My Final Election Forecasts

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 22:30


This is it. My final forecasts for 2008:

President
Electoral Vote: Obama 338--200 McCain
National Popular Vote: Obama 53.1%--45.4% McCain



You can see my final percentage projections here. I decided to go with Obama in North Carolina even though the state was exactly tied. The reason is that most of Obama's vote is already in, while McCain still has to get his voters to the polls. That's enough of a tie-breaker for me. If a final North Carolina poll comes out showing McCain ahead by any margin at all, I reserve the right to change my forecast for the state (Update: ARG poll of the state shows Obama up 1% in NC. It functions as a tie-breaker. Update 2: Zogby final tracking poll moves 2 points to McCain, so that breaks the tie in the other direction). Oh--and the national popular vote is just a guess based on the Pollster.com national average. I'm only banking my methodology on the state results.

Senate

  • Democratic Pickups: Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon and Virginia.
  • Run-off in Georgia where we fight for the Employee Free Choice Act
  • Extremely narrow loss in Minnesota
  • If I have some free time tomorrow, I'll spruce up the final percentages, and post them here. More likely, I will finish them after the election, to test how well my methodology worked.
House
Best Guess: Democratic Pickup of 24 seats, for a total of D 260-175 R in the House.
Guess Range: 21-27
Read the entire final forecast here

Well, that was a fun year of forecasting elections. What have you got for your final numbers?

Chris Bowers :: My Final Election Forecasts

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My Final Election Forecasts | 37 comments
Haven't the last few MN polls... (0.00 / 0)
Shown a lead for Franken?
How NC may play out (0.00 / 0)
Not only is "most of Obama's vote . . . already in, while McCain still has to get his voters to the polls," but the weather forecast calls for rain tomorrow which could further suppress the election day turnout.

Save Our Schools! March & National Call to Action, July 28-31, 2011 in Washington, DC: http://www.saveourschoolsmarch...
As is my wont (0.00 / 0)
I'm going optimistic.

Obama 54
McCain 43.5

Obama 390 EVs

Senate +8
House +30  

Oddly enough (0.00 / 0)
Exactly the same as yours - 353-175 Obama.  I see the PV a bit closer - 51.8-45.7.  7 seats in the Senate, 28 in the House.
I'll buy your prediction (0.00 / 0)
Sounds about right
My Predictions (cross-posted on MyDD) (0.00 / 0)
Make sure you track this contest... I'm curious who will be closest...

My HEART says 538-0 for Obama... but that won't happen.

So my real predictions:

Pres:   364 Obama - McSame - 174
All Kerry States plus Florida, NC, VA, OH, IA, NM, CO, NV and IN (but you could see MO instead).   52-46 Obama... 2% other.

Senate:  +8

House: +26

Governors: +2

OK, I've rethunk mine (4.00 / 1)
Here it is copied from my official DailyKos guess:

   * 58 Democratic Senate seats
   * 40 Republican Senate seats
   * 262 Democratic House seats
   * 173 Republican House seats
   * 382 Obama Electoral Votes
   * 156 McCain Electoral Votes
   * 53.2 Obama Popular Vote Percentage
   * 44.5 McCain Popular Vote Percentage

I'm picking both Al Franken and Jim Martin to win on Obama's coattails, in Martin's case, I'm actually predicting him to avoid a run-off. Obama wins Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, North Carolina, Missouri, Georgia and either North Dakota or Montana. He'll lose a squeaker in Indiana.

The popular vote margin of 8.7 points is bold, but I'm guessing the polls that include cell-phone-only respondents are closer to reality. It's just over a point off the national polling average, which is not unreasonable compared to other recent elections. Several of the national polls are showing Obama picking up 52 or 53% of the vote, and he'll get at least a few undecideds.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

hey (0.00 / 0)
we may be competing for that computer. I have same EV and similar PV line as you, but 59 senate and 267 house.
[ Parent ]
competition for the compy (0.00 / 0)
More competition:

58 Dem Senate
40 Rep Senate
254 Dem House
181 Rep House

367 Obama EVs
171 McCain EVs

53.8 O Pop Vote (538, get it?)
44.8 M Pop Vote

[ Parent ]
373 - 165 (0.00 / 0)
Kerry plus Iowa, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado, Montana

sweep wave rock!

McCain wins Nevada and Alaska

Networks call it or make it so obvious the Obama has won at about 8:15 that it effects voting on the west coast. Turnout is depressed for both parties west of the rockies.

Kratovil new dem representative from Maryland eastern shore (MD-01)

I doubt very little Obama vote .. (0.00 / 0)
will be depressed on the West Coast .. Obama will blow past GWB's winning total of 4 years ago
[ Parent ]
Realistically... (4.00 / 1)
I had in my mind the exact same forecast for the presidential: Obama 353 EV, popular vote 53-46, and I have the same justification as Chris for thinking Obama will win NC (a vote already in is worth somewhat more than a vote yet to be cast).  

My gut forecast, however, is that Obama will in addition win razor-thin victories in Georgia and Missouri, giving him 379 EV and a slightly bigger 54-45 win. Missouri is currently basically tied and I expect a big turnout in StL to win it for Obama. Georgia is very close but I just think that Obama has so many votes already banked that the demoralized R's are not going to make up the gap tomorrow.

Senate: same as Chris, except Franken pulls it out. I expect Martin to win a plurality in GA but not enough to avoid the runoff.

In the House, I don't have nearly the expertise to make a knowledgeable guess, but I expect we'll be near the top of Chris's range as the enthusiasm gap pushes some of the marginal Dems over the line. Call it +27 then.

I expect Franken to win tomorrow .. (0.00 / 0)
on Obama's coat tails ... and Hillary has spent the past few days in Minnesota(or at the least ... campaigned a few times with Al the past few days) .. anyone know if the Wellstones have been helping Al out?
[ Parent ]
David Wellstone appeared at an event a few days ago (0.00 / 0)
and Barack Obama called a local radio show to make the case for Franken.
http://blog.alfranken.com/

To any Minnesotans out there, is the Don Shelby Show a big deal? Does it get a lot of listeners?

[ Parent ]
Prediction from NZ (4.00 / 1)
Electoral College: 364 EVs, including MO. Popular vote: 53.5%, 44.5%, others 2%. I'm giving more weight to the cell-phone effect and the ground-game differential.

Senate: 7 + Franken as well, and the Martin after the run-off in Georgia. Eventually the real story in MN will get out, despite the efforts of the local media to limit the damage.

House: 31, range 26 to 35.

This has been an amazing election to watch thanks to you people. Wishing you all the very best for tomorrow, and especially for the tough time you will confront putting the economy right. You will have a leader who has already demonstrated greatness, and will have the goodwill of the world.

Steelers whoopin' the Redskins.... (0.00 / 0)
I never thought I'd ever in my life root for the Steelers, but, I hope this is a preview to tomorrow...  'cos they are whoopin' the skins!

For those who don't know... When the Redskins lose, the party in power loses the presidency... of course, that was broken in 2004 ('cos the election was stolen)...

So, may the ghost of Paul Brown forgive me, but go Steelers!

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

I'm a optimist (0.00 / 0)
I got them all here

Same as you on presidential but I put MO for Obama. Same on Senate but I have Franken winning narrowly and my House projections are about 10 higher then yours. My prediction was +36 including three loses of Democratic seats. Probably too optimistic though.

I hope I win a MacBook from Markos or Babka from David. Have a contest next time, prizes make everything so much more fun ;)

Off to catch some final sleep before a long, way to early day tomorow.  

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power

Damn. (4.00 / 1)
I hope you're wrong, Chris. I just bet someone a beer today that Obama would break 360.
Haha ... (4.00 / 1)
On all my guesses .. I am guessing 388 for Obama .. I am putting faith in his ground game .. that it is good or even better than advertised(especially if the stories Joe Klein is telling are true .. that there are places that people have had to wait in line to phone bank .. how f-ckin nuts is that?!?!?)
[ Parent ]
Good numbers, Chris .. but... (0.00 / 0)
I'm adding GA, IN, MO, and MT. Go for the gusto, I say!
rallies (4.00 / 1)
Tonight, Obama gets 90,000 in Manassass, Virginia while McCain rallies 500 in Henderson Nevada...
I'll Play (0.00 / 0)
Given the tightening of the polls in several red states and the early vote numbers, I think the final popular vote numbers will be on the higher side of the 5-11% spread we're seeing in the final polling. I think Obama wins the popular vote by 8.5% to 9%, and because of that I think a lot of the states that are close will tip Obama. Three states in particular, will shock the world.

Obama 381
McCain 157

Obama carries all the Kerry states plus Nevada, Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.

I also think Obama falls an eyelash short in Georgia (Martin too) due to the shennanigans of the Georgia SOS. Hopefully, that turns into the impetus for passing some real federal voting regulations with teeth so we can have an electoral process befitting the world's oldest and most powerful democracy.

I'm sticking by my predicition of 57+2 Indies=59 for the Democrats in the Senate. Franken gets in on Obama's coattails. Martin goes to a runoff and gets beat by Saxby in four weeks.

I'm revising my House predicition to reflect some Obama coattailage. My original prediction was a net gain of 26 seats for the Democrats. I think Obama's coattails compell me to add 10% to that, so 29 seats net gain in the House. Probably the one open seat in rural New Mexico and a couple of others.

I bet .. (0.00 / 0)
if Martin gets to a runoff .. he'll win .. as the Democrats pull out all the big guns to campaign for him .. as Republicans will be demoralized
[ Parent ]
I'm thinking MO might flip. (0.00 / 0)
Obama's outperformed there before, and his focus in the rural areas may contribute to a McCaskill-like victory. Would be gravy, certainly.
Way back at the beginning (0.00 / 0)
of the primaries, I said the Democrats would pick up 30 seats in the House, 10 in the Senate, and the Presidency.  There was a long period when that projection seemed way high, but tonight it only seems a little high, so I'm sticking with it. Obama over 350 EV, 8-10% popular vote.
Prediction (0.00 / 0)
378 EVs, 54% of popular vote, Senate 57-41-2, House 286-167 (+32)
Pretty similar to yours (0.00 / 0)
My electoral vote map is identical to yours: 353 - 185
Popular vote:  51.8 Obama - 46.5 McCain

Senate:
Democratic Pickups: Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, Virginia, Minnesota
Run-off in Georgia

House:
260 - 175

John McCain <3 lobbyists

INDIANA (0.00 / 0)
Add Indiana to Obama's haul.  I just want him to win really, but it would feel really damn good to live in a state that voted for him.  And honestly he deserves it.  By my observations he kicked McCain's ass in every area of campaigning here.  
322 EV's (4.00 / 1)
Changes from your map:

Obama loses NC
Obama Wins either Indiana or Missouri (they both have the same EV total).  I found it interesting that McCain went to Indiana today.  

And then there is Florida.  In 5 hours I am goung to get up as part of the legal protection team and spend 13 hours at a polling station on behalf of Obama.  I will be crushed if we lose Florida.  And yet in the end I think we will lose the state.  Maybe it's the 80's Democrat in me, but I just think we won't get over the top.

Popular vote: Obama 52.1, McCain 46.2

Re the Senate: I heard that over 45 K had already voted in Alaska, most had completed their ballots before the guilty verdict.  Can't believe he will win, but stranger things have happened.

I think Franken wins in Minn - the rest I agree with.  

I think Obama's more likely to win NC (4.00 / 1)
than IN or MO. As it happens, I picked the exact same EV map as Chris.

I overcame my emotional scars from the 80s to predict Obama winning Florida. His early voting lead is a lot to overcome, even taking into account despicable Republican voter suppression.

Thanks for your volunteer work!

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
Sounds very reasonable to me (0.00 / 0)
Refreshing to see that not all here get carried away by (understandable) enthusiasm. Good for you! It's certainly more satisfying to see Obama exceed one's expectations, than to see him miss the personal bet of, say, 388.

Still, I'm not only concerned about FL,but of OH, too. Wouldn't at all be surprised if the rethuglican efforts to disenfranchise voters there pay off once again.
:-/

[ Parent ]
My Predictions (0.00 / 0)
57 Democratic Senate seats
40 Republican Senate seats
262 Democratic House seats
173 Republican House seats
353 Obama Electoral Votes
185 McCain Electoral Votes
51.9 Obama Popular Vote Percentage
45.8 McCain Popular Vote Percentage

I was calling into Missouri and people were having problems with getting voter IDs.  Indiana polls close at 6pm.  Both to McCain.  NC, OH and FL to Obama based on enthusiasm.

Franken wins (I hope) and Martin in runoff.

I have a higher third party vote than others because there are people who can't vote for Obama and won't vote for McCain.

McCain on the minimum wage

It's scary how close my predictions are to yours (0.00 / 0)
I have the exact same Senate picture (with Martin winning the runoff), same EV picture plus Indiana and Missouri for Obama, popular vote with a 9-point spread instead of your 7-point spread (and the same amount for third-party candidates), and 25 House pickups instead of your 24 (I actually called the individual seats as well).

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
And Zogby gives McCain a tiny .4 lead... (0.00 / 0)
I guess 1 point beats .4. ;)
sticking by old predictions (0.00 / 0)
393 EVs, 55%-44%.

9 pick-ups in Senate, 28 pick-ups in House.

The truth about Saxby Chambliss

quit reading my mind! (4.00 / 1)
I predicted the exactly same electoral college outcome at the Daily Kos contest, plus I predicted 7 Senate pickups and a narrow loss in Minnesota.

I think I predicted a net gain of 26 House seats rather than 24, though--I have to go check.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

O 365/M 179 EV; 57Dem senate; 263 Dem House; 51.9%/46.2% (0.00 / 0)
I think Obama will nab Montana; that's my only difference from your map.  Hopefully I'm the only one who thinks that and I win the Apple macbook on kos!!!!
My Final Election Forecasts | 37 comments
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