Open Left

I was thinking some on this last night. (4.00 / 3)

Pawlenty doesn't have a prayer.  He has to win Iowa, his neighbor state, to be viable I think, and Iowa's going to be a blood bath on the right.  Pawlenty's conservative, but by Republican's current standards he's moderately so.

There are some others you didn't count in the mix as well-

Haley Barbour is headed to Iowa and New Hampshire, but I can't see him really lighting a fire under anyone's feet but lobbyists.

John Ensign is making noise, though I really don't see what he brings to the table other than being a western senator.

Some people talk about Mitch Daniels, but I think he's too tied to Bush to be viable and not dynamic enough to break from the pack.

The one to watch, I think, is Mark Sanford.  He's really been rubbing the radical right's belly as of late and he could very well mount a strong campaign: he's well known among party insiders, meets all the conservative litmus tests, untainted by association with McCain, and he's a Southern white guy (come on, you know they want one).

Of those you mentioned-

Giuliani isn't viable for the reasons you mentioned, and I agree that Jindal probably won't run.

I think Gingrich is just hogging the lime light.  He won't actually run for president, he just enjoys the attention.

If Huckabee is able to raise way more cash than last time, then he's a serious contender.  (He's my former governor, and I never would have imagined that a few years back.)  However, I'm not sure if he'll be able to match Palin's star power.

Even if Huckabee and the others eat up huge chunks of Palin's base she'll still have conservatie women.  Plus she appeals to the gun crowd in ways few ever could with her, shall we say, interesting life style.  She needs to win Iowa, and she could very well do it.

Romney is the one candidate who can stay out of Iowa.  He didn't win it last time and now there's no McCain in the race so he stands a chance of winning New Hampshire.  If he could do that and put to rest some of the base's loathing for him, enough to win primaries where the opposition was split, he could very well be the nominee, and I've got to admit I relish the thought.

The guy that complicates this picture is Jeb Bush.  He'd be the nominee hands down if he wanted it I think, but would Republicans really want to take the chance on another Bush?  Hell, would he even run?

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http://bluearkansas.blogspot.com/

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by: ARDem @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 14:09:28 PM CDT

Sanford's definitely a factor (4.00 / 1)

He's bug-shit insane, but that's not about to stop him.

He'd be a fantastic general election candidate to face. Residual southern identity might flip NC back to the Republicans and take GA off the table, but he'd be too extreme for most of the rest of the country.

We could make a serious play for Montana and the Dakotas, we'd be favoured in Arizona and we could start putting roots down in Indiana and Ohio. Meanwhile, I don't think there are any Obama states bar NC he'd seriously threaten.

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by: Englishlefty @ Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 16:58:46 PM CDT

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