WA-08: "Both Sides Should Be Very Nervous"

by: Matt Stoller

Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 16:57


Darcy is currently down by around 1400 votes, around 1%, with what looks like about a third of the vote counted.  It's impossible to tell what's going to happen because the uncounted and counted votes are in clumps with distinct partisan leanings.  That is, the counted votes are not representative of what the uncounted votes will look like.  David Goldstein has the summary of what's going on.

That said, both camps should be very nervous right now.  Later today, and possibly tomorrow, after more early absentees are counted, Darcy will likely regain the lead... and then over the next few days, as the late absentees are added to the tally, that lead will likely slowly ebb away.  To what degree either of these predictions hold true, if at all, depends on turnout and the partisan composition of yesterday's electorate, neither of which we know enough about yet from the ballots that have been counted in the district thus far.

There's limited context around the data we have so far, and the elongated vote-counting is very frustrating.  But you can read whatever you want into the data, since the poll voters skew for Reichert and they have been counted, and the early absentees skew for Darcy, and some of them have been counted.  The big clump of votes in the middle is the question.

Matt Stoller :: WA-08: "Both Sides Should Be Very Nervous"

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WA-08: "Both Sides Should Be Very Nervous" | 8 comments
Coattails (4.00 / 1)
Obama clearly had some coattails in WA given how Gregoire out-performed her polling average.

I'm hopeful for Darcy, given that.

Why is this taking so long? (0.00 / 0)
How is it that they've only tabulated ~1/3 of the vote by 2pm the next day?

Comrades! All Hail Pelosi and Obama!
Onward to a greater socialist utopia!
there are a lot more than 1/3 of the votes counted... (0.00 / 0)
...in this race.

king county elections reports 720 of their 747 precincts are counted.

pierce county elections has not provided a "precincts remaining" number, but there are not enough votes in the 8th in pierce county for 2/3 to be uncounted.

as of now, according to the washington secretary of state, a recount is looking highly likely...and one is required if the results are within .5%.

[ Parent ]
i forgot to add... (4.00 / 1)
...that in washington state ballots postmarked by midnight tuesday are valid, and some of those ballots are still in the mail.

we will be a vote by mail state starting in 2010, so ballots arriving after election day will be something that will become the norm, and in races that are this close, we will have to wait a few days to know the final result.

keep in mind what washington voters learned in 2004...it's better to have a slow and accurate count than a quick and inaccurate count.

[ Parent ]
i also forgot to add... (0.00 / 0)
...the vast majority of our ballots are mailed in...and 37 of 39 counties are mail-in only.
[ Parent ]
Actually... (4.00 / 1)
Precinct counts only pertain to the polls.  The vast majority of votes are mailed in and have not been counted yet.

165,928 votes have been counted and I estimate there could be more than 200,000 left to count.

On The Road To 2008: Commentary on issues as we countdown to the next opportunity to change the direction of America

[ Parent ]
no reason to rush, either... (0.00 / 0)
...as i said above, i'll take a good count over a fast count anytime.
[ Parent ]
Margin now down to 614 votes (0.00 / 0)
With the latest report from King County.

On The Road To 2008: Commentary on issues as we countdown to the next opportunity to change the direction of America
WA-08: "Both Sides Should Be Very Nervous" | 8 comments





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