Bad News in WA-08

by: Matt Stoller

Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 11:33


Reichert has taken a 5000 vote lead, and is even up in King County, which was supposed to be Darcy's base.  There are still votes to count, and we have no idea which votes, so it's possible that there are some very pro-Darcy blocs yet to be tallied.  Each batch seems to be getting worse for Burner's totals and better for Reichert.

Damn this one hurts.

Matt Stoller :: Bad News in WA-08

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Bad News in WA-08 | 15 comments
King county includes many rural areas (0.00 / 0)
I assume that rural areas report earlier - that areas such as Snoqualimie and Graham would be more R. I haven't looked - but I'd assume that Darcy's real base is Bellevue and Redmond - substantial cities in their own right. Have they reported fully yet?
Unknown (0.00 / 0)
We have no idea what votes are counted when and who votes when (factoring in absentee).

This happened last cycle.  Burner was up barely on election night; her lead disappeared and Reichert's lead kept growing the the rest of the counting process.

This is over.  I feel kinda sick over this.

[ Parent ]
100k+ votes to be counted (0.00 / 0)
per http://www.vote.wa.gov/Electio...

In 2004, there were 336k votes in WA-08

Per your link, there are 241k votes so far in WA-O8.

Assuming increased turnout, I'd think there are 100k+ votes to be counted.

Take heart, and check again, Matt! (0.00 / 0)
Darcy is back to within 370 votes
Ah, sorry, my mistake (0.00 / 0)
Scratch that, looking at the wrong numbers
[ Parent ]
I'm afraid not... (0.00 / 0)
http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/W...

She's behind 370 or so in King County, but much further behind in Pierce County.

That said, let me throw out some opinion based on past experience and some anecdotal evidence.

Both in the 2006 general race, and in the 2008 primary, Darcy lost in the Pierce County portion of WA-08 by around 6,000 votes.  She is now behind by 5,000 votes, and yet there are probably another 100K+ votes yet to count.  There is always the possibility that the Republicans overperformed getting out their vote in the Pierce County section of WA-08 compared to previous years, but if that were the case, you would see something like Dino Rossi beating or having a very close race against Governor Gregoire in Pierce County, and that didn't happen.

In 2004, Rossi beat Gregoire in Pierce County by around 12,500 votes.  Dave Ross lost the 2004 WA-08 race to Dave Reichert in Pierce County that same year by a little over 13,000 votes.

In the 2008 totals so far, Governor Gregoire is beating Dino Rossi in Pierce County by a little over 9,000 votes.  The odds are that Tacoma, which has a large non-white population, and which isn't in WA-08, had extraordinary turnout for the Democrats.  Nevertheless, you would expect that Pierce County would be at least similar to its last two election tallies for WA-08, if not an improvement for Darcy.

Another piece of info, to take as you wish...I was a poll watcher for one of the poll locations on Mercer Island.  By pure dumb luck, this is where I voted until I switched to absentee ballot in 2005.  I had never seen this location crack 150 votes, loaded as it is with condos and high-turnover apartments.

This year, there were almost 450 poll votes and somewhere between 100 and 150 absentee ballots turned in, and provisional ballots filled out.  Again, this proves nothing, but it is worthy of note.  And if you ask around, much of King County has plenty of similar stories of high poll turnout.

It's a hard call to make, but we might - maybe - be seeing Dave Reichert's highwater mark.

[ Parent ]
This sucks. (4.00 / 2)
Until it's final I will keep hoping.
Again they are (0.00 / 0)
counting achingly slowly.

Anyone know when they start up again today?

-- Stu

Isn't half of theproblem that the votes have to be postmarked (4.00 / 2)
by election day, rather than received?  They're probably just now getting the last few votes.
[ Parent ]
Seattle Times wins this (0.00 / 0)
I'm sure the NRCC will be hosting a "Thank you Seattle Times" celebration bash soon, with special guest, Emily Heffter.

Bastards.

This is so unfortunate (4.00 / 1)
No matter which way it falls, Darcy couldn't have fought any harder than she did, or overcome more obstacles than she did.  This is one very spunky lady.  And, it's a true blue loss if Reichert wins.
IF she doesn't win - she'd make a great deputy CTO (0.00 / 0)
Assuming President-elect Obama goes with the new idea of a Chief US Technology Officer, I could see Eric Schmidt (Current Google CEO) as CTO, and Darcy as her deputy.
[ Parent ]
Can someone explain to me (0.00 / 0)
Why this particular race takes so long to count?  I find that particularly odd that a highly contested race magically takes so long to count.


NoSlaves.com  


The Economic Populist
WA system - mail in absentees (0.00 / 0)
They have a "no-excuse required" absentee system. When I lived in WA, most voters mailed in their ballots - so it's like more than half do so.

And perhaps 1/3 of voters mail in their ballots on election day. They're good as long as they're postmarked on election day - from wherever.

If I remember right, ballots were sealed in one envelope, then sealed in a second envelope with the voter signature.

The voter signature is manually read, verified, and then unsealed. Then the second envelope is also unsealed. Then the ballot can be collected for processing (optical scan, I think). Then a bunch of ballots can be sent through a reader for counting. It's a labor intensive process.

But I'm citing this all from memory, so I could be all wet on this.

[ Parent ]
so (0.00 / 0)
Oregon's entire system is this and I note that all of the other districts the votes are already counted....it's just this magically, this race.

Doesn't add up.

NoSlaves.com  


The Economic Populist

[ Parent ]
Bad News in WA-08 | 15 comments
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