Presidential Returns, Thread #1

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 18:47


National Popular Vote (11% Reporting): Obama 50%-40% McCain

Electoral College
Obama 264--147 McCain


Swing State Returns
All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.
State Reporting Obama% McCain% EVs
Indiana 52% 48% 51% 11
Florida 41% 51% 48% 27
Virginia 45% 46% 54% 13
N. Carolina 14% 55% 45% 15
Ohio 550K 64%% 35%% 20
Missouri 8 p.m. --% --% 11
N. Dakota 8 p.m. --% --% 3
Arizona 9 p.m. --% --% 10
Colorado 9 p.m. --% --% 9
Montana 10 p.m. --% --% 3
Nevada 10 p.m. --% --% 3

Update 8--McCain wins Georgia: Damn. Also, I'm starting a new presidential thread.

Update 7--Obama wins Pennsylvania!: MSNBC calls Pennsylvania for Obama! Map will be updated shortly.

Update 6: Missouri and Pennsylvania exits: Pennsylvania shows Obama by 10% and Missouri shows Obama by 8%.

Update 5: Obama up 7% in Ohio exit poll: Check it out here.

Update 4: Cities tend to report late: Remember, outside of Pennsylvania, cities tend to report last. So, even though Obama is trailing in some of these early returns, his big precincts haven't come in yet.

Update 3: North Carolina exit poll: Obama leading in the North Carolina exit poll 51.4%-47.6% according to the gender crosstabs. All of these exit poll estimates are according to the exit polls crosstabs, btw.

Update 2: Some exit polls: Exit polls for Georgia (McCain winning by 2%), Indiana (Obama winning by 6%), and Virginia (Obama winning by 9%).

Update 1: On The Early Calls: As I wrote earlier today, twice, I am calling all states that were more than 10% in the polls before the election. No state polling will be wrong by that much. It ain't gonna happen. I stand by my early calls. It starts 243-132.
Chris Bowers :: Presidential Returns, Thread #1

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Presidential Returns, Thread #1 | 46 comments
Aahhhhhhhh!! (4.00 / 2)
Not that I'm anxious or anything.  
I know the feeling... (4.00 / 3)
I keep thinking PA and then thinking New Hampshire Primary... and I shudder.  

And then I see the hot girl in the snorgtees ad and smile, before I get nervous again.

[ Parent ]
Breathe.... (0.00 / 0)
...preferably into a paper bag if it will help....
[ Parent ]
Idea (4.00 / 1)
Maybe they should just open up a thread called The Panic Room.
Not a place for concern trolls, mind you, but a place where people can just vent and freak out and curse with pure abandon. You know, a safe place to blow off some steam without worrying about alienating/pissing off the rest of the community.
[ Parent ]
brilliant! (4.00 / 1)
take me there now!!!!
[ Parent ]
From your keyboard (0.00 / 0)
to the editors' ears!
For starters, I've got a rant about MSNBC analyst and DLC darling Harold Ford Jr. that needs a safe place to come out.
[ Parent ]
Not that I mind those results... (0.00 / 0)
but should we really have states colored red or blue before any results come in? Even the ostensibly safe ones?
Why (0.00 / 0)
are you worried that California is going for McCain or something?  So which states that he's called do you think could possibly flip?  ...  Yeah, I thought so.  
[ Parent ]
Actually, I'm looking at NM, NH, SD, LA (4.00 / 1)
Anyhow, just an unusual way to do it, I thought.  But it's Chris' website, of course.
[ Parent ]
Well... (4.00 / 1)
I'd probably keep Iowa and NM white until called.  Any flip state to me is still a swing state... especially if PA is in White.
[ Parent ]
we should have all of them colored in red or blue :) (0.00 / 0)
it makes it more fun :)
[ Parent ]
Early calls? (4.00 / 1)
It's pretty early to be calling IA, NM, NH, and WV without any results yet.  At least three of those swung between 2000 and 2004.  They're hardly over.
I'm not sold on the early calls, either (0.00 / 0)
538.com is doing it to. They and Bowers are almost certainly right. But doesn't it feel good to hold out on the idea that Obama could win WV or SD?  

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra
[ Parent ]
I love the CGI room on MSNBC (0.00 / 0)
It's on Courasant! I fully expect the Jedi Council to meet soon and cast their votes.
Coruscant! (4.00 / 1)
Star Wars pride :)  Let's defeat Darth McCain tonight...
[ Parent ]
I just had to go look up (0.00 / 0)
what the hell "Courasant" is.

OK, well I hope most of the Fanboys* are voting Obama!

[ Parent ]
CNN Too (0.00 / 0)
I want their toys so badly.  It's even more ridiculous than it was during the primaries.  /drool
[ Parent ]
OMFG (0.00 / 0)
CNN now.... it is just like freaking Star Wars.

I'm scared.... someone hold me...

[ Parent ]
1% reporting in Indiana (0.00 / 0)
Obama at 55%, McCain at 45%
My feet hurt. (4.00 / 2)
But I'm glad I was out canvassing (IN) most of the day.

Sitting in front of the computer is really stressful!

As your reward.... (0.00 / 0)
...you get your state's results first!

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra
[ Parent ]
Yeah that is nice. (0.00 / 0)
Although at 6pm there were still 175 people in line at Purdue.
I started canvassing at 9am and by 4pm I was totally done. I can't imagine how hard it is to do it all day in the states where they are open till 8pm.

We were clearly canvassing the 'dregs'. People who we hadn't been able to contact through multiple attempts but who we had some minor clue were dems. Most of those were moved, already voted for Obama (just hadn't told us yet) or weren't home.

Clearly the massive weekend hit most of our voters already.  

[ Parent ]
Anyone know why the polls close (0.00 / 0)
so early there? Isn't that only 6pm local time? Seems like it doesn't give much opportunity for after work voting.  
[ Parent ]
I don't know (4.00 / 1)
But it is an insult to the democratic process. I really hope we learn the lesson of this election and the whole country moves towards early voting.  

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra
[ Parent ]
Pelosi v Sheehan (0.00 / 0)
Wow, Sheehan has a LOT of TV ads here (SF) in the last few days. I'm interested in seeing Pelosi's margin.  

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra
on msnbc just now (4.00 / 1)
Nora O'Donnell reporting from NC on msnbc...senior repub insider there tells her that Dole is beaten, and that the demographics of the state do NOT look like usual, said it looks like an "obama tsunami" there and the black vote is enormous.

For what it's worth.

ymmv (your milage may vary)

long night (0.00 / 0)
The polls are closed in Virginia but we will have to wait until the morning for the final results,

Election officials said that because of the heavy turnout voters should not expect final results to come out well into early Wednesday morning.

http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

Let's hope we don't need it! (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Warner wins VA! (4.00 / 2)
Our first Congressional pick up!  
Palin (4.00 / 3)
I just heard Palin say she was "exercising her right to privacy" by not telling reporters who she voted for. She STILL hasn't learned her right wing talking points. Not a bright light that one.
For your amusement (0.00 / 0)
The video clip. lmao!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

McCain called for Stevens to resign but Palin has gone rogue again, refusing to say who she voted for.

[ Parent ]
Notice how her accent (0.00 / 0)
seems to have faded on that clip? What's up with that?

If I didn't know any better, I'd think she's a big phony.

Montani semper liberi

[ Parent ]
Sadie (4.00 / 1)
where have you been.  I've missed you, seriously.
[ Parent ]
Really? Thanks. (4.00 / 2)
The real world sucked me in for a time but how could I spend tonight anywhere but here?

I can't get over the idea that tomorrow, we will wake up and it will be America again.

Montani semper liberi

[ Parent ]
Glad your back (4.00 / 1)
Missed your commentary
[ Parent ]
2% exit poll deficit in GA is promising (0.00 / 0)
That sounds really good considering the amount of early voting.
CNN says Daniels re-elected as IN Gov (0.00 / 0)
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...
IN Governor
Daniels (R-Inc): 57%
Long Thompson:   41%
with 9% reporting.
Only two small rural VA counties reporting (4.00 / 1)
That's why McCain is ahead with 9% reporting.

Indiana looking good! (4.00 / 1)
Love to see her in a new blue dress.
NC Results coming in (4.00 / 1)
http://results.enr.clarityelec...

Nearly one million votes so far.

Obama 57.28% 571,417
McCain/Palin (REP)  42.01% 419,069


Hagan looking mighty good (0.00 / 0)
or maybe I should say, Dole looking very weak ..
[ Parent ]
CNN (0.00 / 0)
Still hasn't called PA... I will feel better when they call it too...
So far so good.
Looks Like (4.00 / 1)
The first Bush state east of the Mississippi that gets called for Obama will put the nail in McCain's coffin, and things are looking good for North Carolina to do the honors.
FoxNews Calls PA for Obama! (0.00 / 0)
Even the wingnuts are falling in line!
msnbc (0.00 / 0)
calling GA for McCain.
I sick of exits! (0.00 / 0)
Let's stop talking about exits! They do not seem to be telling us good info.
Presidential Returns, Thread #1 | 46 comments
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