In my nearly final presidential forecast, I give the following breakdown:
- Obama at 338 minimum: Obama wins the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia.
- Three toss-ups: Missouri, North Carolina and North Dakota are the only remaining toss-ups, in that polls yet to be released could still flip those states.
- Four close states for McCain: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana and Montana are projected for McCain, even though there is still a small chance for Obama to win one or more of those four states.
This projection comes from looking at the simple mean of polling conducted during the final week of the campaign. I stand by this methodology despite it's simplicity, and even to a certain extent because of it's simplicity. I have come to believe that forecasting close (within single digits), statewide, general elections accurately is not the sole province of statistical wizards and those who wish to argue with polls. Instead, I believe it is something anyone can do as long as they have an Internet connection, and are willing to not argue with the polls they don't like. As long as you have the courage to look at all of the recent polls and avoid adding any special sauce of your own, then you can project close (within single digits), statewide, general elections as accurately as any "professional" forecaster around.
On November 5th, we will know if I am correct. However, if I turn out to be wrong, and Obama scores a larger than expected victory of around 400 electoral votes, the reason will be due to cell-phone only households. Within the last twenty-four hours, both fivethirtyeight.com and Pollster.com have released studies indicating that Obama leads by about 4% more in polls that include cell-phone only households, than he does in polls that do not. A shift of that magnitude has the potential not only to push all three of the toss-up states to Obama, but also all four of the narrow McCain states. This could give Obama up to 406 electoral votes, and a national popular vote victory of 9-10%.
Now, I'm sticking with the "use all polls" and "don't argue with polls" philosophy, and instead projecting Obama to win by around 7% nationally and to pull in between 340-360 electoral votes. With only one day left, I will not abandon my old mantra, "the truth is always in between." However, this cell-phone only discrepancy should still give hope to those of you working in those four "Lean McCain" states. Keep in mind that there could also be a discrepancy in the other direction due to a lingering "Bradley effect," that might push Obama's victory down to around 5% or so, and which could still tip Florida and / or Ohio toward McCain. There is no circumstance I can forsee where Obama drops below 291 electoral votes, meaning the Kerry states plus Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia.
I am forecasting 7% and 340-360, but I can see reasonable people pegging the range anywhere from 4% to 10%, with electoral votes ranging from 291-406 (or even 407, with Nebraska-02). What is your final prediction? Let's lay it on the line in the comments. |
