Deep Red Swing State--In Time, That Is

by: Paul Rosenberg

Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 17:15


Here's another way of looking at how deep red the different swing states are that we're looking to take this cycle--a look at how seldom they've gone Democratic. (The "LAST" column records the last time they went Democratic pre-1960.)

This was inspired by a little back-and-forth about Montana vs. North Dakota.  Although Montana extends the geographic reach of blue farther georgraphically, the fact that Clinton won there as recently as 1992 means it's not really that deep red in time.  At least not compared to North Dakota, which has only gone Democratic once since Harry Truman won there in 1948.  Make of this what you will in the comments.

(Paul's excellent swing state table can be found in the extended entry--Chris
Paul Rosenberg :: Deep Red Swing State--In Time, That Is
2008 Swing States-When They Voted Dem
State200420001996199219881984198019761972196819641960LAST
Colorado---X------X-1948
Iowa-XXXX-----X-1948
Indiana----------X-1948
Florida--X----X--X-1948
Georgia---X--XX---X1956
Nevada--XX------XX1948
NM-XXX------XX1948
NC-------X--XX1956
ND----------X-1936
Missouri--XX---X--XX1956
Montana---X------X-1948
Ohio       --XX---X--X-1948
Virginia----------X-1948

Bottom line: the last time all these states voted Democratic was 1936, FDR's landslide followup to the realigning election of 1932.

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Deep Red Swing State--In Time, That Is | 7 comments
Georgia (0.00 / 0)
Um - One correction. JEC took that state for the DEMS by a mere 34% in 1976.
Small Correction...Georgia (0.00 / 0)
Went for Carter in 1976 and 1980
Fixed (4.00 / 1)
Not so much that I didn't know it, more that I was working in haste, and didn't have Georgia on my original list.

Gosh, it's nice to think of winning Georgia, isn't it?

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

[ Parent ]
Wow, nice presentation, Paul (4.00 / 1)
Virginia really jumps out at me.  The idea we might actually take it for the first time since 1964 is made all the more striking by the table.

Also, with this presentation the concept of winning in Iowa and New Mexico seems so reasonable (2004 seems the aberration).

Now all we have to do is pull it all off...

And yet (4.00 / 1)
how long has North Dakota had two Democratic Senators?

sTiVo's rule: Just because YOU "wouldn't put it past 'em" doesn't prove that THEY did it.
Many states (0.00 / 0)
Like North Dakota and Montana traditionally vote split tickets with repubs for president and dems for U.S. Senate.

Why, I don't know, and I live there!

[ Parent ]
Rows and Columns (0.00 / 0)
Great chart, Paul.

Actually, the part of the chart that fascinates me the most is the column of dashes for 1968. That was a close and bitter election where all of the states went against Humphrey. If we can pick off half of the swing states on this list we will have at least a symbolic ending of the Nixon coalition. Sweet!

Deep Red Swing State--In Time, That Is | 7 comments
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