Dark Blue (273): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (18): Obama +2.3%-+5.9%
White / Toss-up (87): Obama +2.2% to McCain +2.2%
Lean Red (28): McCain +2.3%-+5.9%
Dark Red (132): McCain +6.0% or more
Relevant States Chart
Polls 10/28-11/02 States not shown are further either direction
Methodology All of the polls included in the averages had all of their interviews conducted in the final seven days of the campaign (October 28th forward). Campaign-funded and non-random Internet polls are not included. Every pollster only has one poll per average, and all polls are weighted equally. In the event two polls were not taken in the final seven days of the campaign, the two most recent polls were used instead. No polls conducted before October 13th are ever used, no matter what. The states listed were either swing states in 2004, or are swing states now. My rationale for this methodology is based on research I conducted back in June, which you can read here.
Analysis After brief periods of improvement, Florida and Ohio once again fall well behind the other swing states in terms of their shift from 2004. This might have something to do with the Mason-Dixon polls, which do indeed tilt Republican, but it might also represent real tightening in those two states. It doesn't effect the outcome, since Obama is a lock in Colorado and Pennsylvania, but it would make Obama's victory a bit less impressive and a bit less satisfying. In a rare moment of optimism, right now I am prone the believe that it is just a "house" polling effect.
Except in the few states--indicated by an *--that are still using older polls, no more polls will be removed from the forecast, only added. (Polls can be replaced if one polling organization releases a new survey that supercedes a previous one.) The final numbers are hardening, and there just doesn't seem to be any way that McCain catch up in Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, or a single Kerry state (or Nevada and Virginia, too). Obama has enough to win, and even if it might not be as huge as some had--or still--hope for, it still appears to be in the bag.
STATE BLOGS
