Presidential Returns, Thread #2

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 20:52

National Popular Vote (98M votes in): Obama 51%-48% McCain

Electoral College
Obama 353--160 McCain

Swing State Returns
All times eastern. First poll closing time listed.

State Reporting Obama% McCain% EVs

Indiana 97% 50% 49% 11

Missouri 86% 48% 50% 11

Montana 34% 51% 46% 3

Update 6: Pile it on: Obama on the way to Indiana, Montana and possibly more landslide. I haven't got any states wrong yet, but I wouldn't mind on Indiana, Missouri, Montana or North Carolina.

Update 5: Obama wins Virginia: Obama takes the lead in Virginia, and Virginia expert Not Larry Sabato calls the state. Good enough for me. Indiana is next.

Update 4: Obama wins Colorado: Obama hits 293, passes, Bush's EV best. Florida and Virginia soon...

Update 3: OBAMA WINS PRESIDENCY: As per the update above, Obama wins Ohio and, therefore, the Presidency. Further, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, and maybe even Indiana and North Carolina to become blue.

Update 2: Colorado exit poll:Obama +7

Update 1: McCain wins North Dakota: Darn. Didn't think it would happen. On the plus side, South Dakota and Louisiana is too close to call. In fact, so is NE-02.

Chris Bowers :: Presidential Returns, Thread #2

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Presidential Returns, Thread #2 | 27 comments

Oy! Virgina! (4.00 / 1)

I know that I shouldn't worry, yet (from some analysts)... but, wasn't this one supposed to be easier?

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

by: lord_mike @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 01:55:41 AM UTC

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yes, if obama was gonna crush by 10 or more points (0.00 / 0)

he's not. he's merely on track to win by mid single digits

by: Crab Nebula @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:02:33 AM UTC

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Obama has pulled ahead (0.00 / 0)

50%-49% with 79% of precincts reporting.

by: T Maysle @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:56:31 AM UTC

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How have they called PA, but not VA? (0.00 / 0)

Weren't the exit poll numbers very similar? I can't figure out what's going on. I know the Dem counties are going to report later in VA, but it sure doesn't look like he's going to win this state by 9, as per the CNN exit.

by: Haggai @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 01:56:09 AM UTC

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Oh, and they called GA for McCain, despite that exit poll showing him up only 2? (0.00 / 0)

WTF. I knew that early leaked exit polls (before the voting is even done) were BS from the experience last time, but for the moment, it looks like the first reports are pretty shitty even after poll closings.

by: Haggai @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 01:58:25 AM UTC

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Patience on VA. (0.00 / 0)

Per CNN, the exit polls were much clearer on PA

PA - O57 M42
VA - O52 M47

Just glancing at the counties, maybe 10-15% of most of NoVa has reported. Nothing out of Charlottesville (UVa) either.

by: tietack @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:01:47 AM UTC

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Those are totally different from the exits Chris posted in the previous thread (0.00 / 0)

What's up with that?

by: Haggai @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:03:49 AM UTC

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Ah, Josh Marshall is talking about adjusted vs. unadjusted (0.00 / 0)

So I guess it's not just the pre-poll-closing exits that are totally whack.

by: Haggai @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:06:38 AM UTC

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How are the first round of exit polls (0.00 / 0)

reflecting the reality of the few states that've been counted? How far are things sliding toward McCain?

Also, I'm already drunk, so pardon me if I'm no making any sense or sixteen global EV equal victory!

by: JoelN @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:19:36 AM UTC

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Huh. (0.00 / 0)

I was just going to say I wasn't seeing the math in Virginia, but it looks like McCain's lead has suddenly been slashed in half on an additional 3% of the vote in. So maybe it still comes through.

by: Drew J Jones @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 01:59:56 AM UTC

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shaping up to be an awesome evening (0.00 / 0)

so far we have Shaheen beating Sunnunu, Grayson beating Keller, Hagan beating Dole ..

by: T Maysle @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:01:05 AM UTC

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"Arizona too close to call" (4.00 / 2)

on MSNBC. heh.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

by: Hopeful in NJ @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:02:29 AM UTC

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msnbc (0.00 / 0)

calling MI, WI MN for Obama ..

by: T Maysle @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:03:33 AM UTC

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That's awesome (0.00 / 0)

Not just called... CALLED RIGHT AWAY... 4 years ago, that didn't happen.

by: yitbos96bb @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:06:46 AM UTC

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MSNBC calls ND for McCain (0.00 / 0)

Just saw it.

by: Haggai @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:04:37 AM UTC

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ND on your map (0.00 / 0)

is still white, but SD is red.

by: jennysings @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:05:37 AM UTC

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never mind (0.00 / 0)

by: jennysings @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:06:01 AM UTC

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Can anyone get to fivethirtyeight.com? (0.00 / 0)

Maybe Nate didn't buy enough bandwith for tonight.

by: Haggai @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:10:39 AM UTC

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I'm getting through. (0.00 / 0)

But they're not doing anything world-shaking, or anything.

by: JoelN @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:16:21 AM UTC

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Damn.... (0.00 / 0)

1) Valkyrie looks terrible.

2) CNN Online called KY for McConnell

by: yitbos96bb @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:19:29 AM UTC

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Whoa, Fox calls Ohio for Obama? (0.00 / 0)

As per a Josh Marshall update from a couple of minutes ago.

by: Haggai @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:22:14 AM UTC

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PBS just did as well (0.00 / 0)

Ohio for Obama

by: astrolad @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:24:34 AM UTC

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OH CALLED!!! (0.00 / 0)

WOOOOO!!!!

by: leshrac55 @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:24:09 AM UTC

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ABC CALLS OH!!!!! (0.00 / 0)

Doesn't this pretty much determine the race, now?

by: Valatan @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:24:58 AM UTC

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Yep... (0.00 / 0)

Unless McCain wins CA or something. =)

by: leshrac55 @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:27:02 AM UTC

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Remember 2000 (0.00 / 0)

OR some of the previous calls turn out to be wrong. One would hope they (the networks) have learned their lessons, but if some sneaky Secretary of State (or Registrars of Voters) try to start stealing things ...

by: havspace @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:34:50 AM UTC

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Is there an R SoS in any current Obama state? (0.00 / 0)

I would have worried about Ohio in that scenario, if Blackwell were still there.

by: tietack @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:49:31 AM UTC

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Presidential Returns, Thread #2 | 27 comments