My prediction: O 53-M 46 (0.00 / 0)

375-164 Electoral Vote.

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by: climateguy84 @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 00:42:43 AM UTC

46M-53O (0.00 / 0)

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by: alarabi @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 00:43:48 AM UTC

cellphones- What about you? (0.00 / 0)

Right now I am not buying the Cell phone effect because it sounds too good to be true. Yet, I was thinking me and all of my friends, ALL OF THEM WITHOUT EXCEPTION, are cell phone only people.

Still I remember the incumbent rule in 2004, so I can't get my hopes up too much. A win is a win, yet I'd love to see Gallup-like numbers tomorrow!  

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by: alarabi @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 01:11:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

do i hear (0.00 / 0)

i think i hear, no, wait a minute, i think, yes it could, no wait, i think, yes, i think, i hear it, it is, its the fat lady starting to, to sing, yes i hear it now, its hard to hear but its really her, shes starting to sing, i have to strain but its really her and shes singing, and those are the sounds i have been waiting to hear, and i am willing to wait until i can hear her drown out all the darkness we have lived through during the dark years of goper rule, fat lady, welcome aboard and sing to your hearts content.  

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by: pc @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 00:44:22 AM UTC

Two possibilities (4.00 / 1)

1) It will be roughly the consensus of the polling — 7-8  points. That's as good a guess as any.

2) Because there is a clear discrepancy between polls that get cell-phone-only data and those that don't, it will be closer to the consensus of the polls that include cell-phones, which brushes into double-digit landslide territory.

The rational part of me is split between these two outcomes, but my intuition is betting the first is closer to the truth.

Other issues...

I don't think the Bradly effect is going to be a factor; studies of recent elections seem to discount its existence. I don't expect turnout to radically alter what we're seeing in the polls.

Everybody talks about how turnout can add X points, or that Bush's huge turnout machine mattered so much in 2000 and 2004, but the polls were still pretty close to the end result. It seems to two parties' turnout machines cancel each-other out. I expect African American turnout to be huge, but don't expect young voter turnout to increase beyond what the electorate as a whole does. That's pretty much what we got in 2004 when young voters were supposed to pull off some miracle then didn't; they increased, but not much beyond what the whole electorate did.

There is some history of candidates under-performing when they have large leads, but I'm not expecting that; in the primaries, Obama tended to actually over-perform in states that he had big polling leads in.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

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by: fwiffo @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 00:48:23 AM UTC

Hmm... (0.00 / 0)

Looking at turnout projections of 130-140 million... I would really like a popular vote margin of a nice round 10 million. That would be sweet.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

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by: fwiffo @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 00:58:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Obama by a huge margin (0.00 / 0)

I'm taking the cellphone-inclusive poll average and knocking on a little extra for GOTV.

Obama by 10+, 54-43.5 with 2 going to Barr and 0.5 to everybody else.

EVs: Obama with 390+.

Of course if you were going to let me have a range, I'd get a little more conservative -- say, 370-399.)

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by: Matt H @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 01:15:18 AM UTC