First, according to the Democracy Corps survey, take a look at the concerns McCain voters had about Obama (emphasis mine):
Q.49 (DO NOT ASK IF VOTED FOR BARACK OBAMA AND DIDN'T CONSIDER IN CHCEJM) Let me read you a list of doubts about Barack Obama. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Barack Obama?
Too inexperienced and too big a risk to be commander-in-chief.............................................................41
Wrong on abortion, gay marriage and restricting guns.......32
Would redistribute wealth and introduce socialism.............29
Would raise my taxes..........................................................23
Would increase taxes on small business and hurt the economy..............................................................................21
Too ready to retreat in Iraq and weaken our national security................................................................................21
Associates with people and groups that make me uncomfortable......................................................................20
Would increase government spending................................14
His health care plan is too government-run.........................13
Would give Democrats too much control in Washington.....13
Would end up catering to minority groups and not working for all.......................................................................9
Is out of touch with working people......................................3
(All).......................................................................................6
(Other)..................................................................................1
(None)..................................................................................5
(Don't know/ refused)...........................................................2
The negative attack on Obama with the most impact was his lack of experience. By comparison, the attacks on Ayers and Wright that the McCain campaign and Republican third-party groups engaged in during the final weeks had minimal impact, with less than half as many people citing that as a negative reason to vote against Obama. Further, most of the other attacks listed here focus on socialism, taxes and big government. However, as a campaign focal point, those were losing attack as exit polls showed a majority of the country in favor of government expansion. This is important because it shows just how deeply McCain wounded himself by selecting Sarah Palin. The winning attack was neither opposing "big government" nor Obama's associates, but rather Obama's lack of experience.
However, as we can see with the top concern Obama voters had about McCain, rather than reinforcing McCain's "experience" message with his vice-presidential selection, instead Sarah Palin emerged as the top concern about John McCain:
Q.50 (DO NOT ASK IF VOTED FOR JOHN MCCAIN AND DIDN'T CONSIDER IN CHCEBO) Let me read you a list of doubts about John McCain. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for John McCain?
Picked Sarah Palin as his running mate..............................37
Would give tax breaks to the rich and big corporations and not to the middle class..................................................35
Would continue Bush's policies...........................................34
Would stay in Iraq................................................................28
Would privatize Social Security and cut Medicare benefits................................................................................22
Would tax health care benefits and give insurance companies more power.......................................................22
Ran a negative campaign rather than say what'd he do.....20
Would help end a woman's right to choose on abortion......17
Is too old to be president.....................................................16
His erratic response to the financial crisis...........................14
Supports outsourcing and bad trade deals...........................8
Would cut government spending and services.....................4
(All).......................................................................................4
(Other)..................................................................................1
(None)..................................................................................2
(Don't know/ refused)...........................................................2
The focus of Obama's negative messaging was McCain's ties to Bush and plans to deliver tax breaks to big corporations. While those lines of attack were clearly effective, Palin still narrowly emerged as the top concern. This was a serious problem for McCain, because it undercut his effective attacks on Obama's lack of experience, and because it was a "free" attack that Obama never really had to make himself. It even undercut the positive messaging from the McCain campaign:
[877 Respondents]
Q.47 (ASK ONLY VOTED FOR JOHN MCCAIN) Now let me read you a list reasons to support John McCain. Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for John McCain?
Total
Is a strong leader and would be a strong commander-in-chief.................................................................................48
Would drill for oil and explore all energy sources for energy independence..........................................................30
Supported the surge and would not retreat in Iraq..............28
Picked Sarah Palin as his running mate..............................28
Was a P-O-W and has always put country first...................26
Is a maverick who works with both parties..........................19
Would cut taxes...................................................................17
Would end earmarks and pork barrel spending..................14
I just couldn't vote for Barack Obama..................................13
Would stabilize home prices and help fix the financial crisis....................................................................................11
Is a reformer who would lessen the influence of special interests...............................................................................11
His health care plan gives everyone a $5,000 credit and more choice...................................................................7
(All).......................................................................................5
(Other)..................................................................................3
(None)..................................................................................1
(Don't know/ refused)...........................................................1
McCain picked Palin at least partially in order to appeal to voters who do not traditionally vote for Republicans. Given the unfavorable political environment for Republicans in 2008, appealing to such voters was necessary for McCain. However, Palin ended up as a net drag on the ticket, both because she undermined the most effective messaging from the McCain campaign ("experience"), and also because noticeably more people identified her as a concern (37%) than as a benefit (28%). The solution would have been for McCain to choose a woman or a minority with less baggage, more experience, and a higher level of campaign competence.
However, McCain was trapped on this front. With no Republican ethnic minorities holding statewide office, the obvious choice, Condoleezza Rice, refused consideration for the VP slot. Further, Colin Powell didn't even support John McCain. (Update: Rice and Powell might both be pro-choice, thus nixing them anyway.) Among women, all Republican Senators except for Elizabeth Dole are pro-choice. Further, this is also, at last by wingnut standards, the case for Jodi Rell and Linda Lingle, the other two women Republican Governors apart from Palin. Joe Lieberman fits this bill, too. So, as far as non-traditional picks go, Sarah Palin, Elizabeth Dole (who was busy losing re-election at the time) and Mel Martinez (also inexperienced and favored immigration reform) were the only available options who had a chance to be approved by the hard, anti-choice delegate base at the Republican convention. Or, at least, those three were the only options that the theocons wouldn't despise, and cause them to turn away from McCain in large numbers.
Thus, McCain was simultaneously trapped by a political environment where he was forced to appeal to voters who are not traditionally Republican, by a party that has virtually no women and minorities in positions of power and also by a party which will not accept anyone but a social conservative at the top of the national ticket. In a search for socially conservative women or minorities in positions of power in the Republican Party, Sarah Palin was one of very few options for the job. Given that Mel Martinez was almost as inexperienced as Palin, and given Dole's general unpopularity and advanced age, even though Palin ended up being a drag on the ticket and undermining McCain's messaging, McCain didn't really have any better options.
It is possible, even likely, that if McCain had selected someone like Romney, he would have performed better in the election. However, he still would have lost, since Romney provides no new voters for Republicans, especially no new women. The socialist attacks were not enough, and neither were the "traditional values" voters. McCain needed to enhance his effective experience vs. inexperience attack, and combine it with an identity-based appeal to groups less likely to support Republicans. However, the profile of the Vice-Presidential candidate McCain needed--an experienced, campaign-ready, social conservative who could appeal to voters (mainly women) who do not traditionally support Republicans--simply was not available. If Condoleezza Rice had accepted the slot (always highly unlikely), and if she was accepted by the Republican base (again, highly unlikely) then--and perhaps only then--McCain might have had a shot. Otherwise, McCain was trapped by his party not only in terms of the anti-Republican environment, but also because of their lack of diversity in elected officials, and even further by the uncompromising social conservatism of their activist base.
To concern troll for a moment, if Republicans want to reverse this situation, they are going to have to start appealing to a wider array of demographic groups, and find a means to free their candidates from the hold of their theocon base. However, given that most Republicans want the party to shift even further to the right, don't hold your breath on that one. |
