"Tightening" in Pennsylvania meaningless

by: Cramer

Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 19:09


The perceived tightening of Pennsylvania polls seems to be due entirely to an increase in McCain support - undecideds coming home to McCain. But since Obama's support is above 50%, for McCain to pick off Pennsylvania would require a decrease in support for Obama - and there's no evidence of that. Obama's support has held steady, with the Pollster trend at 52% and only a couple polls coming in below 50%.

So concern over Pennsylvania tightening is misplaced - the polls actually show no reason for concern. The only cause for worry would be a pretty severe Bradley effect - people telling pollsters that they are voting for Obama when they actually will vote for McCain.

Cramer :: "Tightening" in Pennsylvania meaningless

Tags: , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
USER MENU

Open Left Campaigns

SEARCH

   

Advanced Search

QUICK HITS
STATE BLOGS
Powered by: SoapBlox