Presidential Forecast, 11/2: Two Days Left

by: Chris Bowers

Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 15:30


Electoral College: Obama 318, McCain 160 Toss-up 60 (270 to win, 269 to tie)
National popular vote: Obama 50.3%--44.0% McCain


Dark Blue (252): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (66): Obama +2.3%-+5.9%
White / Toss-up (60): Obama +2.2% to McCain +2.2%
Lean Red (29): McCain +2.3%-+5.9%
Dark Red (131): McCain +6.0% or more

Relevant States Chart
Polls 10/26-11/01
States not shown are further either direction
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin Polls Obama EVs
Obama Lock 154 154
New Jersey 15 53.7% 38.0% +15.7% 3 169
Iowa 7 54.0% 38.7% +15.3% 3 176
Oregon 7 54.8% 39.6% +15.2% 5 183
Washington 11 53.5% 39.0% +14.5% 2 194
Wisconsin 10 54.0% 40.5% +13.5% 2 204
Maine-AL 2 56.0% 43.0% +13.0% 1 206
Michigan 17 53.0% 40.2% +12.8% 5 223
Minnesota 10 53.0% 40.8% +12.2% 5 233
Maine-02 1 52.0% 41.0% +11.0% 1* 234
New Mexico 5 53.8% 43.3% +10.5% 4 239
New Hampshire 4 52.1% 41.9% +10.2% 7 243
Colorado 9 51.5% 44.5% +7.0% 4 252
Pennsylvania 21 50.3% 44.5% +5.8% 6 273
Nevada 5 48.5% 44.5% +4.0% 2 278
Virginia 13 49.8% 46.0% +3.8% 4 291
Florida 27 47.3% 44.8% +2.5% 4 318
Ohio 20 47.7% 45.7% +2.0% 3 338
North Carolina 15 47.6% 47.2% +0.4% 5 353
Indiana 11 46.8% 47.3% -0.5% 4 364
Missouri 11 47.3% 48.0% -0.7% 4 375
North Dakota 3 46.0% 47.0% -1.0% 1 378
Georgia 15 46.0% 49.0% -3.0% 3 393
Arizona 10 45.8% 49.3% -3.5% 5 403
Montana 3 45.3% 49.0% -3.7% 3 406
Nebraska-02 1 44.0% 48.0% -4.0% 1* 407
Lock McCain 129 538
* = Poll or polls more than one week old

Analysis and methodology in the extended entry.

Chris Bowers :: Presidential Forecast, 11/2: Two Days Left
Methodology
The methodology for the forecast is simple and straightforward.
  1. For each state, all polls with the entirety of their interviews conducted within the last 8 7 days from publication of the forecast are included in the averages. My rationale for this methodology is based on research I conducted back in June, which you can read here. There are some necessary exceptions to this rule.
  2. In the event that no polls were taken within the past week, the most recent polls are used. "Most recent" is determined by the mid-point in the dates of the polls. For example, a poll taken from 9/15-9/17 has a mid-pint of 9/16. In the event that more than one poll shares the most recent mid-point (within 0.5), all polls with that mid-point are included in the average.
  3. The second exception comes with polling firms that have conducted more than one poll in a state over the last 8 7 days. Every polling firm only has one poll per average.
  4. All telephone polls are included with equal weight. However, no Internet polls are used.
Analysis
Obama cruises to 252 electoral votes, and, given the volume of early voting in Nevada, really to 257 electoral votes. From that point, all he needs to do is avoid being swept in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. He currently holds leads in all three, ranging from a high of 5.5% 5.8% in Pennsylvania to a low of 0.4% in North Carolina. Victory certainly seems to be almost assured.

My best bet is that Obama's final electoral total will be either 338 or 353, depending on whether he wins North Carolina or not. I think that Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota will just barely slip toward McCain, with Arizona, Georgia and Montana going for McCain by somewhat wider margins. However, the next two days of polling could convince me otherwise, and I won't be making any final predictions until early morning, November 4th.

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Presidential Forecast, 11/2: Two Days Left | 31 comments
certainly not as nice a map as we have been seeing... (4.00 / 1)
but good enough.  

i'm looking forward to the PPP polls tonight.  

at this point, i'm mostly looking at Obama's numbers, rather than the margins.  if he is over 50 percent (as he has continued to be in many of the most recent polls), i'm not worried a bit.  

I think McCain is going to win. (0.00 / 0)
That is where I am standing here. I think we are under-weighting these late breaking polls, all of which show sharp movement toward McCain, especially in PA, VA, NC, MO and FL.

Virginia was our firewall - now it's back up for grabs. Pennslyvania was in the banks - now it's back up for grabs. Florida was trending hard Obama - now it's back up for grabs. I could go on and on.

Queue the "OMG TROLL".

Which part is snark? (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
If so (4.00 / 5)
Go to Intrade.com.

For every $12 you want to put down on McCain, you'll get $100 back.

[ Parent ]
Awwww (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
I don't think you're a troll. (2.00 / 2)
I think you're a moron.  Movement from a double digit lead to a 5-7 point lead in PA and VA does not a loss make.  I hope you come back and apologize for wasting our time with your nonsense.
[ Parent ]
Very scientific of you (4.00 / 1)
What is your basis for assuming that McCain's support will rise linearly while Obama's will also decrease linearly, especially when Obama is over 50% in most state polls while McCain is significantly below that?  Sorry, but your gut is wrong on this one.
[ Parent ]
It's a LOT easier to get to 48% than 50% +1 (0.00 / 0)
PA is just not going to vote for McCain. Bush couldn't win it when he won the national vote by 2.4% (2 1/2 million votes in 2004). Kerry won by 2% then which gives PA about a 4% Democratic lean.

Does anybody really see McCain winning the national vote by 4%? Or assuming that you think McCain's constant cruising the state will ultimately matter, does anybody think McCain will suddenly move from 5% down into a tie on election day?

That assumes that McCain ties Obama in the national vote, and by force of constant campaigning in PA manages to overcome the Democratic registration edge of 4%.

That STILL leaves McCain having to overcome Obama's GOTV efforts which are still greater than McCain has going for him.

A late surge in PA? Sure. He might even come within 2%, but what makes anybody think he will ultimately win?

Nothing. Not one piece of evidence!

Republicans are desperate to avoid a liberal president, but Democrats are equally determined NOT to have another 4 years for George Bush!  

[ Parent ]
I'm GREEDY (4.00 / 2)
I want more, MOre, MOREEEEE EVS!

And you know what is going to be annoying if Obama wins by the relatively modest number predicted here? Then we get to here the MSM question afterwards why Obama didn't crush McCain by a bigger margin.

Ah, well, I guess that's a pretty small annoyance in the larger scheme of things.

I'm greedy too... (4.00 / 1)
But I want more SENATE seats, more HOUSE seats, and I want more STATE LEGISLATIVE seats!  I want us to be in control of as many legislatures as possible going into 2010, and then nab a few more that year after the census.

Controlling the legislatures for reapportionment.  That's big, baby, big.

War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength; McCain/Palin 2008

[ Parent ]
I hope the confidence in PA (0.00 / 0)
expressed by Bowers, Stoller, Atrios and BooMan is justified. It is really becoming a firewall state, and these recent Republican-friendly pollsters have not made it look easy. Then again, that might put some more fire under GOTV efforts that were at risk of becoming complacent.

I think Obama has led in the last 156 national polls, so for him to actually win on Tuesday would be perhaps the biggest upset ever. The entire polling industry would have egg on its face, and the Bradley effect would suddenly be called the Obama effect. But that would defy reality to the point where I just don't see it happening. Obama may win this thing closely if OH and FL go to McCain, but he should (knock on wood) pull it off. If he wins by one EV I'll be happy.

incoming wave! (0.00 / 0)
I'm taking the over.
Still think no lag? (4.00 / 3)
So, earlier this week we saw a (slight) narrowing of the national polls... Nothing to really worry about, but still a narrowing.  But the state polls were showing that Obama had 270 EVs in states where he led by a minimum of 8 points.  I said then that the state polls would narrow on the weekend, and here we are... State polls have narrowed on the weekend.

There was a slight uptick in support for Obama in the nationals over the last few days, and maybe a slight downtick today (not sure what to make of it), but if the ACTUAL polls on Tuesday follow what we're seeing in the nationals over the last couple days, I think we'll be in really good shape.

Again, not sure what to make of the slight narrowing today... could be for any number of reasons, and in all likelihood it doesn't really mean anything.  We'll see what happens Tuesday I guess.

I noticed this too (0.00 / 0)
In fact, it's been twice now, in the last two weeks, that we've seen movement towards McCain in the nationals, everyone is all "but there isn't movement in states, so nyah nyah", only to have movement in the states towards McCain show up almost immediately afterwards.

Still - the movement in PA has been FAST, and now PA is within range of electoral hijinks, which does make me very nervous - rightleaning polls or no.

[ Parent ]
McCain was underperforming... (4.00 / 1)
He wasn't going to be under 40% in the final tally... sorry.

PA was always going to narrow a bit.  Obama will still win it by 7-8 points is my guess.  Even so, every recent poll of the state still has Obama over 50%.

[ Parent ]
You realise 4-7 points in PA is close to half a million votes right? (4.00 / 1)
 Very difficult to steal any state with those margins.
[ Parent ]
well (0.00 / 0)
The tightening in Pennsylvania is unfortunate. Although we are ahead in Pennsylvania, what is not comforting is the fact that we haven't yet seen where McCain's momentum in PA will stall out. The barrage of Rev. Wright ads in PA will certainly not help matters. It would be nice if Obama had planned at least one more visit in that state. I think it's almost impossible to see how McCain wins the popular vote on Tuesday. If he does win the electoral vote, it'll be by a very small margin. If Obama wins, it could be a landslide or by a small margin, but I think the margin in Virginia and Pennsylvania will be close.
The latest Rasmussen suggests it has levelled off (4.00 / 1)
It was 4 on Thursday, 6 today.
[ Parent ]
true (0.00 / 0)
Yea that's a good sign. It'll be interesting to see what Morning Call tracker is when it comes out later tonight. I wonder if Bowers will tell people not to worry about Pennsylvania like he was doing a week ago.  
[ Parent ]
To trust or not trust in the polling? (0.00 / 0)
I've been assuming we are going to see a "silent majority"/Bradley effect/Republican supppression tactics on the polls - not in regards to Obama's plus numbers, but in regards to the undecideds.

This is why I've hoped to keep a +5 lead in the polls, which mainly keeps you out of the margin of error.

As was pointed out on a previous thread - the one where Chris Bowers refutes the lean - in certain states, this does show up, such as the difference between the pre-polling Florida, and the actual result in Florida.

Now - I pray to God I am simply a traumatized troll - but 4 of the swing states - in which I now count Pennsylvania - are at a minimum 4 off their average polling highs - Penn, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada.

Those 4 were IN THE BANK a week ago.  Now there's been a troubling withdrawal, leaving those states on the - very unlikely - risk of a McCain insolvency..

... (0.00 / 0)
One thing I don't understand is why everyone is convinced that the early voting in North Carolina is so great for Obama. So far, african-americans make up 26% of the early vote in north carolina. Well, back in 2004, african-americans also made up 26% of the vote...And while more democrats are voting in North Carolina than Repubs, most of these dems are older democratic voters. The younger voters have been underperforming in the early vote in north carolina.

You can't make big judgements based on party ID, just look at West Virginia where Dems are out-voting Reps in early vote by a 25% margin, but do we really think Obama is gonna win WV?

[ Parent ]
Are you basing the 26% in 2004 off the exit poll? (4.00 / 1)
[ Parent ]
nope (0.00 / 0)
I think you are wrong.  Look at the exit poll below.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/52...
[ Parent ]
nevermind (0.00 / 0)
nevermind BHL, I get what you are saying now...
[ Parent ]
Okey doke (0.00 / 0)
No problem :)
[ Parent ]
Nope (0.00 / 0)
I know what the exit poll said but it and you are wrong. Read the PPP link. They are based in NC. It has been discussed to death all cycle.
[ Parent ]
Just as much chance of a reverse-Bradley (0.00 / 0)
Lots of these polls of states with large AA populations are undersampling those voters.
[ Parent ]
My only (slight) concern... (4.00 / 1)
Is the very late-playing of the Wright card, which I've predicted since... I dunno, June.  It seemed pretty obvious that they would wait to play it... let people forget about it one more time and then "surprise" them again with it in the final days of the campaign... and that's exactly what has happened now.

I don't think it'll be enough, but it's probably shaved 1-2 points off of what Obama's likely margins would've been in VA and PA.

My only concern (4.00 / 5)
Is what some people here will be concerned about after Tuesday.  Honestly, it boggles my mind as to how some are so disproportionately concerned about polls that show us with solid leads in every state that counts.  People would be crying tears of joy if they were read today's poll results way back at the height of McCain's convention bounce.  All of the urban myths of vote stealing, the supposed Bradley effect, etc. have robbed people of their ability to accurately assess information.
A voice of sanity n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
sticking to my prediction (0.00 / 0)
I stand by my prediction that Obama will get 55%.

393 EV, 55%-44%.

The truth about Saxby Chambliss

Presidential Forecast, 11/2: Two Days Left | 31 comments
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