Begich To Win Alaska After All

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Nov 13, 2008 at 03:07


After eight days of waiting, Alaska finally started counting votes again. With about 30,000 votes remaining to be counted, one-third of which are from Democratic-friendly precincts and two-thirds of which are "questionable" ballots that always favor Democrats, Begich currently holds an 814 vote lead.

Stick a fork in this one. Begich is going to win. Better Democratic Senate candidates remain undefeated. Now, a victory from either Franken or Martin will deliver the Employee Free Choice Act, and structurally shift the country to the left. This win is a huge boost. We are almost at the point where Republicans just don't matter anymore.

The one drawback: Sarah Palin as a Senator would have been pretty funny.

Chris Bowers :: Begich To Win Alaska After All

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Begich To Win Alaska After All | 32 comments
There you go again! (0.00 / 0)
Declaring victory early!

Someone better put a watch on those ballots...  the Lt. governor, Sarah's BFF, is in charge of elections there, and I bet she's telling him to "fix it" so that she can get that Senate seat!

I'm not going to rest easy on this one until it is all said, done, and certified!

Probably should send some money to the DSCC or Begich's way so that we can get all the lawyers we are going to need for this one!

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

Maybe... (4.00 / 1)
I'm starting to think Palin may pull a Primary challenge against Murkowski... She hates that family any way... she took out Dad, then she can take out daughter.  
[ Parent ]
She is almost guaranteed to do that... (0.00 / 0)
...but, that is two years from now... We can deal with that one later...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
Why would Palin want the Senate seat? ... (4.00 / 1)
as Gov. ... who is going to tell her what to do? ... as Senator .. she is one among 100 .. while it is a powerful and exclusive club ... it's not the same thing
[ Parent ]
Adds to her Washinton cred? (4.00 / 2)
Her biggest* problem, politically, is the lack of serious national policy cred. If Mrs. Wasilla goes to Washington, she can give the impression that she's boning up on policy, which is hard to do credibly from her current position.

* Yes, I understand her real problem as a presidential candidate is that she's both crazy and stupid. But she's a Republican, so neither of those features is a hindrance within the party; they're actually an asset.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

[ Parent ]
Stupid like a rock... (4.00 / 1)
Wait a minute...
[ Parent ]
disagreed (0.00 / 0)
She doesn't need experience; she needs mastery, which experience can be a proxy for.
[ Parent ]
As the one poster mentioned, she needs some national cred.... (0.00 / 0)
Also, Chuck Todd pointed out that Palin is handicapped against other republican attacks 'cos she's in a time zone far away from the action.  Thee would be at least a 5 hour delay from attack to response...  Remember, the Republican establishment is desperately trying to take her down!  Being in Washington makes it easier for her to hold her ground politically....

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
There will still be a recount (0.00 / 0)
either way, I assume? Followed no doubt by long litigation. Things are looking remarkably good for Begich at the moment, but there's a long road ahead. I just hope we know how many Dems are in the Senate by January 20.
[ Parent ]
only a recount (0.00 / 0)
if the final margin is less than .5% and the candidate requests it. Not sure what happens if it is more than .5% (which it very likely will be).
[ Parent ]
While I was there for the count, Stevens folks were cranky... (4.00 / 2)
...they didn't like that there were a number of Districts where McCain/Palin were wayyy ahead and Stevens lost the district.  They thought that "wasn't right."

It's because a number of the Independents and Republicans with scruples about electing a felon voted early or absentee!

I have a bunch more (with pictures) in the diary on the right.

Palin as Senator... (4.00 / 2)
Funny, but disastrous.  The further away this woman is from any levers of power the better it is for our country.
I think you're right (4.00 / 3)
A gift for comedians and satirists, Palin shifts US politics and discourse even further to the right. Any hope she has of getting the GOP nomination must be fought off. I know some see her candidacy in 2012 as a tactically good thing for the democrats, but in the long run she actually demeans US politics in a way that is dangerous for democrats too.  
[ Parent ]
Nah (4.00 / 1)
She shines a bad light on conservatism. Her stupidity and insanity will drive people away from the right, not draw them toward it.

You might be right though; it's best to be on the safe side. Any little scrap of power she gets her hands on would be a disaster. The babysitter knows well enough not to let little Sarah play with matches, but it's best to keep them out of reach anyway, just in case.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

[ Parent ]
I'd rather see people I'm more comfortable with... (4.00 / 1)
In a position to possibly obtain power.  Yeah, I guess that could make winning "harder", but I'd rather the possibility of losing be less than terrifying.The McCain-Palin ticket still won about 46% of the vote, and that's still scary (and perhaps that wouldn't have been if McCain had been more like his 2000 self and picked a reasonable running mate).  While winning against her in 2012 is still probably a pretty high probability assuming Obama doesn't have a terrible 4 years, I'd rather we never even see that possibility.  In some ways, just obtaining the nomination basically means you get a roughly 50/50 shot of winning the presidency... there are a lot of external events outside of the control of Obama and Palin, and you just don't know what kind of shit can hit that could potentially swing the election away from you.
[ Parent ]
Correct (4.00 / 1)
If Palin had gotten ahold of that Senate seat she could've burnished her credentials and learned just enough policy to have a chance of resurfacing in 2012. I'd rather we just nip that right now.
[ Parent ]
I'm not as concerned with her.. (4.00 / 1)
Unless she learns discipline, she won't survive a national campaign against Obama, unless his ratings are in the toilet.  

Pawlenty is pretty Regular GOP guy...  Again though, he doesn't scare me.

Bobby Jindal concerns me.   I'm not concerned with him in 2012 given his age and having to beat the Obama machine, but 2016 he may be a formidible presence.  We need to figure out a way to take him out.  

My bet... especially if Obama has Approval above 50.... is that Palin and Jindal wait.   Pawlenty may run... but My bet is it will be Mittens, Huck and Gingrich fighting it out for the right to be beaten by Obama.    

[ Parent ]
Charlie Crist (4.00 / 1)
If Crist can stay in the closet long enough, he's a threat in 2012 or 2016. He's very popular in Florida and is burnishing his "I'm a Republican but I'm not crazy" credentials.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!
[ Parent ]
Palin won't wait... (4.00 / 1)
...she can't!  Most of her appeal to the Republican base resides in her good looks.... She's in her mid forties, those looks are starting to fade fast... once she becomes a "frumpy" 50-something, a lot of her appeal to her horny base will be significantly diminished....  She has to strike now... her window of opportunity is very small.

Regardless, she is impetuous and impatient... pure naked ambition with nothing behind it...  She wants it and wants it now!  I don't think she's ever waited for anything in her life.  She was a beauty queen, remember... she's been able to use her looks to pretty much get anything she's ever wanted, including the governorship.  She's not used to being patient and waiting for something.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

[ Parent ]
50 somethings are frumpy?!!!!??? (0.00 / 0)
Thanks for the insult.

I live in a true blue state--I will have a choice in November
[ Parent ]
Begich wins but the rest there is wrong. (4.00 / 1)
To get to 60 votes the Senate Dems need BOTH Franken and Martin. Also, if Stevens had won the Gov. in Alaska no longer appoints a replacement by state law as the previous Gov. appointed his daughter.
Get ready for the Mea Culpa.... (0.00 / 0)
1)  Employee Free Choice act has 1 GOP supporter in Arlen Spector.  The Cloture vote in 07 was 51-48 with 1 (Johnson) Not Voting.   As long as Spector votes with us again, then we need a total of 59 votes... breaking down to Sanders, Joementum and 57 other Dem Senators.  So we just need 2 of Franken, Martin and Begich.    

2)  He knows that She can't appoint herself....  The CW is she would run for and probably win the seat in a Special Election.

[ Parent ]
Just attach EFCA to something with more popularity (0.00 / 0)
like SCHIP.

John McCain won't insure children
[ Parent ]
No thanks (4.00 / 5)

Sarah Palin as a Senator would have been pretty funny.

I'm sick and tired of hearing about her. Kind of like Dubya: funny at first, not so funny after a bit. Her shelf life was a bit shorter than his, though.

Bush becomes funny all over again come January (0.00 / 0)
I'm actually quite looking foward to seeing what he gets up to.
[ Parent ]
Sorry (4.00 / 1)
2010 - Lisa Murkowski will be toast...Senator Sarah Palin, ain't no stopping her now...
[ Parent ]
Agreed... (4.00 / 1)
...but, that is two years from now... who knows what will happen in the meantime...

There is a the strong possibility that Palin has a major scandal up there (she's as corrupt as the winter night is long in Alaska), along with the republican establishment against her, that we could have the possibility that she declines to run for governor, runs for the Senate and loses, and she'll be out on her ear...

If she does win in 2010, it's more likely that she will pass on a 2012 nomination... which is the only real worry here...  If she runs in 2016, we can still throw a rehabilitated Hillary out there to crush her to bits if she ever received the nomination.


REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

[ Parent ]
Palin Is A Phenomena (0.00 / 0)
She embodies the visceral qualities that appeal to those just like her, which I'm guessing could be 50% of the Republican party or more - that's why they are so concerned.

She's Evita, she's Jimmy Swagert, she's a train wreck you can't stop watching.

I agree that her fate is in the hands of Alaska, if she can't move up to Senate she's done.  How populist is the party up there?  Would she have a chance against Murkowski?  

PS in 2016 Hillary is pushing 70...

[ Parent ]
recount (0.00 / 0)
don't forget about possible recount.
Time to Double Down on Martin (0.00 / 0)
I have a lot of faith that Franken's going to win the recount, and it appears Begich is more than likely to win. There's no reason for the Democratic Party not to pull out the stops for Jim Martin.
WHAT?! (4.00 / 2)
"We are almost at the point where Republicans just don't matter anymore."

May I remind you that it was only four years ago that Karl Rove spoke of a "permanent Republican majority."

Republicans matter and always will.  Political change can come very swiftly in this country.  Don't ever forget that.

One must always expect the worst. (0.00 / 0)
I appreciate Chris' optimism, however, one shouldn't trumpet it across the world.

For example, never, ever go into a hospital ER and remark on how quiet it is--the staff will kill the moron who does it.  Within minutes the place will be insane.

Chickens and eggs anyone?

Hope you're right, though.

I live in a true blue state--I will have a choice in November

Begich To Win Alaska After All | 32 comments
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