.00 / 0)
Looks like she is the secretary for the Seattle Air Traffic Controllers.

[ Parent ]
So she supports the party .. (0.00 / 0)
that busted their union? ... nice!!

[ Parent ]
Terrorism (4.00 / 4)
voters trust Democrats on every single issue with the possible exception of terrorism

That there's still this lingering idea that the Repubs are better on national security is beyond maddening.  


"Democrat" my ass. (4.00 / 8)
I hate when Republicans pose as Democrats. When I was canvassing in PA, I saw a house with a few of those "Another Democrat for McCain" signs, along with half a dozen others all supporting local Republicans. A few months ago I was in line at a convention and this woman kept going on about how fair and balanced Bill O'Reilly, backing up her claims by assuring us that she was a registered Democrat.

You know what, just because you're too lazy to change your registration does not make you a Democrat. If you're voting straight Republican and like to listen to Rush Limbaugh, you're not a Democrat no matter what it says on your voter registration card. And if you're tearing down Democrats in favor of Republicans, you are no Democrat. You are a fraud.


How about if you know the Repig party is about to (4.00 / 2)
become extinct, and you don't want to share in the blame?  We've been seeing a lot of that lately, and we're about to see a lot more.

[ Parent ]
I wish Susan Collins had that trouble. (4.00 / 1)
Her signs say: "Susan Collins: Our Senator."

That's her tag line. Our senator. I'll be knocking on doors on Monday, but ...


I don't know if I'm jealous of you or grateful I'm not you (4.00 / 1)
My pet peeve is the "moderate Republican," and you Mainers have the most fraudulent ones. Snowe and Collins are as unprincipled as Reichert, Norm Coleman, Gordon Smith, etc., but the media never calls them out. Moreover, being to the left of the McCain-Palin party doesn't make you moderate. Voting with Bush 70% of the time (despite promises to oppose him) doesn't make you a moderate. I wish I could canvass for Tom Allen, but I live thousands of miles away. On the flip side, I might have a meltdown if I had to face Obama-Collins voters (not just read about them on the internet).

I've heard Collins is getting 1/3 of the Democratic vote. Do you think that's true? Regardless of the outcome, I think the race will be closer than the polls indicate. I'm hoping all of the newly registered Democrats vote straight ticket as well. One shining light is the fact that Maine is a low-population state (and a few thousand votes can shift a few percentage points). I'm hoping for a miracle. It would probably be the upset of the decade. And if I hear another Democrat suggest that Collins or Snowe would or should switch parties, I think I might gouge my eyes out.    


[ Parent ]
Calling Obama-Collins voters requires (4.00 / 1)
great mental stamina. (I phone-banked one woman who was voting Collins and 'that young buck,' which is another story ...) And I wouldn't be surprised if Collins gets a third of Democrats--but I also won't be shocked if Allen wins in a squeaker. Well, okay--I'll be shocked. But not shocked and stunned.

This was winnable, though. I'm did the phone-banking, especially of the ticket-splitters, partly in the hopes that the Obama campaign would think, 'Well, if Obama stops in a Maine a few times to say, 'Vote for Allen--for me. I'll need a Democratic Senate to make real changes, and Collins voted with Bush 81% of the time," he'd actually make this a race.

I'm v. bummed that didn't happen. Allen ran a timid campaign, but the timidity seems to have trickled upward.

There's this proprietary feeling toward Collins (and, even more strongly, Snowe) in Maine. Her tag line is perfect. Our Senator. Completely vacuous, and expresses her appeal precisely.



[ Parent ]
I was hoping for an Obama or Clinton appearance (0.00 / 0)
I was hoping for an Obama appearance for obvious reasons (to peel away those ticket-splitting Dems). But I thought it was unlikely since the EV's are so safe. Then, I remembered that Allen was very good friends with the Clintons and wondered why they hadn't stumped for him.  

Do you think having partisan politicians stump for Allen would be a mistake given Maine's independent streak? That's the only explanation I can come up with. After all, Collins' ads call her independent, and Allen's website shies away from the word "Democrat."

People have been throwing out so many alternate scenarios (Allen really wants to be governor and runs in 2010, Collins joins the Cabinet and Baldacci appoints Allen to the Senate, Collins runs for governor to avenge her 1994 loss). I don't know if any of these are likely, but I'd love for Allen to somehow win this outright.


[ Parent ]
My personal theory is that Maine's (4.00 / 2)
independent streak is mostly myth. Not that I'm privy to any actual information, but I think if Allen had tried to redefine Collins (voting 80-something percent with Bush woulda made that pretty easy) months ago, he'd have had plenty of time to go positive by now. Sometimes I think we believe our own hype here: like it's the only place in the country where negative ads don't drive down favorability.

I really don't know. From my few days of calling, I think you've got many, many low information voters who'd be really easily swayed. I'd imagine that the Clintons have extremely high favorability here. I've no idea why they haven't come.

From where I'm sitting, looks like Allen just hesitated to play hardball against a well-regarded Senator.  


[ Parent ]
Thanks so much for your responses and perspective (4.00 / 1)
I feel so helpless all the way over here in Berkeley! This race is so frustrating, because Allen is one of the most progressive members of the House (and maybe the most progressive Senate candidate). He's the type of politician who should be benefitting from this Democratic wave. It shouldn't be this hard to get him elected.

My personal theory is that Maine's
independent streak is mostly myth.

I'd suspected this, if only because Democrats seem to have the edge everywhere but the Senate. I've also heard Mainers say a generic Republican would definitely lose to a generic Democrat. Mainers just love "their girls" Snowe and Collins. If only Collins stuck to her promise to only serve for 2 terms! Has anyone called her on that particular lie?

From where I'm sitting, looks like Allen just hesitated to play hardball against a well-regarded Senator.

This is what I've been hearing at dailykos and other places. I've also heard that it would be tricky for Allen to go negative on Collins without being called a sexist bully, because she's so popular, because "Mainers hate negative ads," etc. AND that his impressive education hurts him (that old "elitist" argument again). People also believe Allen's heart isn't in it, because he's so focused on his wife. I have no idea how Allen campaigned when he was running for the House (whether he's generally tenacious or more laidback). But his voting record more than recommends him for the Senate. He's been good for America and Maine.

[ Parent ]
People love Snowe. Collins, they just like. (4.00 / 2)
I haven't seen a single thing hitting Collins on her term-limit promise. I actually thought that should've been the first salvo: "If she won't keep her word on the little things, how can you trust her on the big ones? Breaks her word. Votes with Bush 81% of the time. Susan Collins is wrong for Maine." That sorta thing.

But I imagine they gamed all that out--and there's no better campaign job than Random Guy on the Internets.


[ Parent ]
Thanks for answering all of my questions (0.00 / 0)
A few hours after my last post, I saw this ad on Turn Maine Blue.
http://www.turnmaineblue.com/s...

I'll be hoping against hope for an Allen victory. I dread the thought of six more years of Susan Collins and her "moderate" posturing. If Collins only pulls off a slim victory, it could raise some eyebrows. If a popular incumbent can't win in a landslide (and Allen's indeed running a less than inspiring campaign), then no Republican is safe. There's some solace in that, I guess. On another note, Pingree sounds like she'd be a great progressive leader, not just a great progressive. I like what I've seen of her.


[ Parent ]
The only saving grace is (4.00 / 2)
that Collins will go whatever way the wind blows.  While it would be awesome to have Allen, I do think Collins will think hard about being one of the 41 votes on a number of items.  It was one thing when Bush was in charge and it was essentially split 50-50.  She couldn't be attacked as easily 'cause one vote usually didn't make the difference.  In the next Senate, whatever moderate repubs remain are gonna be VERY exposed if they try to stand in the way.

Want a progressive global warming novel, not a right wing rant? Go to www.edwardgtalbot.com for a free audio thriller.

[ Parent ]
Didn't we see this coming? (0.00 / 0)
With Republicns taking everything the US has meant or stood for and throwing it out the window, REAL Americans are turning to Democratic candidates to regain where we were as a country in 1999.

It's unnerving to see what they've done to our country in just 8 short years. Now, when Obama is elected, we have the hard job of turning it around.
-----------------------
Obama 2008
"Mad McCain" videos: http://tv1.com/playlists/show/11


I hope you're right, Matt... (0.00 / 0)

But I will be honest and tell you that, when I saw this ad on TV, after my blood stopped boiling (I too knew it meant that the Harvard degree angle wasn't working, but that he would play this card so blatantly was just plain scummy), my immediate belief was that Reichert was making one last play to culturally conservative union voters in the south end of the 8th CD, especially Machinists who hadn't voted yet because they were too stressed out from the strike at Boeing (which just got settled officially this evening).

I don't see it as a loser moment, though I hope it does mean that we're cleaning his clock so thoroughly in the north end (Bellevue, Mercer Island, perhaps Renton) that he has to make a final plea to his strongest geographic area of support to rally to his side.  That would be maybe Covington, definitely Auburn and all points south and south west from there in particular.



It truly is a sad day. (0.00 / 0)
It truly is a sad day when we can't observe the very nature of political freedom itself - voting on issues and not along party lines.  I've always considered myself a liberal and like every other voter, whether they're willing to admit it or not, I have my core issues that I would and will cross party lines for.  Labor happens to be one of them.

At a time when it is vital that every voice be heard I find any candidate's pro-labor status refreshing.  I applaud Ms. Spencer for being mature and intelligent enough to vote on an issue and not be peer pressured to vote along party lines.

Shakespeare said,

A rose by any other name would smell as sweet.
 It matters not what something is called but what it is.  Both Reichert and Ms. Spencer are pro-labor - something that, despite what the public may think, is becoming harder and harder to be in this day and age when corporate giants hold the golden ticket to the political arena.

As for you armchair political analysts leave Ms. Spencer alone and go out and vote.  Don't trash someone willing to stand up for their beliefs, even if you don't agree with them.  It is people like Reichert and Ms. Spencer that offer a wake-up call and bring about change.

As Barack Obama has said,

Change will not come if we wait for some other person or some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.  

Be the change, people.


[ Parent ]
I really like it (0.00 / 0)
when conservatives resort to their old buzz words because it makes them seem so dated and brings up associations to the Bushies. "Socialism" is my favorite. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not sure that many Americans are worried about socialists taking over these days. In fact when we hear about universal health care in "socialist" Europe, we're likely to feel envious. When it's implied that Medicare is socialism, seniors like myself say "who cares what they call it - I like it". I'm not sure that conservatism is defeated as some people are saying. I think it may be more a swing of the pendulum that will swing back the other way at some point, but in an election that is all about change, the old conservative scare words just don't cut it. I'm actually beginning to enjoy reading the political news! Elizabeth Dole's "godless" ad even seems to be causing some backlash against her in N. Carolina, but I'm not ready to feel confident about that one yet. Hoping for the best for the fine Darcy Burner.  






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