GOP Set To Drive Off A Cliff

by: Paul Rosenberg

Sun Nov 09, 2008 at 18:45


Unlike the Versailles punditalkcrazy, which remains deeply enamored of the mythical "center-right country" they think America is, the real, actual American people--also known as the electorate, citizens, folks, what-have-you--are quite clear-eyed about why the Republicans lost this election: they're just too damn concervative!  The evidence from the post-election Democracy Corps report, "The Change Election Awaiting Change", could not be clearer [click image for wider version]:

That's how the American people see things.  But the majority of the subset of Republican voters disagrees [click image for wider version]:

Paul Rosenberg :: GOP Set To Drive Off A Cliff

This is, of course, precisely the line being spouted by hard-core movement conservative mouthpieces.  But it's also quite congruent with the dominant line from the "bi-partisan" side of Versailles: Repubicans were not too extreme, ergo Obama should be very careful to listen to everything they have to say, and ignore his base instead.

The American people, on the other hand, think that it's the Republican Party that needs to move to the center [click image for wider version]:

But the majority of the Republican base agrees with Versailles--they're not the ones who need to move to the center! [click image for wider version]:

One immediate consequence of all the above is a split in attitudes on whether Republicans should work together with Obama.  Yeah, that should work out fine. It's not just that the American people overhwelmingly want the Republcians to work with Obama, giving him the benefit of the doubt [click image for wider version]:


There's a longer-term aspect to this as well.  Obstruct progress in dealing with the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression?  Smooth!  Because last time, the American people forgot the GOP=financial ruin equation far too quickly.  This time, we want it to stick.

Another consequence is attitudes towards Sarah Palin. Note how prominently Palin figures in reasons to reject McCain [click image for wider version]:

Meanwhile, Think Progress plays up how popular Palin is among Republicans as a candidate for 2012:

Poll: 64 percent of Republicans want Palin to run for president in 2012.

In a new Rasmussen poll out today, Republicans overwhelmingly say that they want Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as their presidential nominee in 2012. Sixty-four percent of GOP respondents said that Palin would be their top choice in 2012:

    When asked to choose among some of the GOP's top names for their choice for the party's 2012 presidential nominee, 64% say Palin. The next closest contenders are two former governors and unsuccessful challengers for the presidential nomination this year - Mike Huckabee of Arkansas with 12% support and Mitt Romney of Massachusetts with 11%.

    Three other sitting governors - Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Charlie Crist of Florida and Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota - all pull low single-digit support.

In the same poll, 69 percent of Republicans said that Palin "helped John McCain's bid for the presidency," even though exit polls found that 60 percent of voters felt that she was "not qualified to be president if necessary." (HT: John McCormack)

But it gets even better.  In contrast to McCain, the chief negative against Obama was lack of experience--a point on which he already has Palin beat.  After four years as leader of the free world?  All I can say is, Palin 2012?  Bring it on! [click image for wider version]:

If folks think the GOP is in a bad state right now, just imagine what it will be like once it's "fixed" its problems by moving sharply to the right.  Those problems will be fixed, all right.  Fixed in place for the next 30 years or so.

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GOP Set To Drive Off A Cliff | 12 comments
The Debates (4.00 / 3)
This whole thing reminds me of the "analysis" of John McCain's debate performances. All The Villagers could talk about was his "performance" (physical and verbal style, etc.) They could never bring themselves to talk about the substance of what he was saying (leaving aside, of course, all jokes that there was no real substance).

No one in The Village could even bring themselves to ask the basic question: is McCain losing these debates not because he's not smooth, but because his ideas aren't popular?

They've Grown So Accustomed To Lies Prevailing (4.00 / 1)
that one can almost forgive them.  I mean, when's the last time it actually mattered if something a natioanl poltiician said was true?

And if truth doesn't matter on whit, then why shouldn't a smooth delivery be the most important factor in determining if an idea is popular?  So, focus on the smooth delivery, and the popularity will take care of itself.

After all, that's how it works with them.  Why should the American people be any different?

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
One good thing (4.00 / 2)
did come out of the debates: Darrell Hammond doing John McCain - especially in the "town hall" debate. Unforgettable.

Yes, this is also the one where Bill Murray asks his question about the Cubs.

[ Parent ]
wow (4.00 / 1)
An explicit rejection of conservativism.  Amazing.  Take that, center-right canard!
How could they have asked (0.00 / 0)
what was to blame for the Republicans losing in 2008 in October of 2008?
Who Said Anything About October??? (0.00 / 0)
From Democracy Corps:

A survey of 2,000 voters taken during and immediately after the November 4, 2008, general election shows that Sen. Barack Obama's historic victory in the presidential race spearheaded a sea-change election. It marks the end of the conservative era that has dominated our politics since 1980 and the beginning of a new era of progressive reform, driven by an emerging progressive majority.


"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3
[ Parent ]
I believe... (0.00 / 0)
the question referred to the first graph: "Voters Blame Republican Loss on Them Being Too Conservative" which compares October 2008 and Post Election 2008 answers to this question.

But more importantly:  How did the Republicans lose because the voters were too conservative?  And what role in this election did ambiguous modifiers play?  

:)

[ Parent ]
GOP crashing? Media will cushion the blow. (0.00 / 0)
While it's all well and good that GOP may drive itself off a cliff, it can't be overstated the degree to which the corporate media will do all it can to speed up their* rebuilding process. Remember: conservatism can never fail the people, only people can fail conservatism.

*I know that's an ambiguous sentence, but in this case,  "their" = both the GOP and the corporate media who would like to keep the deregulation gravy train rolling.

The move to the right has very soft support (0.00 / 0)
Much of what you said I agreed with, but look at the one area where soft support massively outnumbered hard support - support amongst Republicans for the idea that they lost because they weren't right-wing enough.

To me, that suggests that they're fundamentally lost. They think they should be a little more conservative, but not necessarily on everything, and they may even be receptive to a successful Obama administration.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog

True, But (0.00 / 0)
Then when you go down to the question of what they need to win in the future, the hard support for moving right is 40, compared to soft support of 13.  For my money, this figure is more telling, being about the future, rather than the past.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3
[ Parent ]
I have said repeatedly that the GOP will become more extreme, (4.00 / 1)
not less, in the wake of this defeat.

They're going to remake themselves as an American Nationalist Party of skinheads and religious zealots, seeking to recreate their idea of the lily-white, Christianized America of the 19th century, freed of all impure ungodly influences like immigrants, Muslims, homosexuals, and liberals.

Demographics don't favor them in the long term, like say, over the next twenty-five years. There aren't going to be enough white people who buy into this kind of thing anymore.

But in the next ten, they just might be able to overturn the apple cart and seize power, assuming a) the Democrats remain in the thrall of big business and b) the theocrats play their hand just right.

You Could Be Right, But (4.00 / 2)
I'm more worried about (a) their possible turn toward widespread violence, which we only got a fairly mild taste of with the Militia Movement in the 1990s, and (b) the continued ineffectiveness of the Dems, just sort of limping along, buoyed by demographics, so they can continue avoiding the hard work that needs to be done to get our country, and industrial civilization generally, back on the right track.

However, that's not to say that I think your scenario is out of the question.  It very clearly is not.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
GOP Set To Drive Off A Cliff | 12 comments





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