Sour Grapes In Nebraska

by: Daniel De Groot

Sun Nov 09, 2008 at 18:00


So imagine you're a state that has given its electoral college votes to Republican candidates in every election except for the very biggest Democratic landslides, and has done so for 11 straight elections.  But you have this very cute provision, whereby some of your state's electoral college votes can be peeled off, if the other party manages to win in any of the state's federal congressional districts.  Now of course, this has never happened since the rule was put in place, so it was just a bit of cute trivia for election geeks to blather about, but no one expected it to actually happen.

Then one election, it actually does.  Now you're the State's dominant party, the Republican party.  What do you do?  

Why, end the system and go back to a winner-take-all, of course.

Daniel De Groot :: Sour Grapes In Nebraska

Nebraska GOP chairman Mark Quandahl said the Republican Party wants to "put Nebraska in line with the 48 other states in the union that are allocating their electoral votes the correct way."

He said they'll urge a state senator to introduce a bill to repeal the unusual arrangement next year, but he objects to suggestions his party is being a bad sport.

"Pshaw. That isn't true," Quandahl said.

Strong rebuttal there, Mr Quandahl.  

More:


David Kramer with the Republican Party says it has nothing to do with the increased number of registered democrats. "I think it's a question of fairness." Kramer says the system only works for the democrats. Kramer says, "If it's good for us here than it ought to be good for us in California, in New York and those places where democrats would fight tooth and nail to make sure this kind of proposal never ever got passed." 80-year-old Helen Houston, who lives next door to De Mott, agrees.

Registered republican, Helen Houston says, "I think it has sparked a lot of energy but I still feel we need to be the same as the rest of the country." Republicans have tried to change the system in the past in 19-95 and 97, both times former Democratic Governor Ben Nelson vetoed it.

The chances the voter system will change next year depend on Nebraska's legislature. With new senators coming in, it depends which party gets the majority of the seats.

More:


The Obama campaign mounted an unprecedented field operation in Omaha, registering new voters and prompting a record outpouring of early voters.

Last one:


Obama ignored Nebraska's history this year, sending 16 paid staffers into the 2nd District and opening three offices in Omaha.

It seems perfectly clear the law accomplished its intended purpose.  A major party candidate invested time and resources into your state, and managed to swipe an electoral college vote, making it even more likely both parties would invest in Nebraska in 2012.

I guess in the NE GOP's defence, they have been trying to get rid of this law for some time.  Though the current Republican governor has been in office since 2005, and the "non-partisan" (ha!) State unicameral state legislature sat at 31R-15D-3I before the election, so I'm not sure what was stopping them.  

Speaking of the state leg, it appears that the Democrats have gained a couple, bringing them to 17 seats with 2 still undecided.  According to the legislative rules, 1/3 of the legislature can block cloture on bills (the unicameral legislature was originally the Senate so it kept senate-like rules).  A caveat though from that New Nebraska Network link:


On many state and local issues, the "D" or "R" next to a legislators' name does not and should not have a damn thing to do with how they vote and represent their constituents' best interests.  Recognizing that, 17 Democratic votes wouldn't mean a whole lot because there is bound to be too wide a range of interests within such a group - especially on issues that divide urban and rural Nebraska.

So I gather there are a few mini-Nelsons within the NE leg Dems, who will regularly vote with the GOP.  

Anyway, looks like Nebraska will return to national electoral irrelevance in time to prevent 2012's Republican candidate from having to invest any effort into the state.  

At a National Level, this is an opening to talk about real electoral college reform via the National Popular Vote project.  If Republicans want to whine that California wasn't willing to go first in surrendering a massive electoral Democratic advantage, then they should get on board.  Nebraska doesn't even have a legislator willing to introduce a PV bill.  It polls really well even in red states and leaves Republicans in the uncomfortable position of fighting against democracy.  Seems like a winner, NE-Dems.


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I wonder how true this is in Nebraska .. (0.00 / 0)
So I gather there are a few mini-Nelsons within the NE leg Dems, who will regularly vote with the GOP.

It's not like PA .. where you have Philly and Pittsburgh .. and you know what Carville said about the rest .. After all .. how big is Omaha?


Kramer's argument would be really good (4.00 / 1)
If McCain hadn't been talking a few months back about his secret route to 270 through Maine's 2nd congressional district.

If this doesn't work, what are the chances that they just redistrict more of the 3rd district into the other two districts so that this kind of thing isn't possible anymore?

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog


Nebraska and Maine have it right (0.00 / 0)
Frankly, I think Nebraska and Maine have the right idea.    I would like to see the other 48 states convert to their ways.    However, we cannot make the change on a piecemeal basis.     All states should convert at the same time.    

It would be a step towards recognizing the popular vote while preserving our electoral college system.    


Um, no (4.00 / 4)
Allocating electoral votes by congressional district is an absolutely horrible idea. The sad fact is that the vast majority of congressional districts in this country have been gerrymandered to be completely safe for one party or another. Under a congressional district system, whatever party controlled the legislature in a given state would also control that state's electoral votes. Barring truly unusual circumstances, such a system would lead to all the presidential elections for a decade being decided during the redistricting process at the beginning of the decade.

The current system of winner-take-all by state isn't great, but it's a hell of a lot better than allocating electoral votes by congressional district, most of which are about as politically diverse as Hawaii or Idaho.


[ Parent ]
I agree (0.00 / 0)
Have not read my Constitution recently; do you need a Constitutional Amendment to eliminate the electoral college?  The NE, ME way seems much more rational, and easier to pull off.  It would blend popular vote with state's interests.

However, given the current 08 electoral college map, if we had this system, Obama would have lost and bunch of votes.  He gains a few in TX and GA, but not too many other places.  He loses several votes in several states.

The current EC system benefits Democrats, since they almost win all the heavily populated states, with OH and FL being swing states.

Popular vote is the most fair, but then states lose their power in the elections.  I doubt most of them would want to support that.

Nevertheless, the current system is whack.    

www.progressivemovement.net, talking about how progressives can improve their messaging.


[ Parent ]
the answer is yes and no (4.00 / 2)
You would need a constitutional amendment to eliminate the electoral college.  It's virtually impossible.

But, you could have a binding agreement among states to allocate their electoral college votes to the winner of the national popular vote (rather than the states's individual winners.)  If 270 EV worth of states passed such an compact, then it would bring about national popular vote without amending the constitution.  So far only a few states have approved.  



New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.


[ Parent ]
This Is The Right Way To Do It (4.00 / 3)
Doing it by individual CD only makes the political stakes of redistricting that much higher, thus encouraging even more safe districts, and greater disregard for the voters.  All the wrong incentives.

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

[ Parent ]
I agree (0.00 / 0)
Because the urban/rural political divide continues to widen in this country, Democratic districts tend to be packed to the gills, thus giving Republicans more districts than they would be expected to attain in a more parliamentary system. Just look at the districts in Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, and tell me that they are drawn for any good reason besides electing more Republicans.

However, I am actually in favor of the electoral college -- I think it accounts very well for our dual sovereignty (the people writ large at the federal level, and the people at the state level) system. However, in the current arrangement I do think that it gives too much power to the small states in the Presidential election, way out of proportion to what they deserve (thus literally proposing an equal protection problem, were it not written into our Constitution). Solution: I would try and pass a law increasing the number of representatives to approximately 600. Small state Senators would probably band together to defeat such an idea, but it's worth the effort and the debate it would provoke. Wyoming and Alaska and the Dakotas would continue to have undue influence, but a reduced such influence.  


[ Parent ]
Ooops! (4.00 / 2)
It seems like only a few short months ago that California Republicans were trying to change California's law so that it, too, would allocate EC electors by CD.  It was only fair, they said.  And it would draw lots of national attention to the state, fighting over the 2-3 districts that just might possibly flip if someone spent $5-$10 million in one of them.

And now Nebraska GOP chairman Mark Quandahl is telling us we're allocating our electoral votes "the correct way"?

Can we have him come out here to California and lecture the CA GOP, just in case they get any smart-ass ideas for 2012?

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"


do you think (0.00 / 0)
the GOP would only net 2 or 3 EV's from California if it had Nebraska's system?  Or was that just the GOP talking point?

Because a quick check says, what, 19 GOP members in CA's delegation for the 110th.  That's a free Ohio for them.  

It will be interesting to see if this debate remains a little Nebraska story, or if it gains any national attention.  Obama winning the EV should help.  Let's shake the tree of anti-democratic Republican sentiment and see what falls out.


[ Parent ]
Oh, That's Not What I Meant (4.00 / 2)
The whole point of this was to steal 19 or 20 EVs.  It was just the boguis talking point that it would make California a hotbead of national competetition.  But the reality is there are virtually no districts that would be competetive, as I said in the original comment.

It was just a pathetically thin lie to cover the attempted theft of the EC equivilent of Ohio.

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"


[ Parent ]
Ah, I see now (0.00 / 0)
Yes, unless coupled with a solution to gerrymandering, the Nebraska/Maine plan is not a good national template.

[ Parent ]
I can't say I blame them (4.00 / 2)
If Minnesota tried to unilaterally change the way our electoral votes are allocated, changing it from pretty much a guaranteed 10 EVs for the Democrats to what could be a 5-5 split (In a close election where the Republican managed to take MN-01, 02, 03, 06, & 07), I think most DFLers here would fight it, just as Democrats did in California.

These type of things have to happen in every state at once or no states at all.  I'd prefer just abolishing the electoral college and going by the popular vote.  Then all states would be important and voter turn-out should increase almost everywhere.

"Never separate the life you live from the words you speak" -Paul Wellstone


yes (4.00 / 1)
But MN is usually considered a swing state, one in which Presidential candidates have to campaign in, even if it is more Democratic.  Absent this law, no one is really going to campaign in NE, since its outcome is nigh predetermined.

As it stands, I'd say Nebraska and Maine balance each other out fairly well in this regard.  If Collins and Snowe can keep their seats in the midst of two Democratic wave elections, ME-02 is not out of reach to the right Republican Presidential candidate.

Anyway, Obama was never going to win NE-02 except in a big-win scenario where he didn't need it.  It will be a safe EV for the GOP in any kind of actual close election, with or without this law.  


[ Parent ]
the National Popular Vote bill (0.00 / 0)
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Every vote would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections.

The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes-that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The bill is currently endorsed by 1,181 state legislators - 439 sponsors (in 47 states) and an additional 742 legislators who have cast recorded votes in favor of the bill.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes - 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote...  


Small States are the most disadvantaged (4.00 / 1)
The small states are the most disadvantaged of all under the current system of electing the President. Political clout comes from being a closely divided battleground state, not the two-vote bonus.

Small states are almost invariably non-competitive in presidential election. Only 1 of the 13 smallest states are battleground states (and only 5 of the 25 smallest states are battlegrounds).

Of the 13 smallest states, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Alaska regularly vote Republican, and Rhode Island, Delaware, Hawaii, Vermont, Maine, and DC regularly vote Democratic. These 12 states together contain 11 million people. Because of the two electoral-vote bonus that each state receives, the 12 non-competitive small states have 40 electoral votes. However, the two-vote bonus is an entirely illusory advantage to the small states. Ohio has 11 million people and has "only" 20 electoral votes. As we all know, the 11 million people in Ohio are the center of attention in presidential campaigns, while the 11 million people in the 12 non-competitive small states are utterly irrelevant. Nationwide election of the President would make each of the voters in the 12 smallest states as important as an Ohio voter.

The fact that the bonus of two electoral votes is an illusory benefit to the small states has been widely recognized by the small states for some time. In 1966, Delaware led a group of 12 predominantly low-population states (North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa, Kentucky, Florida, Pennsylvania) in suing New York in the U.S. Supreme Court, arguing that New York's use of the winner-take-all effectively disenfranchised voters in their states. The Court declined to hear the case (presumably because of the well-established constitutional provision that the manner of awarding electoral votes is exclusively a state decision). Ironically, defendant New York is no longer a battleground state (as it was in the 1960s) and today suffers the very same disenfranchisement as the 12 non-competitive low-population states. A vote in New York is, today, equal to a vote in Wyoming--both are equally worthless and irrelevant in presidential elections.

The concept of a national popular vote for President is far from being politically "radioactive" in small states, because the small states recognize they are the most disadvantaged group of states under the current system.  

As of 2008, the National Popular Vote bill has been approved by a total of seven state legislative chambers in small states, including one house in Maine and both houses in Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Vermont.  It has been enacted by Hawaii.  


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